Game plan

Stefanos Tsitsipas v David Ferrer

Every number combines what Stefanos Tsitsipas does well with what David Ferrer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Stefanos Tsitsipas wins, best of 3 74%90%: 60%–85% · best of 5: 79%

Serve points won 64.4% / 59.4% Stefanos / David · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 73%serve 64.6% / 59.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Stefanos Tsitsipas's record against David Ferrer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.3 on serve, +0.9 on return vs expectation (1843 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Stefanos	David
Direction choice	+0.10 ±0.03 better than 81%	−0.03 ±0.06 better than 48%
Shot selection	+0.35 ±0.07 better than 83%	+0.44 ±0.08 better than 89%
Execution	+0.20 ±0.17 better than 75%	+0.21 ±0.29 better than 76%
Points left on the table	2.52 ±0.06 lower than 58%	2.21 ±0.08 lower than 92%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Stefanos Tsitsipas serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Stefanos wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	75%	74%	76.1%±2.6	60% ▲
Body	6%	64%	60%	59.9%±6.4	0% ▼
T	47%	79%	73%	77.2%±2.7	40% ▼

Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Stefanos wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	78%	71%	76.6%±2.7	44% ▼
Body	7%	67%	62%	65.6%±6.4	0% ▼
T	43%	74%	74%	76.3%±3.0	56% ▲

Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

David Ferrer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Stefanos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	67%	75%	69.6%±2.9	57% ▲
Body	20%	61%	68%	66.0%±4.6	7% ▼
T	36%	67%	75%	67.8%±3.4	36%

Optimal v Stefanos Tsitsipas: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Stefanos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	67%	74%	68.5%±3.3	51% ▲
Body	17%	57%	64%	58.5%±5.7	4% ▼
T	44%	63%	74%	64.8%±3.3	45%

Optimal v Stefanos Tsitsipas: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Stefanos Tsitsipas returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.3	−0.6	+1.4	+5.1±1.3
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	+1.5	+4.2	+7.4±2.6
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−4.3	−0.6	+0.5±3.0
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	−1.6	+0.8	−5.1±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.3	+0.7	+0.7	−2.9±2.3

Lean FH down the line: +3.5±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (3059 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH through the middle	35%	+6.4	−1.2	+1.1	+6.3±1.3
BH slice through the middle	20%	−4.2	+0.3	+1.5	−2.5±1.5
BH crosscourt	18%	+8.8	−2.3	+1.4	+7.9±2.0
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	−2.2	+1.1	+3.0±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	10%	+0.5	−3.5	+2.6	−0.3±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (4350 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	±0.0	+1.1	−2.4±2.0
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	+0.4	+1.4	+1.6±3.9
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	+2.2	+1.0	+1.5±3.9
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.6	−0.3	−13.6±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (711 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH through the middle	36%	−2.9	+0.7	±0.0	−2.3±1.2
BH crosscourt	25%	+1.0	−1.6	+1.4	+0.9±1.8
FH inside-out	12%	+1.0	+0.2	+1.0	+2.2±2.7
FH through the middle	11%	−2.9	+1.5	+1.1	−0.3±1.7
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−4.7	−0.1	−5.0±3.8

Lean FH inside-out: +3.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (3046 returns charted)

David Ferrer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefanos	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−0.9	−1.2	+2.1±1.4
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−0.8	+1.0	+5.7±2.8
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	−0.6	−2.6	−1.5±2.9
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.6	−0.6	−5.5±1.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.5	−0.2	−4.0±3.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1210 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefanos	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−0.5	−0.1	+5.8±1.3
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	+3.1	−1.1	+10.8±2.0
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.3	−2.5	−7.0±1.9
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+2.6	−0.8	+6.0±3.6
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	−3.6	−2.5	−14.5±3.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1260 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefanos	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	+1.5	−0.2	−2.2±2.0
FH down the line	35%	−1.8	+3.0	−1.7	−0.5±3.5
FH crosscourt	19%	−0.2	−0.2	+0.8	+0.4±3.5
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−1.0	−1.0	−14.7±2.0
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.1	−0.4	−0.2±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.8±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefanos	Value
BH crosscourt	54%	+1.0	+0.4	−1.3	+0.1±1.6
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	−0.1	−0.4	−3.4±1.4
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	+1.9	−0.4	+1.3±4.2
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.4	−0.2	−2.8±1.9
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	+2.4	−1.7	+1.6±2.9
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+3.1	+0.8	+4.5±3.3

Lean FH inside-in: +5.5±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (945 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+11.5±7.1	+7.9	+3.5
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+11.2±7.8	+5.4	+5.8
FH slice to their backhand · rally	+6.7±5.0	+2.9	+3.8
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+6.1±7.3	+5.4	+0.7
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+6.0±7.1	+1.0	+5.0
Smash to their forehand · rally	+5.3±5.9	+2.1	+3.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH slice to the middle · rally	−5.1±3.5	−4.5	−0.6
BH to their forehand · return +1	−4.7±4.7	−3.7	−1.0
BH slice to their backhand · return	−4.7±3.1	−5.7	+1.0
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.4±5.1	−1.2	−3.2
FH to their forehand · return	−2.1±4.0	−0.9	−1.2

David Ferrer

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+5.3±7.5	+1.8	+3.5
Smash to their forehand · rally	+4.5±5.9	+1.4	+3.0
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+4.0±7.7	+5.6	−1.7
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.1±2.6	+2.1	+1.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.0±2.9	+1.4	+1.5
BH to their forehand · return	+2.5±4.0	+5.3	−2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−7.0±4.6	−3.0	−4.0
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−5.1±2.8	−5.2	+0.2
BH slice to the middle · rally	−3.3±2.7	+1.4	−4.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.2±2.5	−2.5	−0.7
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.2±5.2	−3.3	+0.1

Against David Ferrer-like opponents

Stefanos Tsitsipas v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	67.3%	33.8%
Players most similar to David Ferrer	12	66.7%	36.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Tommy Paul, Pablo Carreno Busta, Miomir Kecmanovic, Diego Schwartzman, Ilya Ivashka, Carlos Berlocq, Guillermo Canas, Magnus Norman. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.