Game plan

Tatjana Maria v Arantxa Sanchez Vicario

Every number combines what Tatjana Maria does well with what Arantxa Sanchez Vicario allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tatjana Maria wins, best of 3 67%90%: 28%–92% · best of 5: 71%

Serve points won 59.9% / 56.5% Tatjana / Arantxa · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 67%serve 59.9% / 56.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tatjana Maria's record against Arantxa Sanchez Vicario's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tatjana	Arantxa
Direction choice	+0.17 ±0.11 better than 82%	−0.06 ±0.14 better than 44%
Shot selection	−4.80 ±0.55 better than 0%	−0.58 ±0.24 better than 9%
Execution	+1.80 ±0.44 better than 98%	+0.06 ±0.46 better than 64%
Points left on the table	3.32 ±0.20 lower than 3%	2.76 ±0.20 lower than 27%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tatjana Maria serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tatjana wins	v Arantxa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	70%	68%	71.3%±6.4	54% ▲
Body	14%	60%	57%	59.1%±10.9	0% ▼
T	47%	75%	66%	74.0%±6.7	46% ▼

Optimal v Arantxa Sanchez Vicario: +1.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tatjana wins	v Arantxa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	24%	74%	68%	76.3%±7.4	39% ▲
Body	11%	54%	64%	62.4%±11.2	0% ▼
T	65%	68%	65%	68.7%±7.2	61% ▼

Optimal v Arantxa Sanchez Vicario: +1.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Arantxa Sanchez Vicario serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arantxa wins	v Tatjana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	53%	61%	47.7%±8.2	18% ▼
Body	27%	54%	61%	57.8%±8.5	27%
T	40%	56%	66%	54.4%±7.6	55% ▲

Optimal v Tatjana Maria: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arantxa wins	v Tatjana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	53%	58%	45.5%±6.8	45% ▼
Body	17%	51%	58%	53.2%±9.7	27% ▲
T	22%	61%	56%	52.6%±9.7	28% ▲

Optimal v Tatjana Maria: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tatjana Maria returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
FH slice through the middle	44%	−6.7	+3.5	+1.8	−1.5±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	19%	−6.6	+4.2	+0.3	−2.2±2.6
FH through the middle	14%	+4.2	−3.2	−3.2	−2.3±2.9
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	+0.7	+3.3	+9.4±4.0
FH slice down the line	9%	−10.5	+3.7	+0.9	−5.9±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +10.2±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (254 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
BH slice through the middle	46%	−6.2	+4.6	+3.0	+1.4±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	31%	−4.2	+3.2	+7.0	+6.0±2.6
BH slice down the line	9%	−12.5	+3.9	+3.5	−5.1±3.6
BH through the middle	8%	+6.0	−1.0	−2.0	+3.0±2.8
BH crosscourt	4%	+7.7	+0.9	−0.8	+7.9±3.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.2±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (356 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
FH slice through the middle	33%	−15.2	+3.0	±0.0	−12.2±1.8
FH crosscourt	25%	+0.5	−0.4	+3.5	+3.6±4.0
FH through the middle	16%	−3.2	−0.3	−2.0	−5.5±2.8
FH slice crosscourt	14%	−14.9	+1.4	±0.0	−13.5±1.6
FH slice down the line	12%	−14.1	+1.2	±0.0	−12.9±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +11.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
BH slice through the middle	34%	−11.7	+1.2	+1.4	−9.1±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	30%	−7.5	+0.2	+1.9	−5.3±2.9
BH through the middle	7%	−2.6	−0.5	+0.9	−2.2±2.5
BH slice down the line	7%	−10.6	+4.5	−1.8	−7.8±3.8
BH down the line	6%	−0.5	−1.3	+0.6	−1.2±4.8

Lean BH through the middle: +3.1±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (202 returns charted)

Arantxa Sanchez Vicario returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.2	−3.2	−0.1	+0.9±2.7
FH slice through the middle	22%	−6.7	+3.2	±0.0	−3.5±2.5
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.3	−2.6	+0.4	+3.1±4.4
FH down the line	10%	+1.5	+4.2	−6.0	−0.3±4.6
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+0.8	−2.5	−8.3±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (388 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.0	−2.9	−2.0	+1.2±2.6
BH crosscourt	31%	+7.7	−3.9	−2.5	+1.3±3.5
BH slice through the middle	17%	−6.2	+3.0	+0.3	−2.9±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	12%	−4.2	−0.2	−1.5	−5.9±2.9
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	−1.9	−6.2	−5.9±4.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (478 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.2	+0.2	+0.4	−2.7±2.9
FH down the line	35%	−0.6	−1.3	−0.1	−1.9±5.2
FH crosscourt	17%	+0.5	−1.4	+3.2	+2.4±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.9±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (164 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
BH crosscourt	51%	+1.5	+0.6	±0.0	+2.1±3.6
BH through the middle	31%	−2.6	±0.0	+2.2	−0.5±2.7
BH down the line	14%	−0.5	±0.0	−1.1	−1.7±5.1
FH inside-in	4%	+0.7	−0.7	+3.2	+3.3±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (173 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tatjana Maria

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	+12.3±4.1	+4.2	+8.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+8.4±3.4	+3.9	+4.6
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+7.7±3.9	+2.8	+4.8
BH slice to their forehand · return	+7.5±4.4	+4.4	+3.1
BH slice to their backhand · return	+7.2±4.1	+2.2	+5.0
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+6.8±3.2	+3.4	+3.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−13.8±4.1	−5.4	−8.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.5±4.6	+0.8	−6.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.1±4.7	+1.2	−3.3
FH to the middle · rally	−0.7±3.1	+0.5	−1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±4.6	−0.9	+3.3

Arantxa Sanchez Vicario

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±4.7	+4.6	−5.0
FH to the middle · rally	−0.7±3.4	+2.1	−2.8
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−1.7±3.4	+3.8	−5.5
FH to their forehand · return	−2.5±5.2	−2.7	+0.2
BH to the middle · return	−2.9±3.7	−2.6	−0.2
FH to the middle · return +1	−2.9±3.2	−1.2	−1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−9.7±5.6	−2.7	−7.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−9.1±5.2	−5.5	−3.5
BH to their backhand · rally	−7.8±4.3	−1.3	−6.5
FH to their backhand · return	−7.4±6.0	−1.0	−6.4
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−7.0±5.0	−2.2	−4.8

Against Arantxa Sanchez Vicario-like opponents

Tatjana Maria v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.5%	42.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Maja Chwalinska, Angelique Kerber, Brenda Fruhvirtova, Anna Lena Friedsam, Agnieszka Radwanska, Flavia Pennetta, Martina Hingis, Conchita Martinez, Gabriela Sabatini, Chris Evert. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.