Game plan

Matteo Berrettini v Roger Federer

Every number combines what Matteo Berrettini does well with what Roger Federer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Matteo Berrettini wins, best of 3 31%90%: 16%–51% · best of 5: 27%

Serve points won 65.7% / 69.8% Matteo / Roger · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 33%serve 65.7% / 69.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Matteo Berrettini's record against Roger Federer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +3.4 on serve, +1.2 on return vs expectation (723 points); head-to-head: −7.8 on serve, −8.8 on return vs expectation (249 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Matteo	Roger
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.06 better than 51%	+0.04 ±0.02 better than 68%
Shot selection	−0.61 ±0.09 better than 8%	+0.18 ±0.03 better than 72%
Execution	+0.03 ±0.36 better than 70%	+0.08 ±0.09 better than 72%
Points left on the table	2.71 ±0.09 lower than 39%	2.74 ±0.04 lower than 35%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Matteo Berrettini serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Matteo wins	v Roger	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	79%	69%	75.6%±2.2	59% ▲
Body	6%	68%	63%	67.3%±5.6	0% ▼
T	48%	80%	70%	76.5%±2.3	41% ▼

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Matteo wins	v Roger	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	79%	68%	74.9%±2.3	63% ▲
Body	7%	68%	61%	65.7%±5.6	0% ▼
T	43%	76%	67%	70.7%±2.6	37% ▼

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Roger Federer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roger wins	v Matteo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	76%	76%	79.1%±2.0	59% ▲
Body	8%	68%	65%	70.3%±4.6	0% ▼
T	46%	81%	75%	81.6%±1.8	41% ▼

Optimal v Matteo Berrettini: +0.4±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roger wins	v Matteo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	78%	74%	79.6%±1.9	69% ▲
Body	6%	64%	65%	66.1%±5.1	0% ▼
T	38%	76%	71%	74.3%±2.5	31% ▼

Optimal v Matteo Berrettini: +0.7±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Matteo Berrettini returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	−0.5	−0.9	+2.8±1.2
FH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+1.2	−0.4	−3.4±1.3
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	−4.0	−2.0	−4.2±2.7
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	−1.3	−0.8	+3.5±2.8
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+2.1	−1.0	−3.2±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1460 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
BH through the middle	31%	+6.4	+0.7	−1.4	+5.7±1.2
BH slice through the middle	29%	−4.2	−0.5	−0.8	−5.5±1.1
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	+0.1	−0.8	+8.1±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	11%	+0.5	−1.5	±0.0	−1.0±1.9
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+1.7	−3.0	+3.0±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.1±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1842 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	−1.8	−1.3	−6.5±1.7
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	−1.3	−1.4	−4.5±3.3
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	−3.0	−1.5	−4.8±3.3
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+1.1	−0.1	−11.7±2.1
FH slice down the line	2%	−9.4	±0.0	−1.3	−10.7±2.6

Lean FH down the line: +1.8±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (389 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roger	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	+0.2	−0.7	−3.3±1.1
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	−1.2	−0.9	−1.1±1.7
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	±0.0	−1.0	−1.3±3.4
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.2	−1.3	−3.9±1.7
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−3.7	−1.5	−4.7±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.6±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1173 returns charted)

Roger Federer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.3	−0.2	+4.3±1.2
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−0.4	−1.2	+0.1±2.5
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−0.6	+1.0	+5.9±2.5
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	+2.8	+0.7	−0.7±1.4
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+1.9	+1.0	−1.4±2.8
BH through the middle	0%	+6.6	+0.6	+1.0	+8.2±2.3

Lean BH through the middle: +5.0±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
BH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	+2.2	−1.3	−3.3±1.3
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	−0.8	+1.0	+6.7±1.2
BH slice crosscourt	23%	+0.5	+3.3	−2.8	+1.0±1.8
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−2.0	+1.5	+8.3±1.8
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+1.0	−4.0	+1.2±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.4±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.8	−3.8±1.4
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+1.2	±0.0	−0.5±2.9
FH crosscourt	20%	−0.2	−1.5	−0.5	−2.2±3.2
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.9	+1.5	−0.5	−5.9±2.2
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.3	−0.1	+0.4±1.7

Lean BH through the middle: +3.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
BH slice crosscourt	25%	−4.0	+1.4	−0.7	−3.3±1.9
BH through the middle	22%	−2.9	−1.4	−0.1	−4.3±1.1
BH slice through the middle	16%	−11.3	+1.0	−0.5	−10.8±1.8
BH crosscourt	14%	+1.0	−2.3	−1.6	−2.9±1.5
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−0.3	+0.1	−0.5±3.5
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+0.6	−0.5	+0.6±3.3

Lean FH inside-in: +5.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.