Game plan

Adrian Mannarino v Ben Shelton

Every number combines what Adrian Mannarino does well with what Ben Shelton allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Adrian Mannarino wins, best of 3 28%90%: 9%–57% · best of 5: 23%

Serve points won 62.0% / 66.8% Adrian / Ben · tour 63.5%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 23%serve 62.0% / 67.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Adrian Mannarino's record against Ben Shelton's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +7.7 on serve, +12.9 on return vs expectation (185 points); head-to-head: −2.9 on serve, +2.4 on return vs expectation (506 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Adrian	Ben
Direction choice	−0.06 ±0.06 better than 41%	−0.37 ±0.06 better than 3%
Shot selection	+0.11 ±0.09 better than 66%	+0.04 ±0.16 better than 57%
Execution	−0.06 ±0.24 better than 66%	−0.67 ±0.48 better than 38%
Points left on the table	2.66 ±0.10 lower than 42%	3.64 ±0.10 lower than 7%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Adrian Mannarino +0.02, Ben Shelton +0.28. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Adrian Mannarino serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Ben	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	72%	75%	74.3%±3.7	63% ▲
Body	8%	61%	61%	59.0%±8.7	0% ▼
T	42%	65%	77%	68.2%±4.3	37% ▼

Optimal v Ben Shelton: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Ben	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	60%	70%	77%	73.7%±3.8	54% ▼
Body	7%	55%	64%	55.8%±9.2	0% ▼
T	32%	74%	74%	75.7%±4.2	46% ▲

Optimal v Ben Shelton: +0.8±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ben Shelton serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Ben wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	72%	78%	77.0%±3.4	59% ▲
Body	14%	62%	59%	58.3%±7.8	1% ▼
T	40%	72%	77%	74.0%±4.0	40%

Optimal v Adrian Mannarino: +1.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Ben wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	74%	75%	76.7%±3.4	51%
Body	14%	71%	63%	71.0%±7.3	1% ▼
T	35%	80%	73%	80.9%±3.7	48% ▲

Optimal v Adrian Mannarino: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Adrian Mannarino returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ben	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+2.2	−0.7	+5.7±1.9
FH down the line	26%	+1.7	−2.5	−2.4	−3.3±3.4
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+3.1	−2.3	+6.3±3.7
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	−0.3	−2.7	−7.3±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.3	−1.4	+0.2	−5.5±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.4±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (1039 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ben	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+0.2	+0.1	+6.7±1.6
BH crosscourt	23%	+8.8	−2.8	−2.5	+3.5±2.8
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	−1.9	−1.6	+0.7±3.8
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.6	−1.3	−6.1±2.3
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+0.2	−0.8	−9.1±3.5

Lean BH through the middle: +3.9±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1281 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ben	Value
FH through the middle	62%	−3.5	−0.1	−1.8	−5.3±2.0
FH crosscourt	22%	−0.2	−2.0	−4.3	−6.6±4.2
FH down the line	14%	−1.8	−3.4	−3.4	−8.6±4.5
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.3	−0.9	−0.4±1.3
FH slice through the middle	1%	−12.7	−0.9	−0.9	−14.4±1.7

Lean FH through the middle: +0.8±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (563 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Ben	Value
BH through the middle	42%	−2.9	+2.6	−0.9	−1.1±1.9
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.3	−3.4	−2.7±2.9
BH down the line	16%	−0.2	+1.9	−1.5	+0.3±4.5
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	−0.8	−1.7	−13.8±1.9
FH through the middle	1%	−2.9	−0.1	−1.8	−4.7±1.6

Lean BH down the line: +2.2±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (531 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Ben Shelton returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	−0.4	+0.6	+4.5±1.8
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	+1.6	+2.9	+6.2±3.6
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+2.0	+1.1	−1.1±2.2
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−0.2	−3.6	+1.7±4.0
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−2.3	+1.1	−5.4±3.1

Lean FH down the line: +3.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (792 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH through the middle	35%	+6.4	+0.3	+2.2	+8.9±1.7
BH slice through the middle	21%	−4.2	−0.3	+2.3	−2.2±1.8
BH down the line	17%	+4.2	−2.6	+4.3	+6.0±3.6
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	−5.4	−1.2	+2.2±3.0
BH slice down the line	8%	−8.4	+2.5	+3.8	−2.0±3.3

Lean BH through the middle: +5.2±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (972 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	−2.7	+1.3	−4.9±2.2
FH crosscourt	22%	−0.2	+1.2	−5.1	−4.1±4.0
FH down the line	20%	−1.8	−8.0	+3.2	−6.6±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.0±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (294 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH through the middle	56%	−2.9	+0.9	+1.3	−0.7±1.6
BH crosscourt	17%	+1.0	−1.0	+1.5	+1.6±2.9
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	−3.4	+0.1	−3.5±3.9
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	±0.0	+1.3	−1.6±2.0
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	−2.1	−5.1	−6.7±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (622 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.