Game plan

Jack Sock v Francisco Cerundolo

Every number combines what Jack Sock does well with what Francisco Cerundolo allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jack Sock wins, best of 3 56%90%: 28%–82% · best of 5: 58%

Serve points won 63.6% / 62.3% Jack / Francisco · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 57%serve 63.5% / 62.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jack Sock's record against Francisco Cerundolo's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.5 on serve, −1.8 on return vs expectation (243 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jack	Francisco
Direction choice	−0.26 ±0.13 better than 7%	+0.11 ±0.06 better than 82%
Shot selection	+0.27 ±0.23 better than 78%	+0.26 ±0.12 better than 76%
Execution	−0.80 ±0.54 better than 33%	−0.40 ±0.49 better than 48%
Points left on the table	2.94 ±0.21 lower than 23%	2.23 ±0.08 lower than 89%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jack Sock serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jack wins	v Francisco	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	70%	72%	69.8%±6.2	51% ▲
Body	15%	71%	62%	69.9%±9.7	2% ▼
T	46%	74%	70%	68.7%±6.6	47%

Optimal v Francisco Cerundolo: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jack wins	v Francisco	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	71%	68%	66.2%±6.6	45%
Body	19%	60%	61%	58.1%±10.6	6% ▼
T	36%	73%	67%	68.2%±7.2	49% ▲

Optimal v Francisco Cerundolo: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Francisco Cerundolo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Francisco wins	v Jack	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	65%	72%	64.4%±6.2	44%
Body	16%	61%	64%	62.0%±9.8	3% ▼
T	40%	69%	76%	70.2%±6.6	53% ▲

Optimal v Jack Sock: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Francisco wins	v Jack	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	63%	73%	63.4%±6.4	39% ▼
Body	16%	66%	69%	71.5%±9.4	16%
T	32%	67%	76%	71.3%±6.9	45% ▲

Optimal v Jack Sock: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jack Sock returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	±0.0	+1.8	+6.0±2.4
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−0.5	+3.0	+8.0±4.1
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−0.6	+4.2	+5.3±4.1
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−0.5	+0.8	−3.8±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.3	+0.7	+1.4	−2.3±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (290 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+0.3	+0.7	+7.4±2.2
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	−1.4	+1.5	+8.9±2.9
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+2.4	+1.7	+8.4±4.5
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.3	−4.2±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	+1.7	−0.8	+1.4±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (299 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
FH through the middle	60%	−3.5	+0.9	+1.3	−1.3±2.7
FH down the line	20%	−1.8	−1.5	−1.0	−4.2±4.1
FH crosscourt	13%	−0.2	+1.6	+6.4	+7.7±3.8
FH slice through the middle	7%	−12.7	−0.2	±0.0	−12.9±1.0

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francisco	Value
BH through the middle	41%	−2.9	+0.2	+0.2	−2.5±2.3
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	−1.4	+0.2	−0.2±2.9
FH through the middle	12%	−2.9	−1.6	+1.3	−3.1±2.2
FH inside-out	11%	+1.0	+1.3	−1.0	+1.3±3.4
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+1.8	−2.4	−0.8±4.7

Lean FH inside-out: +2.4±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (198 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Francisco Cerundolo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jack	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.8	−0.3	+4.8±2.5
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+0.1	+2.1	+7.7±4.1
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.4	−2.5	−1.2±4.4
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	+0.2	−5.2±2.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−1.2	−0.5	−5.9±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.8±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (715 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jack	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−0.8	−0.1	+5.5±2.3
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	−1.2	+1.1	+8.8±3.2
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+3.1	−0.2	+7.1±4.4
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−2.6	−0.7	−7.5±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−1.6	+0.9	−0.2±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (857 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jack	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.8	−0.4	−2.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	+2.4	−0.1	+2.1±4.0
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	−0.7	−2.5	−5.0±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jack	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−1.2	−0.2	−0.3±2.9
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−1.0	−2.5	−6.4±2.2
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−3.7	+1.5	−2.4±5.0
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	+1.0	−0.4	−2.4±2.4
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	−1.1	−2.5	−2.7±3.7
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	−0.4	−0.1	+0.1±3.8

Lean FH inside-in: +3.1±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (564 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Jack Sock

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+7.1±4.1	+1.7	+5.4
BH to their forehand · return	+2.4±4.4	+2.0	+0.3
BH to the middle · return	+2.1±1.8	+0.5	+1.6
FH to the middle · return +1	+1.5±2.6	+0.7	+0.8
BH to their backhand · return	+1.4±2.4	−0.5	+1.8
FH to their backhand · return	+1.3±3.4	−1.0	+2.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−8.3±3.7	−5.9	−2.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.8±2.4	−2.1	−0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−1.2±1.9	−0.8	−0.5
FH to their backhand · return +1	−1.2±3.5	−0.8	−0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.1±2.1	+0.2	−1.3

Francisco Cerundolo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.3±3.1	+3.0	+2.3
FH to their forehand · return	+3.4±4.0	+0.9	+2.5
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.7±3.6	+0.3	+2.3
BH to their forehand · return	+2.2±4.2	+1.4	+0.8
FH to the middle · return	+1.5±2.2	+1.2	+0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.3±2.4	+0.4	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	−5.6±3.7	−0.8	−4.8
BH to the middle · rally	−3.8±1.7	−1.3	−2.5
FH to the middle · rally	−3.7±2.1	−1.5	−2.2
FH to their backhand · return	−3.4±3.5	−0.2	−3.1
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.9±2.5	−1.9	−0.9

Against Francisco Cerundolo-like opponents

Jack Sock v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.6%	33.5%
Players most similar to Francisco Cerundolo	2	60.2%	35.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Carlos Alcaraz, Tommy Paul, Guy Den Ouden, Roberto Bautista Agut, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Luca Nardi, Kei Nishikori, Radu Albot, Pablo Andujar. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.