Game plan
Gabriel Diallo v Denis Shapovalov
Every number combines what Gabriel Diallo does well with what Denis Shapovalov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Gabriel Diallo's record against Denis Shapovalov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +6.2 on serve, −7.9 on return vs expectation (253 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Gabriel | Denis |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.28 ±0.06 better than 7% | −0.12 ±0.06 better than 26% |
| Shot selection | +0.45 ±0.13 better than 89% | +0.40 ±0.12 better than 87% |
| Execution | −2.12 ±0.74 better than 2% | −0.72 ±0.35 better than 36% |
| Points left on the table | 2.80 ±0.17 lower than 31% | 3.39 ±0.11 lower than 9% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Gabriel Diallo serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Gabriel wins | v Denis | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 44% | 74% | 71% | 72.6%±5.6 | 41% ▼ |
| Body | 11% | 64% | 63% | 63.5%±10.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 74% | 77% | 76.1%±5.5 | 59% ▲ |
Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Gabriel wins | v Denis | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 72% | 78% | 76.6%±5.3 | 62% ▲ |
| Body | 13% | 62% | 66% | 64.5%±9.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 72% | 70% | 70.0%±6.3 | 38% |
Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Denis Shapovalov serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Denis wins | v Gabriel | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 77% | 77% | 80.9%±5.1 | 51% ▲ |
| Body | 7% | 65% | 60% | 61.6%±11.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 56% | 72% | 77% | 74.0%±5.8 | 49% ▼ |
Optimal v Gabriel Diallo: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Denis wins | v Gabriel | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 75% | 74% | 76.2%±5.9 | 51% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 69% | 65% | 71.0%±10.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 36% | 79% | 75% | 81.8%±4.7 | 49% ▲ |
Optimal v Gabriel Diallo: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Gabriel Diallo returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | +4.3 | −0.7 | −0.8 | +2.8±2.5 |
| FH down the line | 24% | +1.7 | −0.6 | −4.8 | −3.7±4.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 14% | −4.2 | −0.8 | +0.6 | −4.4±2.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 14% | +5.5 | −1.6 | +1.0 | +4.9±3.8 |
| FH slice down the line | 7% | −4.3 | +1.3 | +1.1 | −1.9±2.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (212 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 39% | +6.4 | −1.0 | +2.8 | +8.2±2.2 |
| BH crosscourt | 29% | +8.8 | −1.7 | +3.1 | +10.2±3.1 |
| BH down the line | 15% | +4.2 | −0.7 | −0.3 | +3.2±4.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | −0.2 | +1.0 | −3.4±1.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 5% | +0.5 | −1.0 | +3.6 | +3.2±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (195 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 55% | −3.5 | −2.5 | +0.2 | −5.7±2.4 |
| FH down the line | 25% | −1.8 | +0.1 | −4.3 | −6.0±4.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | −0.2 | −3.5 | +1.0 | −2.7±3.5 |
Lean FH through the middle: −0.5±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (56 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 47% | −2.9 | −4.3 | +1.2 | −6.0±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 38% | +1.0 | −4.4 | −0.9 | −4.3±2.8 |
| BH down the line | 11% | −0.2 | −4.7 | −1.6 | −6.5±4.0 |
| FH through the middle | 4% | −2.9 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −3.4±1.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.0±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (141 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Denis Shapovalov returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Gabriel | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | +4.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +3.8±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | +5.5 | −0.5 | −2.0 | +3.0±3.8 |
| FH down the line | 15% | +1.7 | −4.6 | +1.0 | −1.9±4.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | +1.2 | −1.7 | −4.8±2.2 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 5% | −4.3 | +3.5 | ±0.0 | −0.9±2.7 |
Lean FH through the middle: +2.4±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1294 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Gabriel | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 33% | +6.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +6.8±2.2 |
| BH slice through the middle | 28% | −4.2 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −4.7±2.0 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +4.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +4.3±4.1 |
| BH slice down the line | 10% | −8.4 | +0.9 | +0.4 | −7.1±3.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 10% | +8.8 | −2.5 | −0.1 | +6.1±3.2 |
Lean BH through the middle: +5.6±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2081 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Gabriel | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 58% | −3.5 | −3.8 | +1.9 | −5.3±2.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 27% | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.7 | −1.8±4.1 |
| FH down the line | 12% | −1.8 | −3.0 | +0.4 | −4.4±4.7 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.5 | −3.2 | −2.5±1.7 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | −12.5 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −11.7±2.0 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (406 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Gabriel | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 53% | −2.9 | +1.4 | −3.2 | −4.6±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 20% | +1.0 | +0.5 | −0.8 | +0.7±2.8 |
| BH down the line | 14% | −0.2 | +1.5 | −1.2 | +0.1±4.6 |
| FH through the middle | 6% | −2.9 | +0.1 | +1.9 | −0.8±2.4 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −11.3 | −1.5 | −0.6 | −13.4±2.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1157 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Gabriel Diallo
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return +1 | +2.6±2.2 | +2.2 | +0.4 |
| FH to their backhand · return | ±0.0±3.4 | −1.1 | +1.1 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −0.8±2.1 | +1.0 | −1.8 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | −1.1±2.4 | −0.3 | −0.9 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −1.6±1.6 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | −1.7±2.1 | −1.4 | −0.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · return | −4.4±2.6 | −3.8 | −0.6 |
| FH to the middle · return | −4.1±2.1 | −2.9 | −1.2 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | −3.5±3.2 | +0.5 | −4.0 |
| BH to their forehand · return | −3.1±3.7 | −3.8 | +0.7 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −2.7±2.5 | −3.1 | +0.4 |
Denis Shapovalov
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +2.7±3.6 | +2.5 | +0.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | +1.8±3.3 | −0.2 | +2.0 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +1.7±3.5 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | +1.0±3.1 | −1.5 | +2.5 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +0.7±1.8 | −0.9 | +1.7 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +0.3±2.8 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return | −4.5±3.9 | −5.4 | +0.9 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −3.4±2.4 | −4.2 | +0.8 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.9±2.2 | −0.4 | −2.5 |
| BH to the middle · serve +1 | −2.8±2.4 | −1.6 | −1.2 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −1.8±1.8 | −2.0 | +0.2 |
Against Denis Shapovalov-like opponents
| Gabriel Diallo v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 62.8% | 31.8% |
| Players most similar to Denis Shapovalov | 2 | 70.1% | 27.8% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Rafael Jodar, Jiri Lehecka, Alexei Popyrin, Zizou Bergs, Pierre Hugues Herbert, Tim Van Rijthoven, Vasek Pospisil, Fernando Verdasco, Philipp Kohlschreiber. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.