Game plan

Goran Ivanisevic v Guy Forget

Every number combines what Goran Ivanisevic does well with what Guy Forget allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Goran Ivanisevic wins, best of 3 73%90%: 56%–87% · best of 5: 78%

Serve points won 76.4% / 70.8% Goran / Guy · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 76%serve 74.8% / 68.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Goran Ivanisevic's record against Guy Forget's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.2 on serve, −3.6 on return vs expectation (4187 points); head-to-head: +2.8 on serve, −1.2 on return vs expectation (469 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Goran	Guy
Direction choice	−0.30 ±0.08 better than 5%	−0.23 ±0.08 better than 11%
Shot selection	+0.24 ±0.16 better than 75%	−0.45 ±0.22 better than 13%
Execution	−0.76 ±0.38 better than 34%	+0.22 ±0.56 better than 76%
Points left on the table	4.76 ±0.30 lower than 1%	3.94 ±0.22 lower than 4%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Goran Ivanisevic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Goran wins	v Guy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	82%	76%	84.0%±3.5	34% ▼
Body	5%	63%	67%	66.7%±10.7	0% ▼
T	53%	81%	82%	86.8%±3.6	66% ▲

Optimal v Guy Forget: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Goran wins	v Guy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	81%	81%	87.3%±3.7	44% ▼
Body	3%	66%	69%	72.0%±10.7	0% ▼
T	43%	88%	76%	89.9%±2.7	56% ▲

Optimal v Guy Forget: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Guy Forget serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Guy wins	v Goran	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	37%	78%	79%	83.0%±4.5	33% ▼
Body	9%	59%	68%	63.0%±10.1	0% ▼
T	54%	76%	84%	85.3%±3.4	67% ▲

Optimal v Goran Ivanisevic: +0.8±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Guy wins	v Goran	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	74%	78%	79.6%±4.6	41% ▼
Body	11%	69%	63%	69.0%±9.1	0% ▼
T	46%	84%	78%	87.7%±3.6	59% ▲

Optimal v Goran Ivanisevic: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Goran Ivanisevic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guy	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−3.9	−3.7	−3.4±2.4
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−3.1	+0.1	−1.3±4.0
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+0.8	−1.5	+4.8±4.1
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	−0.2	−0.1	−1.9±1.8
BH inside-in	1%	+7.7	±0.0	−3.4	+4.4±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (827 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guy	Value
BH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−1.7	−0.1	−6.0±1.9
BH through the middle	23%	+6.4	−6.1	−1.2	−0.9±2.3
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	−6.9	+0.3	−2.3±4.1
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	−2.2	−1.2	−2.9±2.8
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	+2.6	+1.2	−4.6±3.3
FH through the middle	1%	+7.7	−3.1	−3.7	+0.9±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +3.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1565 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guy	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	−1.3	−4.1	−8.9±2.6
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	+2.9	−2.1	+0.5±4.2
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	+3.8	−1.3	+0.7±4.6
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	−0.6	−0.9	+0.9±2.8

Lean FH down the line: +4.6±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (355 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Guy	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	−1.7	+0.6	−4.0±1.8
BH down the line	21%	−0.2	+1.4	+1.1	+2.3±4.4
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	−3.6	−0.9	−3.5±2.8
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.4	−4.1	−7.4±2.3
BH slice through the middle	3%	−11.3	−0.5	+1.9	−9.9±2.4
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+4.6	−1.3	+4.2±3.5

Lean FH inside-out: +7.0±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1106 returns charted)

Guy Forget returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	−2.0	−1.9	+0.4±2.6
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.5	+1.5	−4.4	+2.6±4.4
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−1.7	+1.8	+1.8±4.0
FH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	+0.1	−3.2	−7.2±2.1
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−0.2	−0.1	−4.6±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (196 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
BH through the middle	28%	+6.4	+1.7	−2.0	+6.1±2.4
BH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−2.3	−2.0	−8.6±2.0
BH down the line	22%	+4.2	+1.5	−1.2	+4.4±4.3
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	+1.0	+6.7	−0.7±3.4
BH crosscourt	7%	+8.8	−4.2	−4.7	−0.1±3.3

Lean BH through the middle: +5.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (425 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	−2.4	−2.8	−8.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	38%	−0.2	−5.0	−6.2	−11.5±4.2
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	−5.8	+0.6	−7.0±3.9

Lean FH down the line: +2.4±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (106 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	+0.3	−1.1	−3.6±2.0
BH down the line	38%	−0.2	+2.9	−0.5	+2.2±4.4
BH crosscourt	7%	+1.0	−2.3	+1.6	+0.3±2.7
BH slice through the middle	4%	−11.3	+0.2	−0.6	−11.6±2.0
BH slice down the line	4%	−9.3	−1.4	−2.0	−12.8±3.6

Lean BH down the line: +4.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (250 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.