RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2019–2023

Hugo Dellien

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.3% ±3.4 raw 56.7% · tour 63.4% · 812 points
Return points won 36.2% ±3.4 raw 33.7% · tour 36.6% · 750 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.10 ±0.19 better than 31% of ATP · raw −0.10
Shot selection +0.10 ±0.41 better than 66% of ATP · raw +0.10
Execution −0.14 ±0.74 better than 60% of ATP · raw −0.11
Points left on the table 2.83 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 29% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,067 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Hugo Dellien goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 334 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH inside-out 21% 41.5%±8.5 51.8%
BH crosscourt 20% 55.3%±8.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 18% 49.1%±9.1 43.7%
FH inside-in 10% 54.6%±11.3 54.7%
BH down the line 10% 42.8%±11.3 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 8% 53.3%±12.0 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 37.2%±11.6 42.5%
FH through the middle 4% 45.6%±14.3 45.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 200 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 39% 44.2%±8.3 51.5%
FH crosscourt 19% 38.9%±10.5 52.7%
FH through the middle 19% 44.6%±10.8 47.0%
BH through the middle 9% 49.6%±13.5 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 194 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 53.0%±8.4 46.6%
FH down the line 24% 47.7%±10.0 44.7%
FH through the middle 22% 47.3%±10.4 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 9% 24.1%±11.6 24.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 160 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 21% 46.4%±11.3 48.0%
FH inside-out 18% 46.0%±11.7 52.6%
BH down the line 18% 44.4%±11.8 46.5%
BH through the middle 12% 55.8%±13.1 43.8%
FH inside-in 11% 44.4%±13.3 54.3%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 45.6%±13.7 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 8% 37.6%±14.1 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +5 How much less varied Hugo Dellien's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 116 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 23% ▼ 58% / 73%
Body 10% 31% ▲ 62% / 63%
T 41% 46% 62% / 75%

391 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 60% 62% 66% / 73%
Body 11% 6% 60% / 63%
T 30% 32% 64% / 72%

294 normal · 90 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 50.8%±5.4 n=198 34% ▼
Body12% 58.8%±9.2 n=48 12%
T41% 54.5%±5.8 n=171 54% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.30).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide60% 59.7%±5.0 n=231 57% ▼
Body10% 62.7%±9.7 n=37 0% ▼
T30% 59.8%±6.7 n=116 43% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.82).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.29 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.1±6.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (328 repeats, 455 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 7 35% −1.6±12.9
1stAd courtT 89 23% −5.0±6.3
1stAd courtWide 99 27% ±0.0±6.4
1stDeuce courtBody 12 41% +3.8±12.5
1stDeuce courtT 115 23% −2.0±5.8
1stDeuce courtWide 114 29% +2.1±6.2
2ndAd courtBody 16 52% +2.4±12.1
2ndAd courtT 24 35% −14.5±10.7
2ndAd courtWide 113 42% −6.1±6.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 19 50% +1.4±11.7
2ndDeuce courtT 78 51% +1.1±7.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 44 49% +1.1±9.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Hugo Dellien's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 4.1% · won 62% · +2.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 60% · +0.9±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 60% · +1.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-out used 4.6% · won 60% · +0.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 59% · −0.2±11.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 8.9% · won 41% · +3.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 8.5% · won 40% · +1.8±11.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 54% · +4.7±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 52% · +2.2±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 3.9% · won 51% · +1.2±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 51% · +1.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → FH down the line used 4.9% · won 49% · −0.6±10.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Hugo Dellien wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → FH inside-out used 0.7% · won 58% · +9.3±12.9 vs own baseline · +18.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (7/9)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 54% · +5.1±12.2 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (7/9)
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 51% · +2.8±12.0 vs own baseline · +5.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (5/6)
  4. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 51% · +3.0±12.6 vs own baseline · +2.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 50% · +1.8±12.4 vs own baseline · −0.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.0% · won 49% · +0.7±12.0 vs own baseline · +5.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+1.4302
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.3231
FH to their backhand · rally+1.1377
BH to the middle · return+0.7127
BH to their backhand · rally+0.5129

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · return−5.4137
BH to their backhand · return−3.4177
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.6173
T 1st serve · ad court−1.6152
BH to their backhand · rally−1.3287

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roman Safiullin, Tomas Machac, Miomir Kecmanovic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Tommy Paul

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in72%
Forehand share66%
Run-around forehands40%
Wide serves · ad60%
FH down the line35%
Avg rally length4.4
Wide serves · deuce47%
Drop shots / shot2.3%
BH down the line22%
Deep returns29%
Backhand slice24%
Chipped returns15%
Unforced errors / shot9.7%
Through the middle24%
Point-ending shots21.9%
Serve & volley0%
T serves · deuce41%
Points at net7%
T serves · ad30%

Plays most like

  1. Thiago Seyboth Wild 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Dusan Lajovic 2014–2025 plan v
  3. Tommy Robredo 2003–2022 plan v
  4. Casper Ruud 2017–2026 plan v
  5. Joao Sousa 2014–2024 plan v
  6. Bernabe Zapata Miralles 2019–2024 plan v
  7. Francisco Cerundolo 2020–2025 plan v
  8. Roberto Bautista Agut 2013–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Albert Costa 1996–2002
  2. Carlos Moya 1997–2007
  3. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005

Charted matches