Game plan

Kevin King v Roger Federer

Every number combines what Kevin King does well with what Roger Federer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Kevin King wins, best of 3 4%90%: 1%–15% · best of 5: 1%

Serve points won 56.5% / 70.8% Kevin / Roger · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 4%serve 56.5% / 70.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Kevin King's record against Roger Federer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Kevin	Roger
Direction choice	−0.05 ±0.05 better than 44%	+0.04 ±0.02 better than 68%
Shot selection	+0.49 ±0.15 better than 93%	+0.18 ±0.03 better than 72%
Execution	−2.29 ±1.18 better than 1%	+0.08 ±0.09 better than 72%
Points left on the table	3.19 ±0.20 lower than 12%	2.74 ±0.04 lower than 35%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Kevin King serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Kevin wins	v Roger	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	81%	69%	78.4%±6.5	56% ▲
Body	12%	60%	63%	59.4%±10.6	0% ▼
T	45%	72%	70%	66.8%±7.0	44% ▼

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Kevin wins	v Roger	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	75%	68%	70.8%±6.5	66% ▲
Body	11%	65%	61%	63.1%±11.3	0% ▼
T	37%	74%	67%	69.4%±7.8	34% ▼

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Roger Federer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roger wins	v Kevin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	76%	76%	79.4%±5.5	59% ▲
Body	8%	68%	62%	67.5%±10.4	0% ▼
T	46%	81%	67%	74.7%±6.2	41% ▼

Optimal v Kevin King: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roger wins	v Kevin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	78%	76%	81.1%±5.8	67% ▲
Body	6%	64%	64%	64.9%±12.3	0% ▼
T	38%	76%	76%	78.9%±5.6	33% ▼

Optimal v Kevin King: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Kevin King returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
FH through the middle	31%	+4.3	+0.7	−0.9	+4.0±2.2
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+0.3	−0.8	+1.2±3.2
FH slice through the middle	20%	−4.2	−2.1	−0.4	−6.7±1.7
FH slice down the line	14%	−4.3	±0.0	−1.0	−5.2±2.6
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	−0.1	−2.0	+3.4±2.7

Lean FH through the middle: +4.5±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (132 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.4	−4.3	−1.4	+0.7±2.0
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−2.2	−0.8	−7.2±1.8
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	−0.3	−0.8	+3.1±3.2
BH crosscourt	12%	+8.8	−0.5	−3.0	+5.3±2.5
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	−1.6	±0.0	−10.0±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (191 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
FH down the line	37%	−1.8	−4.4	−1.5	−7.7±3.2
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	−1.3	−1.3	−6.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	−0.9	−1.4	−2.5±2.6

Lean FH through the middle: −0.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (46 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	−0.4	−0.7	−3.9±1.9
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	+0.2	−1.0	+0.2±2.3
BH down the line	22%	−0.2	+1.8	−0.9	+0.7±3.2

Lean BH down the line: +2.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (77 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Roger Federer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.3	−5.1	−0.5±2.2
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−0.4	−2.5	−1.2±3.0
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−0.6	−1.9	+2.9±3.2
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	+2.8	−1.0	−2.4±1.8
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+1.9	±0.0	−2.3±1.9
BH inside-in	0%	+7.7	−1.6	+1.0	+7.0±3.8

Lean BH inside-in: +7.3±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
BH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	+2.2	−2.9	−4.9±1.7
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	−0.8	−2.0	+3.6±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	23%	+0.5	+3.3	−1.7	+2.1±1.7
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−2.0	+1.0	+7.8±2.6
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+1.0	+0.3	+5.5±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.6±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.1	−3.1±2.2
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+1.2	+2.2	+1.7±3.1
FH crosscourt	20%	−0.2	−1.5	+0.9	−0.8±3.5
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.9	+1.5	±0.0	−5.4±1.6
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.3	−4.0	−3.6±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +3.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Kevin	Value
BH slice crosscourt	25%	−4.0	+1.4	±0.0	−2.6±0.5
BH through the middle	22%	−2.9	−1.4	−4.0	−8.3±1.9
BH slice through the middle	16%	−11.3	+1.0	±0.0	−10.3±0.6
BH crosscourt	14%	+1.0	−2.3	−2.1	−3.4±2.3
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−0.3	−1.9	−2.5±3.3
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+0.6	+0.9	+2.0±3.6

Lean FH inside-in: +7.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Kevin King

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.6±2.2	+2.0	−1.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	−0.5±3.0	+2.3	−2.8
FH to the middle · rally	−1.1±1.9	±0.0	−1.2
BH to their backhand · return	−1.3±2.5	±0.0	−1.3
FH to the middle · return	−1.7±2.1	−0.8	−1.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.9±2.2	−1.2	−0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−7.5±2.7	−5.7	−1.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.7±2.8	−2.0	−2.7
BH to the middle · return	−4.1±1.7	−2.7	−1.4
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.8±3.2	−1.1	−2.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.3±3.0	+1.2	−3.6

Roger Federer

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.2±2.9	+2.7	+0.5
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.0±2.9	−0.5	+2.5
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.6±2.2	−0.6	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.6±2.1	+1.2	−0.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.1±2.6	−0.3	+0.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.5±2.5	+2.8	−3.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−3.7±1.9	−0.7	−3.1
FH to the middle · return	−3.4±2.0	+0.5	−4.0
FH to their backhand · return	−1.4±2.9	−0.5	−0.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.5±2.5	+2.8	−3.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.1±2.6	−0.3	+0.4

Against Roger Federer-like opponents

Kevin King v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.2%	36.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov, Stan Wawrinka, Alexei Popyrin, Dominic Thiem, Tim Van Rijthoven, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Tommy Haas, Ivan Ljubicic, James Blake. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.