Game plan

Juan Martin Del Potro v Andy Murray

Every number combines what Juan Martin Del Potro does well with what Andy Murray allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Juan Martin Del Potro wins, best of 3 48%90%: 33%–64% · best of 5: 48%

Serve points won 61.2% / 61.5% Juan / Andy · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 62%serve 62.7% / 60.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Juan Martin Del Potro's record against Andy Murray's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.5 on serve, −2.3 on return vs expectation (3561 points); head-to-head: −4.6 on serve, +0.3 on return vs expectation (513 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Juan	Andy
Direction choice	+0.16 ±0.04 better than 90%	+0.14 ±0.03 better than 87%
Shot selection	−0.40 ±0.07 better than 17%	−0.45 ±0.05 better than 13%
Execution	+1.15 ±0.18 better than 97%	+0.94 ±0.16 better than 95%
Points left on the table	2.10 ±0.05 lower than 98%	2.23 ±0.05 lower than 90%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Juan Martin Del Potro serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Andy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	73%	70%	70.3%±2.3	33% ▼
Body	12%	65%	59%	60.9%±4.3	0% ▼
T	53%	76%	76%	76.6%±2.0	67% ▲

Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.8±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Andy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	78%	71%	76.8%±2.1	60% ▲
Body	10%	64%	57%	58.0%±4.8	0% ▼
T	43%	75%	68%	70.9%±2.3	40% ▼

Optimal v Andy Murray: +1.1±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andy Murray serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andy wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	71%	72%	69.8%±2.2	41% ▼
Body	8%	67%	61%	64.4%±4.5	0% ▼
T	46%	80%	76%	80.7%±1.8	59% ▲

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andy wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	77%	72%	75.9%±2.1	60% ▲
Body	8%	61%	63%	61.3%±5.1	0% ▼
T	45%	70%	72%	69.5%±2.5	40% ▼

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Juan Martin Del Potro returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+1.2	+1.2	+6.6±1.1
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	+2.6	+1.3	+9.3±2.0
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+2.5	+0.2	+4.4±2.4
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	−1.1	+1.4	−3.9±1.8
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−2.4	+1.1	−5.6±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (2410 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.4	+1.9	−0.1	+8.2±1.2
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+3.2	+0.9	+12.9±1.8
BH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+2.3	−0.4	−2.3±1.2
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	+1.1	+0.5	+2.2±1.9
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+6.0	+0.1	+10.3±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.2±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2945 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	+0.3	+0.7	−2.4±1.8
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	−2.2	+1.5	−0.9±2.9
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+1.4	+2.6	+2.2±3.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+1.4	−0.4	−11.6±2.3
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+2.6	−1.4	−8.3±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +3.7±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (605 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.0	+0.9	+1.8	+3.8±1.3
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+0.3	+1.1	−1.4±1.1
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	−0.8	+1.3	+0.4±3.7
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.4	+0.7	−1.8±1.8
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+0.4	+2.6	+3.9±2.9
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+3.8	+1.5	+5.9±3.4

Lean FH inside-in: +4.7±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1911 returns charted)

Andy Murray returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	+1.4	+1.4	+7.0±1.1
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	+6.2	+1.2	+9.1±2.2
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.5	+1.9	−1.9	+5.5±2.4
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+2.7	+0.6	−0.9±1.4
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+3.1	+2.4	+1.2±2.7

Lean FH down the line: +3.7±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (5314 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+4.6	−2.0	+11.3±1.6
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	+2.2	−0.2	+8.4±1.1
BH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+2.7	+1.2	−0.3±1.1
BH slice crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+2.4	−1.0	+1.9±1.7
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	+0.9	−1.8	−9.2±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (4642 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	+1.6	−0.5	−2.4±1.6
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+2.5	+1.0	+1.8±3.1
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	+1.9	−2.4	−0.7±3.4
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−1.3	−0.4	−1.6±1.6
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	+2.7	+0.7	+5.9±2.5

Lean BH inside-in: +6.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1297 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH crosscourt	57%	+1.0	+1.7	+0.7	+3.4±1.3
BH through the middle	29%	−2.9	+0.1	−0.4	−3.1±1.2
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+2.4	+1.2	+3.4±3.7
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.0	−1.9	−0.1	−6.0±2.2
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	−1.4	+0.2	−12.5±2.2

Lean BH down the line: +2.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.