Game plan

Sebastien Grosjean v Brandon Nakashima

Every number combines what Sebastien Grosjean does well with what Brandon Nakashima allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Sebastien Grosjean wins, best of 3 36%90%: 15%–63% · best of 5: 33%

Serve points won 62.4% / 65.1% Sebastien / Brandon · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 36%serve 62.4% / 65.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Sebastien Grosjean's record against Brandon Nakashima's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Sebastien	Brandon
Direction choice	−0.07 ±0.11 better than 38%	−0.01 ±0.07 better than 54%
Shot selection	+0.09 ±0.19 better than 64%	−0.11 ±0.14 better than 38%
Execution	−0.82 ±0.58 better than 31%	+0.79 ±0.43 better than 91%
Points left on the table	2.72 ±0.24 lower than 39%	2.50 ±0.10 lower than 60%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Sebastien Grosjean serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Brandon	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	73%	74%	74.7%±5.6	42% ▼
Body	7%	54%	66%	57.0%±12.6	0% ▼
T	45%	76%	79%	79.3%±5.5	58% ▲

Optimal v Brandon Nakashima: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sebastien wins	v Brandon	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	70%	75%	72.7%±6.3	40% ▼
Body	4%	55%	67%	59.7%±13.4	0% ▼
T	47%	72%	74%	74.7%±5.9	60% ▲

Optimal v Brandon Nakashima: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Brandon Nakashima serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Brandon wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	73%	79%	78.4%±5.0	65% ▲
Body	5%	64%	67%	67.8%±13.1	0% ▼
T	43%	78%	78%	80.1%±5.2	35% ▼

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Brandon wins	v Sebastien	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	72%	74%	73.4%±5.9	50% ▼
Body	9%	69%	65%	70.8%±11.6	0% ▼
T	37%	72%	69%	68.6%±6.7	50% ▲

Optimal v Sebastien Grosjean: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Sebastien Grosjean returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Brandon	Value
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	+1.1	+1.7	+7.0±2.5
FH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+3.4	−0.4	−1.1±2.3
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−0.5	−1.2	±0.0±4.2
FH slice down the line	10%	−4.3	+3.5	+0.5	−0.3±3.1
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−4.5	+3.4	+4.5±3.9

Lean FH through the middle: +5.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (301 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Brandon	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−2.7	−0.3	+3.4±2.3
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	−1.2	+0.4	+8.0±3.2
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.4	−3.6±2.4
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+3.6	−0.3	+7.5±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.5	+2.1	+1.2±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (272 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Brandon	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	+0.2	−1.0	−4.2±2.6
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−3.2	+1.7	−3.3±4.7
FH crosscourt	11%	−0.2	−1.5	+1.5	−0.2±3.7

Lean FH down the line: +0.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (79 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Brandon	Value
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	+2.2	+2.3	+1.7±2.2
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	+0.9	−0.2	+1.8±2.9
FH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.2	−1.0	−4.1±2.2
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.1	+1.4	+2.3±4.7
FH inside-out	10%	+1.0	+2.5	+1.7	+5.2±3.6
FH inside-in	7%	+0.6	+4.4	+1.5	+6.4±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +4.9±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (275 returns charted)

Brandon Nakashima returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	−1.1	−2.0	+1.2±2.5
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	−1.5	−1.2	−1.0±4.2
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+1.0	+1.7	−1.4±2.3
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	+0.6	+1.9	+8.0±4.4
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+0.9	−1.0	−4.4±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.3±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (771 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.2	−1.5	+5.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+1.2	+1.0	+11.0±3.3
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	+0.1	+0.2	−3.9±2.5
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−1.3	+3.4	+6.3±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−3.1	+0.1	−2.5±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (648 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
FH through the middle	62%	−3.5	−1.0	+0.7	−3.7±2.7
FH crosscourt	21%	−0.2	+3.2	+0.3	+3.3±4.4
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	−0.7	+4.0	+1.5±4.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (228 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sebastien	Value
BH through the middle	50%	−2.9	−0.6	±0.0	−3.5±2.3
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	+1.9	+1.5	+4.4±2.8
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	+0.7	−1.9	−1.5±5.0
BH slice through the middle	4%	−11.3	−1.2	−0.2	−12.7±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.0	−0.1	+1.7	−2.4±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (387 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Sebastien Grosjean

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.6±3.3	−0.1	+4.7
FH slice to the middle · return	+3.8±2.3	+4.1	−0.3
BH to their forehand · return	+3.3±4.0	+2.7	+0.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.5±2.6	+1.1	+1.4
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+2.4±2.1	+1.7	+0.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	+2.3±2.4	+0.1	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.2±3.5	−5.3	−0.9
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.2±3.6	−4.4	+1.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	−1.8±3.6	−4.2	+2.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±2.0	−0.8	−0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.0±2.3	−1.7	+0.7

Brandon Nakashima

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.2±2.7	+3.2	+2.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.3±3.6	+1.0	+2.3
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.3±2.8	+1.5	+1.8
FH to their forehand · return	+2.6±4.2	+1.3	+1.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.7±3.1	+4.0	−2.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.6±2.1	+0.4	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.7±3.7	−2.3	−1.4
FH to the middle · return	−2.1±2.0	−0.9	−1.2
BH to the middle · return	−1.6±1.9	±0.0	−1.6
BH to the middle · rally	−1.6±1.8	−0.7	−0.9
FH to their backhand · return	−1.0±3.4	−2.5	+1.5

Against Brandon Nakashima-like opponents

Sebastien Grosjean v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.4%	32.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Karen Khachanov, Marcos Giron, Jaume Munar, Roberto Bautista Agut, Pablo Carreno Busta, Taylor Fritz, Rinky Hijikata, Gregoire Barrere, Tennys Sandgren. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.