RallyIQ

Game plan

Jack Draper v Hubert Hurkacz

Every number combines what Jack Draper does well with what Hubert Hurkacz allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jack Draper wins, best of 3 75%90%: 52%–90% · best of 5: 80%
Serve points won 69.4% / 63.9% Jack / Hubert · tour 63.5%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 70%serve 69.6% / 65.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Jack Draper's record against Hubert Hurkacz's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +5.5 on serve, +11.5 on return vs expectation (258 points); head-to-head: −2.9 on serve, +2.0 on return vs expectation (831 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerJackHubert
Direction choice+0.10 ±0.07
better than 81%		+0.09 ±0.02
better than 79%
Shot selection+0.26 ±0.13
better than 77%		+0.14 ±0.05
better than 68%
Execution+1.21 ±0.65
better than 98%		−0.38 ±0.15
better than 49%
Points left on the table2.75 ±0.11
lower than 35%		2.49 ±0.04
lower than 62%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Jack Draper +0.91, Hubert Hurkacz −0.21. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jack Draper serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowJack winsv HubertMatchupOptimal
Wide41%71%73%71.7%±4.533% ▼
Body5%60%63%59.9%±10.00% ▼
T54%73%77%75.6%±3.567% ▲

Optimal v Hubert Hurkacz: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowJack winsv HubertMatchupOptimal
Wide51%76%73%76.7%±3.664% ▲
Body6%65%64%66.1%±9.40% ▼
T43%73%73%74.3%±4.336% ▼

Optimal v Hubert Hurkacz: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Hubert Hurkacz serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowHubert winsv JackMatchupOptimal
Wide47%78%72%77.2%±3.360% ▲
Body5%63%62%61.8%±9.80% ▼
T48%80%71%76.8%±3.740% ▼

Optimal v Jack Draper: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowHubert winsv JackMatchupOptimal
Wide53%78%75%80.0%±3.466% ▲
Body4%66%66%68.8%±9.00% ▼
T42%76%71%74.5%±3.934% ▼

Optimal v Jack Draper: +0.1±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jack Draper returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
FH through the middle51%+4.3+0.3−2.1+2.4±1.8
FH crosscourt27%+5.5+0.1−6.7−1.1±3.2
FH down the line14%+1.7−1.2−6.6−6.1±3.5
FH slice through the middle6%−4.2+0.9−2.8−6.0±1.7
FH slice crosscourt2%−4.3+1.5−7.6−10.5±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +3.0±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (427 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
BH through the middle46%+6.4+1.0−1.0+6.5±1.6
BH crosscourt28%+8.8−1.6−5.6+1.6±2.5
BH down the line12%+4.2+2.7−2.7+4.2±3.5
BH slice through the middle8%−4.2−1.0−4.9−10.1±1.9
BH slice down the line3%−8.4+0.6−6.9−14.7±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +4.2±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (581 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
FH through the middle46%−3.5−0.7−1.0−5.2±2.2
FH crosscourt31%−0.2−0.3−4.1−4.6±3.5
FH down the line18%−1.8+3.0−2.9−1.7±3.7
FH slice through the middle4%−12.7−2.1−3.7−18.4±1.9

Lean FH down the line: +3.3±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (179 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv HubertValue
BH through the middle45%−2.9+2.0−0.7−1.6±1.6
BH crosscourt27%+1.0−1.7−5.0−5.7±2.4
FH through the middle9%−2.9+1.5−1.0−2.4±1.8
BH down the line8%−0.2+0.3−1.8−1.6±3.6
FH inside-in6%+0.6−0.3−4.1−3.9±3.4

Lean BH through the middle: +1.3±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (412 returns charted)

Hubert Hurkacz returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JackValue
FH through the middle44%+4.3−0.4+2.1+6.0±1.9
FH crosscourt24%+5.5−2.3+2.4+5.6±3.2
FH down the line21%+1.7−2.0+0.9+0.6±3.4
FH slice through the middle5%−4.2−2.1±0.0−6.3±2.0
FH slice crosscourt5%−4.3−4.4−1.8−10.5±2.4

Lean FH through the middle: +3.0±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (6555 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JackValue
BH through the middle34%+6.4−0.2+1.9+8.1±1.6
BH crosscourt26%+8.8−0.1+1.2+9.8±2.5
BH slice through the middle14%−4.2−3.5−0.8−8.4±1.9
BH down the line10%+4.2−0.9−0.2+3.1±3.6
BH slice crosscourt10%+0.5−6.1+1.8−3.8±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.1±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (6287 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JackValue
FH through the middle44%−3.5+1.4−1.0−3.1±2.1
FH down the line26%−1.8−1.5+1.0−2.2±3.9
FH crosscourt26%−0.2−3.3+1.5−2.0±3.5
FH slice through the middle2%−12.7−3.7+0.7−15.6±2.0
FH slice crosscourt1%−12.5−3.9+0.6−15.8±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.0±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1676 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JackValue
BH crosscourt42%+1.0−1.1−2.7−2.8±2.1
BH through the middle37%−2.9±0.0+0.6−2.3±1.6
BH down the line14%−0.2+0.5−3.4−3.2±4.0
FH through the middle2%−2.9−1.7−1.0−5.6±2.3
BH slice through the middle1%−11.3−1.4±0.0−12.7±1.7
FH inside-in1%+0.6−0.7+1.5+1.3±4.3

Lean FH inside-in: +4.2±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (3803 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Jack Draper

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1+5.3±2.4+4.0+1.3
FH to their backhand · return +1+4.5±2.5+4.2+0.3
BH to their forehand · rally+4.1±1.8+3.0+1.1
BH to the middle · return +1+3.6±1.7+2.8+0.8
BH to the middle · rally+3.6±1.1+2.4+1.2
BH to their forehand · return +1+3.1±3.3+2.3+0.8

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their forehand · return−5.3±3.2−0.2−5.1
FH to their backhand · return−4.5±2.5+1.3−5.8
BH to their forehand · return−3.8±2.6+1.7−5.5
FH to their forehand · return +1−1.8±2.9−1.8±0.0
FH to the middle · return−1.7±1.4+0.1−1.8

Hubert Hurkacz

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their forehand · return +1+1.8±2.8±0.0+1.9
BH to the middle · return +1+1.7±1.9+0.7+1.0
FH to the middle · rally+1.5±1.4+0.6+0.9
BH to their forehand · serve +1+1.5±3.3−0.6+2.1
BH to the middle · return+1.4±1.3±0.0+1.4
BH to the middle · rally+1.3±1.2+0.6+0.8

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1−4.9±2.6−0.8−4.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally−2.9±1.9−1.7−1.2
BH to their forehand · return−2.7±2.5−0.9−1.8
BH to their forehand · return +1−2.6±3.5−3.9+1.3
BH slice to the middle · return−2.5±1.9−2.5±0.0

Against Hubert Hurkacz-like opponents

Jack Draper vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–64.6%37.1%
Players most similar to Hubert Hurkacz2 71.1%47.7%
Hubert Hurkacz (charted head-to-head)5 64.6%36.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Joao Fonseca, Ugo Humbert, Sebastian Korda, Karen Khachanov, Alexei Popyrin, Laslo Djere, David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, Robin Soderling. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head