RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 34 charted matches · 2002–2011

James Blake

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.4% ±2.8 raw 60.9% · tour 63.4% · 3,366 points
Return points won 40.0% ±2.9 raw 35.9% · tour 36.6% · 3,295 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.08 ±0.07 better than 78% of ATP · raw +0.08
Shot selection +0.03 ±0.12 better than 56% of ATP · raw +0.02
Execution −0.86 ±0.36 better than 30% of ATP · raw −1.03
Tactical adaptability +0.14 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 34 matches
Adaptation speed +0.06 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.49 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 62% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 15,460 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points James Blake goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 899 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 46.3%±4.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 19% 46.4%±6.0 43.7%
BH down the line 11% 51.5%±7.7 46.4%
FH inside-out 9% 54.2%±8.0 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 56.2%±8.0 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 30.5%±9.1 35.1%
FH inside-in 5% 54.0%±10.5 54.7%
BH slice down the line 2% 30.8%±12.5 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 520 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 52% 48.2%±4.9 46.6%
FH down the line 22% 40.6%±7.0 44.7%
FH through the middle 17% 39.7%±7.7 41.5%
FH slice crosscourt 4% 28.7%±11.9 30.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 455 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 30% 52.9%±6.5 52.7%
FH down the line 26% 47.4%±6.9 51.5%
FH through the middle 12% 47.9%±9.4 47.0%
BH crosscourt 11% 42.0%±9.6 49.1%
BH through the middle 7% 41.1%±11.2 46.8%
FH down the line + approach 6% 57.4%±11.6 70.5%
BH down the line 3% 47.6%±13.9 48.3%
FH crosscourt + approach 3% 76.4%±12.0 69.9%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 452 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 48.6%±6.1 46.9%
BH through the middle 20% 45.5%±7.8 43.0%
BH down the line 13% 39.5%±9.1 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 42.1%±9.4 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 8% 28.5%±9.7 32.6%
FH inside-out 5% 55.6%±12.6 51.7%
FH inside-in 3% 59.2%±13.7 53.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +6 How much less varied James Blake's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 318 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 38% 68% / 73%
Body 13% 5% ▼ 64% / 63%
T 48% 58% ▲ 75% / 75%

1,654 normal · 66 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 42% ▼ 71% / 73%
Body 8% 6% 58% / 63%
T 39% 51% ▲ 70% / 72%

1,326 normal · 252 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 60.4%±3.1 n=664 38%
Body13% 63.0%±5.1 n=216 0% ▼
T49% 61.2%±2.7 n=840 62% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.74).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 61.4%±2.8 n=799 64% ▲
Body8% 56.2%±6.5 n=127 0% ▼
T41% 59.0%±3.1 n=652 36% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.32).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.26 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: ±0.0±2.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,250 repeats, 1,980 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 98 41% +3.7±7.1
1stAd courtT 355 28% +0.4±3.8
1stAd courtWide 530 31% +4.0±3.2
1stDeuce courtBody 145 42% +5.6±6.1
1stDeuce courtT 537 24% −1.5±2.9
1stDeuce courtWide 407 24% −2.9±3.4
2ndAd courtBody 118 51% +1.8±6.8
2ndAd courtT 111 48% −1.2±6.9
2ndAd courtWide 336 47% −1.8±4.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 221 50% +1.5±5.2
2ndDeuce courtT 274 52% +2.2±4.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 114 42% −6.1±6.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than James Blake's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 65% · −1.2±7.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 60% · −6.2±8.2 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 58% · −7.6±8.6 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-out used 3.1% · won 59% · −7.4±7.5 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 56% · −10.4±8.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.2% · won 51% · +14.5±7.0 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.7% · won 47% · +10.3±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.3% · won 44% · +7.1±8.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.2% · won 42% · +5.0±7.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.3% · won 41% · +4.3±7.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 52% · +7.0±7.3 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 51% · +6.4±8.1 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 50% · +4.9±7.4 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 2.6% · won 51% · +5.5±8.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH inside-out → FH inside-out used 1.8% · won 51% · +6.4±9.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often James Blake wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 60% · +11.5±11.8 vs own baseline · +18.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 58% · +10.1±12.4 vs own baseline · +13.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.2% · won 59% · +10.5±12.7 vs own baseline · +19.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (5/6)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 54% · +6.1±9.6 vs own baseline · +4.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by David Nalbandian (4/8), Roger Federer (9/14)
  5. Body serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 56% · +7.9±11.5 vs own baseline · +7.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (5/6)
  6. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 55% · +7.0±11.7 vs own baseline · +13.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to their backhand · return+3.9214
BH slice to the middle · return+3.4264
FH to their forehand · return+2.2363
BH to their forehand · rally+1.9274
BH slice to their backhand · rally+1.8201

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · return−1.9364
BH slice to their backhand · return−1.8275
BH to their forehand · return +1−1.7172
T 1st serve · ad court−1.5562
Body 2nd serve · deuce court−1.2221

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Miomir Kecmanovic, Andy Murray, Joao Fonseca, Bernard Tomic, Albert Ramos

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands34%
Chipped returns22%
T serves · deuce49%
Point-ending shots26.6%
Points at net14%
Forehand share55%
T serves · ad41%
Unforced errors / shot10.3%
Backhand slice22%
Wide serves · ad51%
Serve & volley7%
FH down the line30%
BH down the line19%
Avg rally length3.6
Deep returns22%
Drop shots / shot0.7%
Wide serves · deuce39%
1st serve in57%
Through the middle20%

Plays most like

  1. Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022 plan v
  2. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  3. Stefanos Tsitsipas 2016–2026 plan v
  4. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v
  5. Lucas Pouille 2015–2024 plan v
  6. Roger Federer 1998–2021 plan v
  7. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005 plan v
  8. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026
  2. Aleksandar Vukic 2019–2025
  3. Tallon Griekspoor 2018–2026

Charted matches