RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 11 charted matches · 2003–2014

Jarkko Nieminen

Archetype: Blocks returns short · Works the corners

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.0% ±3.4 raw 55.6% · tour 63.4% · 694 points
Return points won 36.6% ±3.4 raw 31.0% · tour 36.6% · 690 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.26 ±0.13 better than 8% of ATP · raw −0.27
Shot selection −0.02 ±0.27 better than 51% of ATP · raw −0.04
Execution +0.34 ±0.76 better than 80% of ATP · raw −0.10
Tactical adaptability −0.15 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 11 matches
Adaptation speed −0.06 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.24 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 12% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,642 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jarkko Nieminen goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 270 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 42.7%±7.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 26% 34.9%±8.2 43.7%
BH down the line 17% 42.8%±10.0 46.4%
BH slice down the line 4% 36.8%±14.2 37.1%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 33.9%±14.0 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 4% 33.4%±14.2 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 164 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 38% 39.0%±8.9 44.7%
FH crosscourt 35% 46.6%±9.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 27% 39.5%±10.1 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 148 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 31% 34.2%±9.6 48.0%
BH through the middle 29% 26.6%±9.2 43.8%
BH down the line 19% 40.2%±11.6 46.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 138 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 22% 45.1%±11.6 52.7%
FH through the middle 21% 39.6%±11.5 47.0%
BH crosscourt 17% 43.8%±12.4 49.1%
FH down the line 17% 51.9%±12.5 51.5%
BH through the middle 15% 39.9%±12.6 46.8%
BH down the line 9% 39.5%±14.2 48.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +14 How much less varied Jarkko Nieminen's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 89 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 64% ▲ 62% / 73%
Body 19% 16% 58% / 63%
T 42% 20% ▼ 65% / 75%

333 normal · 25 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 61% ▲ 59% / 73%
Body 12% 6% 64% / 63%
T 38% 33% 69% / 72%

265 normal · 64 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 51.9%±6.2 n=148 42%
Body18% 51.9%±8.4 n=66 5% ▼
T40% 57.8%±6.2 n=144 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.39).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 55.4%±5.8 n=170 50% ▼
Body11% 60.4%±9.9 n=36 0% ▼
T37% 58.0%±6.6 n=123 50% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.63).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.45 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.8±5.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (259 repeats, 406 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 33 33% −3.5±9.8
1stAd courtT 79 23% −4.7±6.7
1stAd courtWide 87 22% −4.9±6.3
1stDeuce courtBody 27 39% +1.9±10.6
1stDeuce courtT 85 19% −6.4±6.0
1stDeuce courtWide 124 29% +1.5±6.0
2ndAd courtBody 35 46% −3.5±10.2
2ndAd courtT 56 37% −12.3±8.6
2ndAd courtWide 36 52% +3.9±10.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 40 47% −2.3±9.8
2ndDeuce courtT 25 56% +6.5±11.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 60 40% −7.6±8.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jarkko Nieminen's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.9% · won 47% · −10.9±11.5 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 6.9% · won 46% · −11.3±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 13.1% · won 33% · +1.5±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 10.1% · won 31% · −0.5±10.9 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 7.2% · won 41% · +3.8±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 42% · +4.4±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 4.9% · won 40% · +2.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 39% · +1.9±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.7% · won 39% · +1.2±9.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jarkko Nieminen wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 43% · +1.8±12.1 vs own baseline · −3.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (6/13)
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.1% · won 41% · −0.4±12.1 vs own baseline · −3.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/8), Lleyton Hewitt (3/8)
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 39% · −1.7±11.5 vs own baseline · −9.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (1/6), Lleyton Hewitt (2/7)
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 39% · −2.0±10.6 vs own baseline · −10.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alexandr Dolgopolov (3/10), Lleyton Hewitt (5/13)
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 37% · −3.8±12.5 vs own baseline · −17.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/9)
  6. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.9% · won 37% · −3.8±12.5 vs own baseline · −16.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+1.9139
FH to their backhand · rally+1.5216
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.8170
FH to the middle · rally+0.8122
BH to their forehand · rally−0.1190

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−5.0342
FH to their forehand · serve +1−5.0132
FH to their forehand · rally−3.9215
BH to their forehand · rally−1.1135
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.0156

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line39%
1st serve in67%
BH down the line29%
Avg rally length4.3
Through the middle26%
Wide serves · ad52%
Chipped returns15%
Deep returns26%
Points at net11%
T serves · ad37%
Wide serves · deuce41%
Serve & volley2%
Unforced errors / shot9.2%
Backhand slice15%
Point-ending shots20.2%
T serves · deuce40%
Forehand share49%
Drop shots / shot0.5%
Run-around forehands8%

Plays most like

  1. Denis Istomin 2006–2021 plan v
  2. Alex Michelsen 2023–2026 plan v
  3. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  4. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026 plan v
  5. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014 plan v
  6. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  7. Mikhail Kukushkin 2014–2022 plan v
  8. Viktor Troicki 2009–2021 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Alex Michelsen 2023–2026
  2. Valentin Vacherot 2024–2026
  3. Learner Tien 2022–2026

Charted matches