Game plan

Tomas Machac v Hugo Dellien

Every number combines what Tomas Machac does well with what Hugo Dellien allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tomas Machac wins, best of 3 73%90%: 38%–94% · best of 5: 78%

Serve points won 64.6% / 59.8% Tomas / Hugo · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 76%serve 65.0% / 59.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tomas Machac's record against Hugo Dellien's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −2.6 on serve, −2.2 on return vs expectation (430 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tomas	Hugo
Direction choice	+0.12 ±0.07 better than 83%	−0.10 ±0.19 better than 31%
Shot selection	+0.08 ±0.15 better than 63%	+0.10 ±0.41 better than 66%
Execution	+0.15 ±0.51 better than 75%	−0.14 ±0.74 better than 60%
Points left on the table	2.35 ±0.10 lower than 79%	2.83 ±0.33 lower than 29%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tomas Machac serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tomas wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	67%	71%	64.4%±7.9	31% ▼
Body	6%	62%	59%	58.2%±15.4	7%
T	49%	74%	77%	76.0%±6.8	62% ▲

Optimal v Hugo Dellien: +1.0±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tomas wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	70%	73%	69.5%±8.0	41% ▼
Body	8%	64%	65%	65.2%±15.0	0% ▼
T	46%	72%	77%	76.7%±7.2	59% ▲

Optimal v Hugo Dellien: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Hugo Dellien serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Tomas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	58%	74%	59.8%±7.7	34% ▼
Body	12%	62%	66%	64.2%±12.6	12%
T	41%	62%	78%	66.2%±7.7	54% ▲

Optimal v Tomas Machac: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Tomas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	60%	66%	71%	64.0%±7.0	73% ▲
Body	10%	60%	60%	56.6%±14.8	0% ▼
T	30%	64%	68%	59.4%±9.1	27% ▼

Optimal v Tomas Machac: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tomas Machac returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	+2.7	+3.6	+10.6±2.7
FH down the line	27%	+1.7	+1.7	−3.3	+0.1±4.3
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+3.2	+2.0	+10.7±4.4
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.2	−1.1	−6.6±2.0
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	+1.3	±0.0	−2.9±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (465 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.4	+1.1	+0.5	+8.0±2.4
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	+3.1	+2.7	+14.6±3.2
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+2.1	±0.0	−2.1±2.2
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	+2.2	+2.1	+8.5±4.5
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−0.5	−0.4	−0.4±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (508 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
FH through the middle	39%	−3.5	+1.7	+3.7	+1.9±2.9
FH down the line	33%	−1.8	−0.2	−1.0	−3.0±4.5
FH crosscourt	24%	−0.2	+2.3	−0.6	+1.5±4.1
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	−0.5	±0.0	−13.2±1.1

Lean FH through the middle: +2.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (163 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH crosscourt	51%	+1.0	+1.0	+0.6	+2.7±3.0
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+0.5	−1.0	−3.3±2.5
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−1.1	+5.4	+4.0±4.6
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+0.4	+3.7	+1.2±2.1

Lean BH down the line: +3.5±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Hugo Dellien returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tomas	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+0.5	+1.3	+6.0±2.7
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−0.5	+2.9	+4.0±4.3
FH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	−0.8	−0.2	−5.2±2.3
FH crosscourt	12%	+5.5	+0.5	+4.9	+11.0±4.0
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+0.1	+1.8	−2.4±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.1±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (140 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tomas	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+0.6	+1.8	+8.7±2.5
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	−0.7	+2.2	+10.3±3.4
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−1.0	±0.0	−5.2±2.4
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	±0.0	±0.0	+4.2±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.0	+0.3	−0.2±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (170 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tomas	Value
FH through the middle	65%	−3.5	−1.7	+1.0	−4.2±2.7
FH crosscourt	19%	−0.2	−0.8	+1.6	+0.6±3.5
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	−0.8	+2.2	−0.4±4.0

Lean FH through the middle: −1.5±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tomas	Value
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	−0.6	+1.4	+1.9±3.0
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	−1.2	−1.2	−5.2±2.3
FH through the middle	22%	−2.9	−1.0	+1.0	−2.9±2.3
FH inside-out	14%	+1.0	−1.9	+2.2	+1.2±3.6
FH inside-in	7%	+0.6	±0.0	+1.6	+2.2±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (169 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tomas Machac

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+8.8±3.3	+3.4	+5.4
FH to their forehand · return	+8.4±5.3	+6.2	+2.2
BH to their backhand · return	+4.6±3.8	+1.2	+3.4
BH to the middle · return	+4.1±2.9	+2.9	+1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.2±4.0	+2.9	+0.3
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.9±3.9	+0.7	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.3±4.4	−6.3	+1.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.3±4.7	−5.4	+1.1
FH to the middle · rally	−2.3±2.9	−1.2	−1.0
FH to their backhand · return	−2.2±4.9	+0.9	−3.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.4±4.0	−2.5	+1.2

Hugo Dellien

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.9±5.0	−0.6	+6.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.4±4.0	+1.4	+3.0
BH to the middle · serve +1	+4.0±3.1	−0.3	+4.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.2±5.2	+1.5	+0.7
BH to their backhand · return	+1.8±4.1	−0.6	+2.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.7±4.7	+0.1	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.5±4.2	−2.6	−0.9
FH to their backhand · return	−1.2±5.0	−1.6	+0.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	−1.2±4.9	+0.1	−1.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.0±3.4	+0.5	−1.4
FH to the middle · rally	−0.7±2.9	±0.0	−0.7

Against Hugo Dellien-like opponents

Tomas Machac v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.8%	35.7%
Players most similar to Hugo Dellien	2	60.1%	32.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Roberto Bautista Agut, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Francisco Cerundolo, Dusan Lajovic, Radu Albot, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Joao Sousa, Tommy Robredo, Albert Costa. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.