Game plan

Lorenzo Musetti v Ivan Lendl

Every number combines what Lorenzo Musetti does well with what Ivan Lendl allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lorenzo Musetti wins, best of 3 66%90%: 45%–83% · best of 5: 70%

Serve points won 65.5% / 62.3% Lorenzo / Ivan · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 66%serve 65.5% / 62.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lorenzo Musetti's record against Ivan Lendl's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Lorenzo	Ivan
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.04 better than 50%	+0.07 ±0.06 better than 75%
Shot selection	−0.57 ±0.10 better than 9%	−0.70 ±0.11 better than 5%
Execution	+0.48 ±0.22 better than 83%	+0.73 ±0.21 better than 89%
Points left on the table	2.74 ±0.06 lower than 35%	2.96 ±0.11 lower than 22%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lorenzo Musetti serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lorenzo wins	v Ivan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	70%	68%	64.5%±3.0	28% ▼
Body	9%	64%	62%	62.1%±5.0	22% ▲
T	49%	72%	68%	65.2%±2.8	50%

Optimal v Ivan Lendl: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lorenzo wins	v Ivan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	69%	69%	65.5%±2.6	68% ▲
Body	8%	61%	61%	59.3%±6.0	0% ▼
T	37%	69%	70%	66.8%±3.5	32% ▼

Optimal v Ivan Lendl: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ivan Lendl serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ivan wins	v Lorenzo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	72%	71.5%±2.5	42% ▼
Body	7%	65%	61%	62.6%±6.0	0% ▼
T	45%	77%	71%	73.7%±2.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Lorenzo Musetti: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ivan wins	v Lorenzo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	73%	68%	68.1%±2.7	48% ▼
Body	6%	63%	63%	63.0%±6.9	0% ▼
T	39%	73%	71%	72.5%±2.9	52% ▲

Optimal v Lorenzo Musetti: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lorenzo Musetti returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	−0.5	−1.2	+2.5±1.3
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	−1.4	+1.4	+1.6±2.4
FH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.4	+2.6	−2.0±1.7
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+2.3	±0.0	+7.9±3.2
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+0.2	+1.5	−2.6±2.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2257 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
BH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	+1.4	+2.4	−0.5±1.2
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	+1.1	−2.2	+5.4±1.5
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	+1.4	+0.5	+10.6±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	11%	+0.5	−0.6	+3.6	+3.5±1.9
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	±0.0	−1.8	+2.5±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.1±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (2587 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.1	+0.9	−1.5±1.8
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	−1.0	+3.2	+0.4±3.5
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	−1.2	+1.3	−0.1±3.5
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	−0.7	+2.1	−11.3±2.2
FH slice down the line	2%	−9.4	+1.2	+0.7	−7.5±2.5

Lean FH down the line: +1.5±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (600 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ivan	Value
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+1.0	+1.2	−0.7±1.3
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.0	+1.4	+3.1	+5.5±1.8
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−1.8	+3.8	+1.8±3.5
FH through the middle	10%	−2.9	+1.2	+0.9	−0.7±1.7
FH inside-out	6%	+1.0	−1.1	+3.2	+3.1±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1827 returns charted)

Ivan Lendl returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−1.4	+0.8	+3.7±1.3
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	+2.3	+0.4	+8.2±2.7
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	−1.4	−2.1	−1.8±2.7
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	+1.4	−0.8	−1.0±1.9
FH slice through the middle	1%	−4.2	+1.0	+0.4	−2.8±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1908 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
BH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	−0.1	−0.8	−5.1±1.6
BH slice crosscourt	21%	+0.5	+3.5	−1.0	+3.1±2.1
BH through the middle	16%	+6.4	−3.4	+0.5	+3.5±1.3
BH slice down the line	13%	−8.4	+4.5	−0.5	−4.4±2.9
BH crosscourt	11%	+8.8	+3.7	−0.9	+11.6±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +11.2±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (3467 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	−0.2	+0.6	+1.1	+1.4±3.2
FH through the middle	36%	−3.5	+1.9	−0.8	−2.3±1.9
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	+5.8	−0.5	+3.6±3.6
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.4	+0.2	+0.7±1.2
BH slice through the middle	1%	−6.9	+0.3	−0.9	−7.5±1.7

Lean FH down the line: +3.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (649 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lorenzo	Value
BH through the middle	21%	−2.9	−0.6	+0.2	−3.2±1.4
BH slice crosscourt	19%	−4.0	+3.5	−1.1	−1.6±2.1
BH crosscourt	18%	+1.0	+0.6	−0.7	+0.9±1.8
BH slice through the middle	12%	−11.3	+3.4	−0.9	−8.8±2.1
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−1.9	−0.8	−2.9±4.1
FH inside-in	6%	+0.6	+1.3	+1.1	+3.0±3.6

Lean FH inside-in: +5.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2117 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Lorenzo Musetti

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	+7.1±3.0	+3.2	+3.9
FH to their forehand · return	+7.0±5.5	+0.3	+6.7
BH lob to their backhand · return +1	+6.2±6.2	+2.1	+4.1
BH to their backhand · return	+6.0±3.9	−1.9	+7.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.9±4.8	+4.6	+1.2
BH slice to their forehand · return	+5.8±4.8	+0.6	+5.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−8.3±7.4	−4.7	−3.6
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−5.4±7.0	−3.5	−2.0
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−4.8±7.2	−6.0	+1.2
FH volley to the middle · rally	−4.7±8.0	−2.0	−2.7
BH slice to their forehand · serve +1	−4.0±4.6	−1.6	−2.4

Ivan Lendl

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	+8.9±4.6	+5.6	+3.3
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+6.8±7.2	+4.0	+2.8
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	+4.7±3.8	+5.5	−0.9
BH slice to their forehand · return +1	+4.6±4.5	+7.3	−2.7
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+4.2±7.5	+2.5	+1.7
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+4.2±4.1	+4.3	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
Smash to their backhand · rally	−10.5±5.5	−4.9	−5.5
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1	−10.2±6.3	+0.8	−11.0
Smash to their forehand · rally	−7.4±5.4	−1.6	−5.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.3±4.4	−0.1	−5.1
FH to the middle · rally	−3.7±2.9	−3.5	−0.3

Against Ivan Lendl-like opponents

Lorenzo Musetti v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.0%	37.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Richard Gasquet, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Tommy Haas, Ivan Ljubicic, Sebastien Grosjean, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Alex Corretja, Sergi Bruguera, Brad Gilbert. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.