Game plan

Martin Jaite v Arthur Cazaux

Every number combines what Martin Jaite does well with what Arthur Cazaux allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Martin Jaite wins, best of 3 55%90%: 23%–84% · best of 5: 57%

Serve points won 65.5% / 64.4% Martin / Arthur · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 55%serve 65.5% / 64.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Martin Jaite's record against Arthur Cazaux's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Martin Jaite serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Martin wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	58%	73%	57.9%±10.8	43%
Body	19%	58%	66%	60.5%±16.1	6% ▼
T	38%	75%	79%	78.9%±9.8	51% ▲

Optimal v Arthur Cazaux: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +12.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Martin wins	v Arthur	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	64%	75%	66.7%±11.1	51%
Body	24%	54%	65%	55.8%±16.9	10% ▼
T	25%	70%	80%	77.7%±10.7	39% ▲

Optimal v Arthur Cazaux: +1.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +10.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Arthur Cazaux serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Martin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	72%	69%	68.2%±11.4	38% ▼
Body	5%	60%	62%	59.1%±17.3	0% ▼
T	49%	78%	75%	77.7%±9.4	62% ▲

Optimal v Martin Jaite: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arthur wins	v Martin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	72%	78%	78.1%±9.2	67% ▲
Body	3%	69%	61%	66.8%±17.4	3%
T	43%	71%	71%	70.3%±12.4	30% ▼

Optimal v Martin Jaite: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Martin Jaite returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
BH slice through the middle	43%	−4.2	−0.1	+0.1	−4.2±2.3
BH through the middle	28%	+6.4	−1.3	−2.0	+3.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	+0.5	+1.6	+10.9±3.0
BH slice crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+0.2	−2.8	−2.2±2.3

Lean BH slice through the middle: −4.6±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (47 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arthur	Value
BH crosscourt	42%	+1.0	+0.1	+0.3	+1.5±3.1
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	+0.1	−0.2	−3.0±2.3
FH inside-out	10%	+1.0	−0.7	+1.0	+1.3±2.9
FH through the middle	10%	−2.9	+0.2	−0.1	−2.9±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (48 returns charted)

Arthur Cazaux returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martin	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	±0.0	+2.1	+6.3±3.0
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	−3.8	−0.8	−3.0±3.7
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.9	±0.0	−5.1±1.6
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−3.4	+2.1	+4.3±3.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.5	±0.0	−3.7±1.8

Lean FH through the middle: +5.0±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (243 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martin	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+1.0	−1.0	+6.4±2.7
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−0.7	+0.2	+8.2±3.4
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	−2.9	±0.0	+1.3±3.2
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−1.6	+0.4	−5.4±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−2.1	+0.5	−1.0±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (204 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martin	Value
FH through the middle	53%	−3.5	+1.3	+0.3	−1.9±2.8
FH down the line	37%	−1.8	+0.1	+2.2	+0.5±4.2
FH crosscourt	10%	−0.2	−2.8	−0.1	−3.1±3.3

Lean FH down the line: +1.6±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (60 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martin	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+1.2	+0.4	−1.3±2.0
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	−1.3	+0.2	−0.1±3.1
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−1.5	±0.0	−1.7±2.9
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.6	+0.3	−1.9±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Martin Jaite

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±3.0	+1.9	+0.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.2±3.5	−1.3	+2.5
FH to the middle · rally	+0.9±2.8	−0.4	+1.3
BH to the middle · rally	+0.2±2.6	+1.3	−1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.5±3.7	−0.6	−1.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.5±3.7	−0.6	−1.0
BH to the middle · rally	+0.2±2.6	+1.3	−1.1
FH to the middle · rally	+0.9±2.8	−0.4	+1.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.2±3.5	−1.3	+2.5
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±3.0	+1.9	+0.3

Arthur Cazaux

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+6.0±2.8	+3.8	+2.1
FH to the middle · return	+4.3±3.3	+2.4	+1.9
FH to the middle · rally	+2.0±2.6	+0.6	+1.4
BH to the middle · rally	+1.5±2.5	+0.1	+1.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.2±4.0	+2.1	−0.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.0±3.7	+0.3	+0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.0±3.7	+0.3	+0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.2±4.0	+2.1	−0.9
BH to the middle · rally	+1.5±2.5	+0.1	+1.4
FH to the middle · rally	+2.0±2.6	+0.6	+1.4
FH to the middle · return	+4.3±3.3	+2.4	+1.9

Against Arthur Cazaux-like opponents

Martin Jaite v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	53.3%	38.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Gael Monfils, Jakub Mensik, Jack Draper, Marcos Giron, Taylor Fritz, Nuno Borges, Rinky Hijikata, Miomir Kecmanovic, Gregoire Barrere, Filip Krajinovic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.