Game plan

Alexandr Dolgopolov v Thomas Johansson

Every number combines what Alexandr Dolgopolov does well with what Thomas Johansson allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexandr Dolgopolov wins, best of 3 59%90%: 26%–86% · best of 5: 61%

Serve points won 67.4% / 65.5% Alexandr / Thomas · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 59%serve 67.4% / 65.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alexandr Dolgopolov's record against Thomas Johansson's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexandr	Thomas
Direction choice	+0.18 ±0.06 better than 92%	+0.21 ±0.10 better than 95%
Shot selection	−0.24 ±0.16 better than 28%	−0.32 ±0.24 better than 21%
Execution	−0.90 ±0.66 better than 28%	−0.41 ±0.55 better than 48%
Points left on the table	2.15 ±0.12 lower than 96%	2.34 ±0.29 lower than 80%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexandr Dolgopolov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexandr wins	v Thomas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	65%	73%	74%	73.6%±6.0	66% ▲
Body	7%	63%	57%	56.2%±14.5	0% ▼
T	28%	80%	74%	79.5%±6.7	34% ▲

Optimal v Thomas Johansson: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexandr wins	v Thomas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	70%	78%	76.0%±6.6	52% ▼
Body	7%	62%	60%	59.2%±14.2	0% ▼
T	35%	74%	76%	77.9%±6.4	48% ▲

Optimal v Thomas Johansson: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Thomas Johansson serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Thomas wins	v Alexandr	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	57%	76%	75%	77.4%±5.5	70% ▲
Body	4%	57%	68%	62.2%±13.8	0% ▼
T	40%	81%	72%	78.8%±7.3	30% ▼

Optimal v Alexandr Dolgopolov: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Thomas wins	v Alexandr	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	75%	74%	76.0%±6.9	42% ▼
Body	5%	65%	60%	62.2%±14.1	0% ▼
T	45%	79%	76%	82.6%±5.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Alexandr Dolgopolov: +1.1±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexandr Dolgopolov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
FH slice through the middle	36%	−4.2	+1.7	+1.7	−0.8±2.2
FH slice down the line	20%	−4.3	+0.6	−0.7	−4.4±2.8
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−7.1	−0.6	−6.0±4.5
FH through the middle	15%	+4.3	−3.0	−0.6	+0.7±3.0
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+1.7	+0.3	−2.4±2.4
FH crosscourt	5%	+5.5	−2.3	−2.5	+0.8±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.1±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (401 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.4	−1.3	±0.0	+5.1±2.7
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	+0.1	−1.4	+7.5±3.5
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−1.4	−0.2	+2.6±4.4
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.6	+1.3	−4.5±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−1.7	−0.1	−1.4±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (344 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
FH down the line	39%	−1.8	+2.3	+1.2	+1.7±4.6
FH through the middle	24%	−3.5	−1.7	−0.9	−6.1±2.8
FH slice down the line	17%	−9.4	−0.6	±0.0	−10.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	10%	−0.2	−0.4	+2.3	+1.7±3.7
FH slice through the middle	10%	−12.7	−0.4	+1.2	−11.9±1.6

Lean FH down the line: +5.2±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (94 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
BH crosscourt	52%	+1.0	−0.9	+1.8	+2.0±3.1
BH through the middle	31%	−2.9	−1.6	+1.1	−3.4±2.5
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	−0.6	−2.5	−3.3±4.8
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.0	±0.0	+3.5	−0.4±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (175 returns charted)

Thomas Johansson returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	−0.7	+0.6	+4.1±2.7
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+1.7	−1.1	+2.3±4.5
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	−1.7	−0.2	+3.6±4.4
FH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−0.8	+0.9	−4.1±2.2
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−2.0	−0.6	−6.9±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +1.5±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (261 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.4	−0.9	−0.9	+4.6±2.8
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	−1.0	+0.1	+8.0±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	+1.0	+1.5	+3.0±3.0
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.8	−1.0	+4.0±4.4
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−2.7	+1.0	−5.9±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (214 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	+1.2	−0.4	−1.0±4.6
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	+0.4	+2.0	−1.1±2.7
FH crosscourt	17%	−0.2	+0.2	−0.8	−0.8±3.9

Lean FH down the line: ±0.0±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandr	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	−2.0	−3.4	−8.3±2.5
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	−0.6	+1.1	+1.5±3.1
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−0.4	+1.3	+0.7±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (117 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alexandr Dolgopolov

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+5.6±6.1	+5.5	+0.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.3±5.9	+3.3	±0.0
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.2±4.5	+1.0	+0.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+0.5±3.1	+1.9	−1.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.5±5.8	−1.0	+1.5
BH to their backhand · rally	±0.0±3.9	+0.8	−0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	−4.7±5.8	−2.4	−2.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.7±4.9	−6.5	+1.9
FH to their backhand · return	−4.2±6.0	−4.8	+0.6
BH to their backhand · return	−3.5±5.0	−2.1	−1.4
FH to the middle · return	−2.2±4.1	−1.5	−0.7

Thomas Johansson

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.2±4.9	+2.9	+1.3
FH to the middle · rally	+2.4±3.6	+0.3	+2.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.3±5.5	−0.2	+2.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.7±4.9	−1.7	+3.4
FH to the middle · return	+1.6±3.9	−0.6	+2.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+1.2±5.4	+2.8	−1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−15.5±5.9	−9.1	−6.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	−9.5±5.8	−3.2	−6.4
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.7±5.7	−2.2	−2.5
FH to their backhand · return	−2.9±5.7	−0.2	−2.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	−2.7±3.7	−0.1	−2.6

Against Thomas Johansson-like opponents

Alexandr Dolgopolov v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.8%	34.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Nishesh Basavareddy, Richard Gasquet, Gregoire Barrere, Tomas Berdych, Ivan Ljubicic, Nicolas Kiefer, Arnaud Clement, Jiri Novak, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Thomas Enqvist. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.