Game plan

Joao Fonseca v Dominic Thiem

Every number combines what Joao Fonseca does well with what Dominic Thiem allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Joao Fonseca wins, best of 3 58%90%: 35%–78% · best of 5: 60%

Serve points won 66.2% / 64.6% Joao / Dominic · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 52%serve 65.6% / 65.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Joao Fonseca's record against Dominic Thiem's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +5.8 on serve, +5.3 on return vs expectation (349 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Joao	Dominic
Direction choice	+0.02 ±0.07 better than 62%	+0.12 ±0.03 better than 83%
Shot selection	−0.24 ±0.14 better than 28%	−0.28 ±0.08 better than 25%
Execution	+0.83 ±0.60 better than 93%	+0.04 ±0.20 better than 71%
Points left on the table	2.55 ±0.09 lower than 55%	2.48 ±0.05 lower than 63%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Joao Fonseca −0.68, Dominic Thiem −0.45. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Joao Fonseca serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Joao wins	v Dominic	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	76%	73%	75.9%±3.1	56% ▲
Body	9%	65%	63%	64.3%±6.7	0% ▼
T	48%	76%	73%	73.7%±3.2	44% ▼

Optimal v Dominic Thiem: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Joao wins	v Dominic	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	69%	72%	67.4%±3.4	50% ▼
Body	10%	61%	65%	63.6%±6.8	0% ▼
T	37%	70%	72%	70.1%±3.9	50% ▲

Optimal v Dominic Thiem: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Dominic Thiem serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Dominic wins	v Joao	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	73%	69%	69.7%±3.4	60% ▲
Body	5%	61%	60%	57.7%±8.0	0% ▼
T	48%	74%	73%	72.4%±3.3	40% ▼

Optimal v Joao Fonseca: +0.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Dominic wins	v Joao	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	71%	72%	69.9%±3.4	65% ▲
Body	7%	64%	62%	63.2%±7.4	0% ▼
T	40%	71%	74%	73.9%±3.6	35% ▼

Optimal v Joao Fonseca: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Joao Fonseca returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	+1.9	−1.2	+5.0±1.7
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+3.7	−1.6	+7.6±3.2
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−1.3	−1.6	−7.1±2.0
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+6.9	−1.3	+7.2±3.3
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+2.6	+1.2	−0.4±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (792 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+2.6	−1.1	+7.8±1.5
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+3.2	+0.8	+12.7±2.2
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+6.3	−4.4	+6.1±3.6
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−1.2	−1.9	−7.3±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	+1.2	−1.4	+0.3±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.8±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (891 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	−0.7	−0.9	−5.1±2.2
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.7	−3.1	−4.1±3.6
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+1.9	−0.8	−0.7±3.9
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	−0.1	+0.7	−12.1±1.9
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+0.3	−0.1	−9.2±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +3.5±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (233 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−0.6	±0.0	−3.5±1.5
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	−1.2	±0.0	−0.2±2.1
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+0.7	−0.4	+0.1±4.0
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	−1.2	−0.9	−4.9±1.9
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	+0.5	−3.1	−2.0±3.6

Lean BH down the line: +2.1±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (627 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Dominic Thiem returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−1.4	+2.3	+5.1±1.6
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	−1.0	+3.3	+4.0±3.1
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−1.0	+3.2	+7.7±3.2
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.0	+0.5	−4.7±2.1
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−3.2	+2.9	−4.6±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.4±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2907 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.4	−1.0	+2.3	+7.7±1.4
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−2.3	+0.2	−6.3±2.0
BH crosscourt	18%	+8.8	−1.5	+3.3	+10.5±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	−2.3	+0.7	−1.1±2.5
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−4.1	+4.0	+4.2±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (3946 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	−0.5	−2.1	−6.1±2.0
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	+0.8	−1.3	−0.8±3.7
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−0.8	+0.1	−2.5±4.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.5	−0.4	−13.5±2.0
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.3	+1.2	−8.6±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (802 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	−1.0	−0.3	−4.1±1.6
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.0	+1.2	+0.6	+2.8±2.1
FH through the middle	13%	−2.9	+0.9	−2.1	−4.1±1.7
FH inside-out	9%	+1.0	+0.2	+0.1	+1.2±3.1
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−5.1	−0.5	−5.8±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2564 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Joao Fonseca

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+3.1±5.0	+4.1	−1.0
FH to their backhand · return	+3.1±2.6	+4.1	−1.0
BH to their backhand · return	+3.0±1.6	+2.2	+0.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.5±1.8	+1.3	+1.1
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.7±2.0	+0.7	+1.0
BH to their forehand · return	+0.8±2.8	+3.3	−2.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	−7.1±1.7	−3.9	−3.2
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.8±2.9	−0.6	−5.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.9±1.7	−2.0	−2.9
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−4.5±5.1	−2.6	−1.9
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−4.5±5.1	−2.7	−1.8

Dominic Thiem

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+3.7±5.3	+2.3	+1.5
BH to their backhand · return	+2.6±1.6	−0.2	+2.8
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+2.6±5.5	+3.2	−0.6
BH to their forehand · return +1	+2.4±3.9	−0.2	+2.6
FH slice to their forehand · rally	+2.2±3.7	+2.9	−0.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.1±2.4	+1.1	+1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to the middle · rally	−4.7±2.4	−1.1	−3.6
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−4.6±5.0	−2.7	−1.9
BH slice to the middle · return +1	−4.5±1.9	+0.4	−5.0
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−4.1±2.8	+0.3	−4.4
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.0±3.5	−0.3	−3.7

Against Dominic Thiem-like opponents

Joao Fonseca v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.5%	36.6%
Players most similar to Dominic Thiem	2	73.2%	40.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz, Lorenzo Musetti, Alexei Popyrin, Laslo Djere, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Philipp Kohlschreiber. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.