Game plan
Lorenzo Musetti v Denis Shapovalov
Every number combines what Lorenzo Musetti does well with what Denis Shapovalov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Lorenzo Musetti's record against Denis Shapovalov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.9 on serve, +2.0 on return vs expectation (531 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Lorenzo | Denis |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.02 ±0.04 better than 50% | −0.12 ±0.06 better than 26% |
| Shot selection | −0.57 ±0.10 better than 9% | +0.40 ±0.12 better than 87% |
| Execution | +0.48 ±0.22 better than 83% | −0.72 ±0.35 better than 36% |
| Points left on the table | 2.74 ±0.06 lower than 35% | 3.39 ±0.11 lower than 9% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Structural compatibility
Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Lorenzo Musetti +0.41, Denis Shapovalov −1.33. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Lorenzo Musetti serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Lorenzo wins | v Denis | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 41% | 70% | 71% | 67.9%±3.0 | 38% ▼ |
| Body | 9% | 64% | 63% | 63.7%±6.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 49% | 72% | 77% | 74.3%±2.9 | 62% ▲ |
Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Lorenzo wins | v Denis | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 55% | 69% | 78% | 74.2%±3.0 | 68% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 61% | 66% | 64.1%±6.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 69% | 70% | 66.5%±3.3 | 32% ▼ |
Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Denis Shapovalov serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Denis wins | v Lorenzo | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 77% | 72% | 76.1%±3.0 | 36% ▼ |
| Body | 7% | 65% | 61% | 62.5%±7.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 56% | 72% | 71% | 67.9%±3.0 | 64% ▲ |
Optimal v Lorenzo Musetti: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Denis wins | v Lorenzo | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 75% | 68% | 69.8%±2.9 | 51% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 69% | 63% | 68.3%±6.7 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 36% | 79% | 71% | 78.6%±3.0 | 49% ▲ |
Optimal v Lorenzo Musetti: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Lorenzo Musetti returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 40% | +4.3 | −0.5 | −0.8 | +3.0±1.6 |
| FH down the line | 24% | +1.7 | −1.4 | −4.8 | −4.5±3.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 15% | −4.2 | −0.4 | +0.6 | −4.0±1.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 10% | +5.5 | +2.3 | +1.0 | +8.9±3.3 |
| FH slice down the line | 8% | −4.3 | +0.2 | +1.1 | −3.1±2.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +8.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2257 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 27% | −4.2 | +1.4 | +1.0 | −1.9±1.5 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | +1.1 | +2.8 | +10.3±1.4 |
| BH crosscourt | 20% | +8.8 | +1.4 | +3.1 | +13.3±2.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 11% | +0.5 | −0.6 | +3.6 | +3.5±2.5 |
| BH down the line | 9% | +4.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +3.9±3.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +8.5±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2587 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 47% | −3.5 | +1.1 | +0.2 | −2.2±1.9 |
| FH down the line | 25% | −1.8 | −1.0 | −4.3 | −7.1±4.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | −0.2 | −1.2 | +1.0 | −0.4±3.7 |
| FH slice through the middle | 3% | −12.7 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −13.3±2.2 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −9.4 | +1.2 | +0.2 | −8.1±2.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (600 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Denis | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 33% | −2.9 | +1.0 | +1.2 | −0.8±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +1.0 | +1.4 | −0.9 | +1.5±2.0 |
| BH down the line | 14% | −0.2 | −1.8 | −1.6 | −3.6±3.7 |
| FH through the middle | 10% | −2.9 | +1.2 | +0.2 | −1.4±1.8 |
| FH inside-out | 6% | +1.0 | −1.1 | −4.3 | −4.5±3.4 |
| FH inside-in | 3% | +0.6 | +1.7 | +1.0 | +3.3±4.0 |
Lean FH inside-in: +4.8±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1827 returns charted)
Denis Shapovalov returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Lorenzo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | +4.3 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +4.6±1.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | +5.5 | −0.5 | −2.1 | +2.9±2.9 |
| FH down the line | 15% | +1.7 | −4.6 | +0.4 | −2.5±3.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | +1.2 | +0.4 | −2.7±2.1 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 5% | −4.3 | +3.5 | +1.1 | +0.2±2.8 |
Lean FH through the middle: +2.7±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1294 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Lorenzo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 33% | +6.4 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +7.1±1.3 |
| BH slice through the middle | 28% | −4.2 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −5.7±1.7 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +4.2 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +3.3±2.8 |
| BH slice down the line | 10% | −8.4 | +0.9 | −1.0 | −8.4±2.9 |
| BH crosscourt | 10% | +8.8 | −2.5 | −0.7 | +5.6±2.7 |
Lean BH through the middle: +6.4±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2081 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Lorenzo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 58% | −3.5 | −3.8 | −0.8 | −8.0±1.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 27% | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6±3.5 |
| FH down the line | 12% | −1.8 | −3.0 | +1.1 | −3.7±4.1 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.8±1.1 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | −12.5 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −14.2±2.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (406 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Lorenzo | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 53% | −2.9 | +1.4 | +0.2 | −1.3±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 20% | +1.0 | +0.5 | −0.8 | +0.7±2.6 |
| BH down the line | 14% | −0.2 | +1.5 | −0.7 | +0.6±3.4 |
| FH through the middle | 6% | −2.9 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −3.5±2.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −11.3 | −1.5 | −0.9 | −13.7±2.3 |
| FH inside-out | 2% | +1.0 | −0.7 | +1.1 | +1.3±3.0 |
Lean FH inside-out: +2.4±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1157 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Lorenzo Musetti
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | +2.9±1.0 | +1.0 | +1.8 |
| FH slice to their backhand · return | +2.8±2.7 | +0.1 | +2.8 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +2.6±2.5 | +0.5 | +2.2 |
| BH slice to the middle · return | +2.3±1.4 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| BH slice to their forehand · return | +2.2±3.1 | −0.2 | +2.4 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +2.1±1.4 | +1.7 | +0.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | −10.7±5.3 | −3.3 | −7.4 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | −5.1±5.2 | −4.1 | −1.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −4.6±2.9 | +0.5 | −5.2 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | −3.1±2.3 | −0.5 | −2.6 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | −3.0±2.1 | −0.3 | −2.7 |
Denis Shapovalov
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +5.9±4.9 | +5.1 | +0.8 |
| BH volley to the middle · rally | +5.3±5.4 | +5.3 | ±0.0 |
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +3.8±4.8 | +5.4 | −1.6 |
| FH slice to their backhand · rally | +2.4±3.5 | +2.3 | +0.1 |
| FH slice to their backhand · return | +2.3±3.1 | +2.2 | +0.1 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.0±0.9 | +0.6 | +1.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −7.6±1.8 | −4.2 | −3.4 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return +1 | −6.7±2.3 | −3.9 | −2.8 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | −6.6±5.1 | −4.0 | −2.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | −5.3±2.4 | −4.5 | −0.7 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −4.8±2.8 | −5.4 | +0.5 |
Against Denis Shapovalov-like opponents
| Lorenzo Musetti v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 63.0% | 37.7% |
| Players most similar to Denis Shapovalov | 4 | 67.6% | 41.5% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Rafael Jodar, Jiri Lehecka, Alexei Popyrin, Zizou Bergs, Gabriel Diallo, Pierre Hugues Herbert, Tim Van Rijthoven, Vasek Pospisil, Fernando Verdasco, Philipp Kohlschreiber. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.