Game plan

Nikolay Davydenko v Juan Martin Del Potro

Every number combines what Nikolay Davydenko does well with what Juan Martin Del Potro allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Nikolay Davydenko wins, best of 3 56%90%: 46%–67% · best of 5: 58%

Serve points won 63.7% / 62.4% Nikolay / Juan · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 50%serve 62.7% / 62.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Nikolay Davydenko's record against Juan Martin Del Potro's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +8.9 on serve, +1.9 on return vs expectation (361 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Nikolay	Juan
Direction choice	−0.01 ±0.06 better than 56%	+0.16 ±0.04 better than 90%
Shot selection	+0.02 ±0.07 better than 54%	−0.40 ±0.07 better than 17%
Execution	+0.14 ±0.29 better than 74%	+1.15 ±0.18 better than 97%
Points left on the table	2.24 ±0.09 lower than 89%	2.10 ±0.05 lower than 98%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Nikolay Davydenko serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Nikolay wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	70%	72%	69.2%±3.3	45% ▲
Body	12%	60%	61%	57.4%±5.7	0% ▼
T	51%	71%	76%	72.2%±2.9	55% ▲

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Nikolay wins	v Juan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	67%	72%	65.8%±3.2	50%
Body	10%	66%	63%	65.5%±6.2	23% ▲
T	40%	68%	72%	68.2%±3.7	27% ▼

Optimal v Juan Martin Del Potro: +0.1±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Juan Martin Del Potro serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Nikolay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	73%	72%	72.4%±3.0	48% ▲
Body	12%	65%	62%	64.3%±6.2	0% ▼
T	53%	76%	73%	73.8%±3.0	52% ▼

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Juan wins	v Nikolay	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	78%	69%	75.1%±3.0	60% ▲
Body	10%	64%	61%	61.3%±7.6	0% ▼
T	43%	75%	69%	71.5%±3.3	40% ▼

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Nikolay Davydenko returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	±0.0	+1.4	+5.6±1.5
FH down the line	23%	+1.7	−1.1	+1.2	+1.8±2.8
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−2.3	−1.9	+1.3±3.0
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	−1.2	+0.6	−4.8±1.9
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−0.1	+2.4	−2.0±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +3.1±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1320 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+0.5	−0.2	+6.6±1.4
BH crosscourt	21%	+8.8	−0.6	−2.0	+6.2±2.3
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.7	+3.2	+11.2±3.4
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.4	+1.2	−4.4±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−2.2	−1.0	−2.7±2.5

Lean BH down the line: +6.5±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1258 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	+1.9	−0.5	−2.1±2.0
FH crosscourt	26%	−0.2	−0.2	−2.4	−2.8±3.9
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	−2.6	+1.0	−3.3±3.8
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−0.1	−0.4	−0.4±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +0.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Juan	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.4	−2.4±1.3
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.0	+0.5	+0.7	+2.2±1.8
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	−0.7	+1.2	+0.3±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1069 returns charted)

Juan Martin Del Potro returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+1.2	+0.4	+5.8±1.5
FH crosscourt	30%	+5.5	+2.6	−0.7	+7.4±2.7
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	+2.5	−1.0	+3.2±3.0
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	−1.1	+2.2	−3.1±2.3
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−2.4	−0.3	−7.0±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2410 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
BH through the middle	30%	+6.4	+1.9	+2.6	+11.0±1.4
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+3.2	+0.3	+12.3±2.0
BH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+2.3	+2.6	+0.7±1.5
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	+1.1	+4.8	+6.5±2.1
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+6.0	+1.2	+11.4±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (2945 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	+0.3	+0.2	−2.9±2.2
FH crosscourt	34%	−0.2	−2.2	−1.9	−4.4±3.5
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+1.4	−0.1	−0.5±4.2
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	+1.4	+0.4	−10.9±2.0
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+2.6	±0.0	−6.8±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +2.8±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (605 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Nikolay	Value
BH crosscourt	47%	+1.0	+0.9	±0.0	+1.9±2.0
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+0.3	+1.6	−1.0±1.5
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	−0.8	+1.5	+0.5±4.4
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.4	+0.2	−2.3±2.1
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+0.4	−0.1	+1.3±3.4
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+3.8	−1.9	+2.4±3.9

Lean FH inside-in: +2.1±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1911 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.