Game plan

Novak Djokovic v Andrei Chesnokov

Every number combines what Novak Djokovic does well with what Andrei Chesnokov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Novak Djokovic wins, best of 3 89%90%: 76%–95% · best of 5: 93%

Serve points won 63.9% / 54.5% Novak / Andrei · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 92%serve 64.6% / 53.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Novak Djokovic's record against Andrei Chesnokov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −2.5 on serve, −3.4 on return vs expectation (1121 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Novak	Andrei
Direction choice	+0.04 ±0.02 better than 70%	−0.17 ±0.25 better than 18%
Shot selection	+0.04 ±0.03 better than 58%	−0.21 ±0.42 better than 30%
Execution	+1.17 ±0.10 better than 97%	+1.04 ±0.51 better than 96%
Points left on the table	2.24 ±0.03 lower than 89%	2.67 ±0.42 lower than 41%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Novak Djokovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v Andrei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	74%	68%	68.9%±5.3	59% ▲
Body	9%	67%	54%	58.3%±8.6	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	64%	65.7%±5.3	41% ▼

Optimal v Andrei Chesnokov: +0.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Novak wins	v Andrei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	74%	69%	70.0%±4.7	64% ▲
Body	9%	63%	58%	57.9%±11.7	0% ▼
T	40%	73%	67%	68.1%±5.8	36% ▼

Optimal v Andrei Chesnokov: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andrei Chesnokov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andrei wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	61%	69%	56.4%±5.6	54% ▲
Body	20%	64%	58%	58.1%±7.6	7% ▼
T	38%	64%	71%	59.7%±7.0	39%

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andrei wins	v Novak	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	66%	69%	61.9%±5.8	37% ▼
Body	20%	67%	57%	61.3%±7.5	19%
T	31%	67%	69%	63.3%±6.3	44% ▲

Optimal v Novak Djokovic: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Novak Djokovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+0.5	+0.3	+5.1±1.8
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+1.9	+1.6	+5.2±3.2
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.3	−0.7	+5.1±3.3
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+1.5	+0.5	−2.1±1.3
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+1.4	±0.0	−2.9±1.8
BH inside-in	0%	+7.7	+2.5	−1.3	+8.9±3.7

Lean BH inside-in: +4.7±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (11120 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	−0.4	+6.5±1.9
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+1.4	−1.3	+8.9±2.6
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.2	+3.1	−1.3±1.8
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.2	+0.7	+7.1±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.0	+1.6	+1.1±2.4
FH inside-out	0%	+8.6	+1.3	+1.6	+11.5±3.5

Lean FH inside-out: +6.5±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (9500 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
FH through the middle	54%	−3.5	+1.3	+1.5	−0.6±2.1
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+1.5	+0.4	+0.1±3.6
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	+1.5	+1.5	+2.8±3.6
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	−1.2	+0.7	−0.4±2.1
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	−0.4	±0.0	+0.5±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2581 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	+1.4	−0.7	+1.8±2.4
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.7	−1.5±1.9
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+2.0	±0.0	+1.7±3.9
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	−0.9	+1.5	−2.3±2.3
FH inside-out	1%	+1.0	+0.1	+0.4	+1.4±3.6
FH inside-in	0%	+0.6	+1.5	+1.5	+3.5±4.3

Lean FH inside-in: +3.4±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (6220 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Andrei Chesnokov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−0.6	−0.4	+3.2±2.0
FH down the line	32%	+1.7	−2.5	−0.2	−1.1±3.2
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	±0.0	+0.6	+6.1±3.3
BH inside-out	2%	+6.3	+0.5	+0.3	+7.1±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (269 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	−1.2	+0.5	+5.6±1.8
BH crosscourt	35%	+8.8	+3.3	+0.7	+12.8±2.4
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.6	+0.3	+5.1±3.5
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−0.5	+0.5	−4.2±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	2%	+0.5	−1.2	+1.0	+0.3±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (355 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
FH down the line	48%	−1.8	+0.9	−2.6	−3.5±3.3
FH through the middle	38%	−3.5	+0.7	+0.3	−2.5±1.9
FH crosscourt	15%	−0.2	+0.7	−1.6	−1.1±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +0.3±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (48 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Novak	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.9	+1.3	+0.6	−1.0±1.7
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.0	+3.0	+0.9	+4.8±2.2
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+3.4	±0.0	+3.2±3.9
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.3	+0.3	−2.9±1.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.0±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (337 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Novak Djokovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+10.3±8.0	+6.7	+3.5
FH to the middle · rally	+4.5±1.6	+0.6	+3.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.2±1.6	+1.8	+2.4
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.8±2.8	+0.3	+3.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.8±3.0	+0.5	+3.2
FH to their backhand · return	+3.7±3.1	+0.5	+3.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.2±3.7	+1.0	−4.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	−2.3±2.8	−0.2	−2.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.8±1.7	+1.0	−2.8
BH slice to their backhand · return	−0.3±3.3	−2.7	+2.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	−0.2±3.3	+2.2	−2.4

Andrei Chesnokov

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+8.1±4.1	+6.2	+1.9
FH to their forehand · return +1	+4.7±4.2	+3.6	+1.1
FH to the middle · serve +1	+4.6±2.7	+3.3	+1.3
BH to their backhand · return	+4.1±2.3	+3.7	+0.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.6±3.7	+2.4	+1.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.4±2.7	+2.1	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.2±3.2	−3.1	+0.9
FH to their backhand · return	−2.1±3.4	−1.7	−0.4
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−0.5±2.8	−1.7	+1.2
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±1.6	−1.5	+1.1
BH to their forehand · return +1	−0.4±4.6	−1.7	+1.3

Against Andrei Chesnokov-like opponents

Novak Djokovic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.9%	40.4%
Players most similar to Andrei Chesnokov	7	62.5%	39.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Alex De Minaur, Valentin Vacherot, Jenson Brooksby, Jarkko Nieminen, David Nalbandian, Michael Chang, Sergi Bruguera, Mats Wilander, Miloslav Mecir. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.