Game plan

Mattia Bellucci v Nishesh Basavareddy

Every number combines what Mattia Bellucci does well with what Nishesh Basavareddy allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Mattia Bellucci wins, best of 3 35%90%: 11%–67% · best of 5: 31%

Serve points won 64.9% / 68.2% Mattia / Nishesh · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 34%serve 64.8% / 68.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Mattia Bellucci's record against Nishesh Basavareddy's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.5 on serve, +1.0 on return vs expectation (224 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Mattia	Nishesh
Direction choice	−0.19 ±0.10 better than 15%	+0.26 ±0.08 better than 97%
Shot selection	−0.43 ±0.21 better than 15%	+0.26 ±0.11 better than 77%
Execution	−0.76 ±0.76 better than 34%	+0.46 ±0.64 better than 83%
Points left on the table	3.20 ±0.21 lower than 12%	2.06 ±0.10 lower than 98%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Mattia Bellucci serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Mattia wins	v Nishesh	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	76%	72%	75.4%±8.2	48% ▲
Body	11%	64%	61%	62.0%±13.0	0% ▼
T	55%	72%	69%	65.3%±8.7	52% ▼

Optimal v Nishesh Basavareddy: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Mattia wins	v Nishesh	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	69%	74%	70.5%±7.9	74% ▲
Body	10%	68%	61%	66.6%±13.2	0% ▼
T	29%	74%	72%	73.4%±9.1	26% ▼

Optimal v Nishesh Basavareddy: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Nishesh Basavareddy serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nishesh wins	v Mattia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	76%	74%	76.9%±7.2	66% ▲
Body	10%	69%	64%	69.3%±12.8	0% ▼
T	37%	78%	81%	83.0%±7.2	34% ▼

Optimal v Mattia Bellucci: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nishesh wins	v Mattia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	76%	75%	77.5%±8.0	55% ▲
Body	8%	60%	60%	56.5%±16.0	0% ▼
T	42%	72%	76%	76.3%±7.9	45% ▲

Optimal v Mattia Bellucci: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Mattia Bellucci returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nishesh	Value
FH slice through the middle	41%	−4.2	−1.7	+0.4	−5.5±2.3
FH through the middle	23%	+4.3	−2.1	−0.9	+1.3±2.8
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	+1.1	−2.5	+4.1±4.1
FH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.3	+1.6	+0.2	−2.5±2.3
FH down the line	9%	+1.7	−1.4	+2.8	+3.0±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (107 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nishesh	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	−3.6	+1.1	+3.9±2.7
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−1.0	+1.5	−3.7±2.5
BH crosscourt	17%	+8.8	−1.0	−1.0	+6.8±3.5
BH down the line	17%	+4.2	−0.8	+1.4	+4.9±4.5
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+1.2	−2.0	−9.2±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (161 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nishesh	Value
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	+0.5	+1.0	−2.0±2.7
FH slice through the middle	25%	−12.7	−1.2	±0.0	−13.9±1.5
FH crosscourt	22%	−0.2	±0.0	−3.2	−3.4±4.0
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−1.6	+2.2	−1.2±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−12.5	+0.9	±0.0	−11.6±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +4.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nishesh	Value
BH through the middle	60%	−2.9	+0.3	−0.2	−2.8±2.4
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.0	+0.2	−3.2	−1.9±3.2
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−1.3	−0.5	−2.1±4.6
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.7	+1.0	−1.2±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (110 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Nishesh Basavareddy returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	−0.9	−0.2	+3.1±3.0
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+1.5	+3.0	+10.0±4.3
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−3.5	−0.3	−2.1±4.1
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+0.4	−2.9	−6.7±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	−2.9	−0.5	−7.7±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.8±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (262 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	−0.7	+0.7	+8.9±3.6
BH through the middle	27%	+6.4	+2.0	+0.8	+9.2±2.8
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	+1.6	−0.5	−3.1±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	−2.5	+1.3	−0.6±2.6
BH slice down the line	8%	−8.4	−0.4	−0.2	−8.9±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +5.3±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (253 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
FH crosscourt	52%	−0.2	+1.1	+1.0	+1.9±4.4
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.4	−3.3±2.9
FH down the line	7%	−1.8	+0.8	−0.2	−1.2±3.6
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	−0.3	±0.0	−12.9±1.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.9±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mattia	Value
BH crosscourt	58%	+1.0	+2.9	±0.0	+3.9±3.3
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	−1.0	+0.2	−3.6±2.5
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−3.2	−1.1	−4.5±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (113 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Mattia Bellucci

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · rally	+2.8±1.9	+1.9	+0.9
FH to the middle · rally	+1.7±2.3	+0.7	+1.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.5±3.5	+0.9	+0.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.5±3.6	−0.9	+2.4
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.2±2.8	−0.4	+1.6
BH to the middle · return +1	+0.9±2.6	+0.2	+0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.4±4.1	−4.1	−0.3
BH to the middle · return	−2.7±2.2	−2.8	+0.2
BH to their forehand · return	−2.2±4.6	+1.3	−3.5
FH to the middle · return	−1.6±2.6	−1.6	±0.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.0±3.2	−1.1	+0.1

Nishesh Basavareddy

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.3±3.9	+3.1	+2.3
BH to the middle · return	+1.6±2.3	+0.6	+1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.6±2.6	+1.0	+0.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	+1.6±4.0	+2.5	−0.9
FH to their backhand · return	+1.6±4.2	−1.2	+2.7
BH to the middle · rally	+1.5±2.2	+1.1	+0.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.4±3.6	−2.3	−2.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.8±3.8	+1.7	−2.4
FH to the middle · return	−0.7±2.7	+0.2	−0.9
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±2.8	+1.9	−2.3
BH to their forehand · return	±0.0±4.5	−0.5	+0.5

Against Nishesh Basavareddy-like opponents

Mattia Bellucci v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	63.2%	34.4%
Players most similar to Nishesh Basavareddy	1	61.8%	34.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe, Novak Djokovic, Luca Nardi, Richard Gasquet, Karue Sell, Gregoire Barrere, Andy Murray, David Nalbandian, Andre Agassi. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.