Game plan

Lucas Pouille v Ethan Quinn

Every number combines what Lucas Pouille does well with what Ethan Quinn allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Lucas Pouille wins, best of 3 35%90%: 15%–60% · best of 5: 32%

Serve points won 63.2% / 66.3% Lucas / Ethan · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 35%serve 62.8% / 65.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Lucas Pouille's record against Ethan Quinn's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.0 on serve, −2.9 on return vs expectation (486 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Lucas	Ethan
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.08 better than 52%	−0.06 ±0.07 better than 41%
Shot selection	+0.05 ±0.16 better than 60%	±0.00 ±0.19 better than 53%
Execution	−0.99 ±0.48 better than 26%	−2.26 ±0.66 better than 1%
Points left on the table	2.56 ±0.14 lower than 54%	2.56 ±0.15 lower than 55%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Lucas Pouille serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lucas wins	v Ethan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	71%	72%	70.0%±7.2	57% ▲
Body	10%	65%	62%	64.2%±12.4	0% ▼
T	46%	74%	70%	69.8%±7.6	43% ▼

Optimal v Ethan Quinn: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lucas wins	v Ethan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	77%	78.4%±6.9	40% ▼
Body	7%	61%	54%	51.9%±14.6	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	74%	75.8%±6.9	60% ▲

Optimal v Ethan Quinn: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ethan Quinn serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ethan wins	v Lucas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	70%	77%	73.9%±6.7	41%
Body	15%	62%	68%	66.2%±11.5	2% ▼
T	44%	78%	78%	80.9%±5.9	57% ▲

Optimal v Lucas Pouille: +1.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ethan wins	v Lucas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	75%	76%	78.0%±6.8	54% ▲
Body	9%	67%	63%	66.6%±13.4	0% ▼
T	50%	71%	78%	78.0%±6.5	46% ▼

Optimal v Lucas Pouille: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Lucas Pouille returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ethan	Value
FH through the middle	35%	+4.3	+1.4	−2.2	+3.4±2.8
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−1.1	−6.4	−5.9±4.4
FH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	+1.2	−0.6	−3.6±2.3
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	−0.4	−2.1	+3.0±4.4
FH slice down the line	7%	−4.3	+1.1	−0.8	−3.9±2.9

Lean FH through the middle: +4.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (462 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ethan	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	−3.4	−1.7	+1.3±2.5
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−1.3	−0.1	+7.4±3.5
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	+0.6	−0.4	+4.4±4.2
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.4	−3.1	−7.7±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	+2.2	−4.0	−1.3±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (619 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ethan	Value
FH through the middle	56%	−3.5	−0.8	−0.8	−5.1±2.9
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	−2.6	−0.4	−4.7±4.2
FH crosscourt	21%	−0.2	−0.2	−0.3	−0.7±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.4±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (95 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ethan	Value
BH through the middle	46%	−2.9	−1.1	+0.5	−3.6±2.3
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.0	−2.5	−2.4	−3.9±3.2
BH down the line	18%	−0.2	+2.0	−0.1	+1.7±4.8
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.6	−0.8	−4.2±2.2
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	+0.9	−0.4	+1.5±3.1

Lean BH down the line: +4.1±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (387 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Ethan Quinn returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
FH slice through the middle	46%	−4.2	−0.3	−0.1	−4.6±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	28%	−4.3	−1.0	+1.7	−3.7±2.8
FH through the middle	10%	+4.3	−1.3	−0.3	+2.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	8%	+5.5	−0.5	−0.9	+4.1±4.0
FH slice down the line	6%	−4.3	−2.8	−1.9	−9.0±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.1±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (189 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
BH through the middle	32%	+6.4	−2.5	+0.2	+4.2±2.6
BH crosscourt	21%	+8.8	−1.9	−1.1	+5.8±3.4
BH down the line	21%	+4.2	−3.2	+0.8	+1.8±4.6
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−2.6	+0.5	−6.2±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	−2.7	+0.6	−1.6±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
FH through the middle	52%	−3.5	+0.3	−1.5	−4.7±2.6
FH crosscourt	28%	−0.2	+1.9	−1.7	±0.0±4.1
FH slice crosscourt	11%	−12.5	−0.2	±0.0	−12.7±1.4
FH slice through the middle	9%	−12.7	−0.3	−1.0	−14.0±1.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (54 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lucas	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	±0.0	+0.9	−2.0±2.3
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	+0.5	+1.5	+3.0±3.0
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	−5.3	+3.7	−1.8±4.5
FH through the middle	12%	−2.9	+0.5	−1.5	−3.9±2.0
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	+0.8	−0.2	+1.6±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (127 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Lucas Pouille

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.1±4.0	+1.4	+1.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.0±4.9	+1.5	+1.5
FH to the middle · rally	−0.3±3.1	−0.5	+0.2
FH to the middle · serve +1	−1.5±3.8	−0.8	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.9±3.9	+0.8	−2.7
FH to the middle · return	−2.1±3.3	+0.1	−2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−5.5±2.8	−3.6	−1.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.4±3.3	−2.7	−2.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.4±4.2	+0.5	−6.0
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.8±4.7	−3.1	−1.7
BH to the middle · rally	−3.9±2.8	−3.2	−0.8

Ethan Quinn

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±3.7	+2.0	+0.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.8±4.5	+0.7	+1.1
BH to their backhand · return +1	+1.2±4.8	+1.6	−0.5
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.3±3.3	+1.0	−0.8
BH to their backhand · serve +1	±0.0±4.8	−3.3	+3.2
BH to their forehand · return	−0.1±6.2	−4.1	+3.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−7.2±3.5	−5.3	−1.9
FH to the middle · rally	−7.1±3.3	−5.7	−1.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.5±3.8	−2.8	−1.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	−4.3±3.8	−0.9	−3.4
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.5±3.5	+0.6	−3.1

Against Ethan Quinn-like opponents

Lucas Pouille v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.2%	32.4%
Players most similar to Ethan Quinn	2	67.6%	31.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Arthur Rinderknech, Zhizhen Zhang, Aleksandar Kovacevic, Alexei Popyrin, Zizou Bergs, Benjamin Bonzi, Fabio Fognini, Tim Van Rijthoven, Kevin Anderson. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.