Game plan

Tommy Robredo v Radu Albot

Every number combines what Tommy Robredo does well with what Radu Albot allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tommy Robredo wins, best of 3 61%90%: 27%–87% · best of 5: 63%

Serve points won 60.5% / 58.4% Tommy / Radu · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 61%serve 60.5% / 58.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tommy Robredo's record against Radu Albot's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tommy	Radu
Direction choice	−0.20 ±0.15 better than 15%	−0.18 ±0.13 better than 17%
Shot selection	−0.06 ±0.19 better than 47%	+0.38 ±0.16 better than 85%
Execution	−0.15 ±0.50 better than 60%	−0.85 ±0.44 better than 30%
Points left on the table	2.83 ±0.23 lower than 28%	2.77 ±0.28 lower than 33%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tommy Robredo serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tommy wins	v Radu	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	70%	75%	72.3%±6.7	59% ▲
Body	17%	59%	59%	54.2%±12.0	4% ▼
T	37%	71%	76%	71.9%±7.5	37%

Optimal v Radu Albot: +0.8±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tommy wins	v Radu	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	64%	76%	67.4%±6.8	42% ▼
Body	15%	61%	69%	67.7%±12.2	14%
T	31%	65%	72%	64.9%±8.5	44% ▲

Optimal v Radu Albot: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Radu Albot serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Radu wins	v Tommy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	69%	76%	72.3%±6.6	56% ▲
Body	20%	69%	61%	67.4%±11.3	7% ▼
T	37%	68%	79%	72.5%±7.3	37%

Optimal v Tommy Robredo: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Radu wins	v Tommy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	68%	72%	66.7%±7.2	66% ▲
Body	16%	67%	60%	64.3%±12.6	3% ▼
T	31%	62%	69%	58.5%±9.2	31%

Optimal v Tommy Robredo: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tommy Robredo returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Radu	Value
FH through the middle	36%	+4.3	−2.0	+1.9	+4.1±2.7
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	−3.2	+1.5	+3.9±4.4
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−3.5	+3.9	+2.1±4.5
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.2	+1.9	−2.0±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.3	+2.0	±0.0	−2.3±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +2.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (318 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Radu	Value
BH through the middle	27%	+6.4	+2.6	+0.6	+9.6±2.6
BH slice through the middle	23%	−4.2	+0.9	+0.5	−2.8±2.5
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−2.4	−0.1	+6.3±3.4
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	+0.7	−0.9	+0.4±3.0
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+0.9	+3.8	+8.9±4.6

Lean BH through the middle: +6.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (398 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Radu	Value
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	+1.4	−0.3	+0.8±4.3
FH through the middle	30%	−3.5	±0.0	+0.5	−2.9±2.8
FH down the line	22%	−1.8	+2.5	+1.8	+2.4±4.5
FH slice through the middle	14%	−12.7	−1.1	±0.0	−13.8±1.3

Lean FH down the line: +4.4±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (88 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Radu	Value
BH through the middle	30%	−2.9	−0.7	−1.3	−4.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	−1.6	±0.0	−0.5±3.2
FH inside-out	17%	+1.0	+1.6	+1.8	+4.4±3.7
FH through the middle	15%	−2.9	+0.8	+0.5	−1.5±2.4
FH inside-in	8%	+0.6	−0.4	−0.3	−0.2±4.3

Lean FH inside-out: +6.1±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (359 returns charted)

Radu Albot returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	−1.8	+2.8	+5.3±2.7
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+1.0	+1.2	+3.9±4.4
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	−1.5	−0.8	+3.2±4.4
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	+1.4	−3.6±2.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−1.6	−2.8	−8.6±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +2.2±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (248 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	−0.1	−0.2	+6.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+2.2	+1.3	+12.3±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	−1.2	+3.9	+3.2±3.0
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	±0.0	+0.5	−3.7±2.5
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−3.0	−0.3	+0.9±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.9±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (269 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
FH through the middle	56%	−3.5	+0.7	−3.4	−6.2±2.9
FH crosscourt	30%	−0.2	−3.2	+3.9	+0.4±4.3
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−1.4	+0.2	−3.0±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (89 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tommy	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.9	+1.2	−0.6	−2.3±2.4
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	+0.5	−0.6	+1.0±3.1
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+1.3	+1.4	+2.5±4.6
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	+0.8	−3.4	−5.6±2.2
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	±0.0	+0.2	+1.2±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.6±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (199 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tommy Robredo

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.9±5.2	+0.5	+2.4
FH to their backhand · return	+2.3±5.0	−1.6	+3.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.1±4.1	+1.6	+0.5
FH to their forehand · return	+1.1±5.9	−0.5	+1.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.0±4.5	−0.2	+1.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.0±5.1	−2.6	+3.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−5.5±4.5	−5.6	+0.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−2.7±5.9	+2.9	−5.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	−1.9±3.4	−2.1	+0.3
BH to the middle · return +1	−1.5±3.5	−0.1	−1.4
FH to the middle · rally	−1.1±2.9	−0.6	−0.5

Radu Albot

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+5.3±5.3	+4.5	+0.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.4±4.5	+1.9	+1.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±3.6	+2.9	−0.4
BH to their backhand · return	+2.2±3.6	+1.6	+0.6
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.1±3.7	+2.0	+0.1
FH to the middle · return	+1.1±3.3	−0.1	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return +1	−3.6±3.8	±0.0	−3.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.6±2.9	−2.3	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.0±4.0	−1.3	−1.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.9±3.6	−1.0	−1.9
BH to the middle · rally	−2.7±2.7	−2.2	−0.5

Against Radu Albot-like opponents

Tommy Robredo v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.3%	34.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Ben Shelton, Tommy Paul, Marcos Giron, Guy Den Ouden, Francisco Cerundolo, Daniel Elahi Galan, Ilya Ivashka. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.