Game plan
Andrei Pavel v Milos Raonic
Every number combines what Andrei Pavel does well with what Milos Raonic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Andrei Pavel's record against Milos Raonic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Andrei | Milos |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.18 ±0.09 better than 16% | +0.11 ±0.05 better than 82% |
| Shot selection | +0.06 ±0.31 better than 60% | +0.70 ±0.10 better than 97% |
| Execution | +0.16 ±0.60 better than 75% | −0.74 ±0.34 better than 35% |
| Points left on the table | 3.10 ±0.37 lower than 15% | 2.59 ±0.09 lower than 50% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Andrei Pavel serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Andrei wins | v Milos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 43% | 71% | 76% | 73.9%±6.7 | 37% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 67% | 69% | 72.2%±10.8 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 49% | 79% | 78% | 82.0%±5.2 | 63% ▲ |
Optimal v Milos Raonic: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Andrei wins | v Milos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 53% | 65% | 78% | 71.3%±6.5 | 66% ▲ |
| Body | 4% | 62% | 66% | 64.3%±13.0 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 42% | 60% | 76% | 64.6%±7.6 | 34% ▼ |
Optimal v Milos Raonic: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Milos Raonic serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Milos wins | v Andrei | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 77% | 79% | 83.0%±5.2 | 43% ▼ |
| Body | 7% | 74% | 68% | 78.0%±10.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 85% | 78% | 86.9%±4.4 | 57% ▲ |
Optimal v Andrei Pavel: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Milos wins | v Andrei | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 55% | 84% | 75% | 85.4%±4.7 | 50% ▼ |
| Body | 7% | 67% | 64% | 68.5%±12.7 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 80% | 73% | 80.3%±5.8 | 50% ▲ |
Optimal v Andrei Pavel: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Andrei Pavel returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Milos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 56% | +4.3 | −2.0 | −1.3 | +1.0±2.5 |
| FH down the line | 24% | +1.7 | −1.5 | −1.5 | −1.2±4.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | +5.5 | +1.0 | −3.1 | +3.4±3.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (144 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Milos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 40% | −4.2 | +1.1 | −0.2 | −3.3±2.2 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | +6.4 | −1.2 | −2.1 | +3.1±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 13% | +8.8 | −0.1 | −1.8 | +6.9±3.0 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 11% | +0.5 | +1.1 | −0.9 | +0.7±2.5 |
| BH slice down the line | 9% | −8.4 | −0.3 | −2.8 | −11.5±3.1 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +7.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (141 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Milos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 50% | −3.5 | +1.3 | −0.6 | −2.7±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 33% | −0.2 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +1.7±4.0 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | −0.3 | −4.2 | −6.3±3.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (46 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Milos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 45% | +1.0 | +1.7 | −1.6 | +1.1±2.7 |
| BH through the middle | 31% | −2.9 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −3.5±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 13% | −0.2 | −1.2 | −2.8 | −4.2±4.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 11% | −4.0 | +0.2 | −2.0 | −5.8±2.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (116 returns charted)
Milos Raonic returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andrei | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 48% | +4.3 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +3.5±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 27% | +5.5 | −3.8 | +2.6 | +4.2±3.7 |
| FH down the line | 17% | +1.7 | −2.5 | −0.7 | −1.6±4.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −4.2 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −6.0±1.6 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | −4.3 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −5.7±1.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1484 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andrei | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 39% | +6.4 | −0.5 | +1.2 | +7.1±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 24% | +8.8 | −2.9 | −0.7 | +5.2±3.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 14% | −4.2 | −1.5 | +0.6 | −5.1±2.2 |
| BH down the line | 12% | +4.2 | −0.9 | −1.9 | +1.4±3.7 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 7% | +0.5 | −1.5 | −0.3 | −1.3±2.8 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.0±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1719 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andrei | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | −3.5 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −3.7±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 32% | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.3±4.2 |
| FH down the line | 19% | −1.8 | −1.0 | +0.2 | −2.6±4.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | +0.2 | +0.7 | −11.8±1.5 |
| FH slice down the line | 1% | −9.4 | −0.6 | +2.1 | −7.9±1.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (383 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andrei | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | −2.9 | −1.5 | +0.9 | −3.5±2.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 30% | +1.0 | −3.3 | −0.4 | −2.7±2.8 |
| BH down the line | 10% | −0.2 | +0.3 | +2.2 | +2.3±4.4 |
| FH through the middle | 8% | −2.9 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −2.6±2.4 |
| FH inside-in | 4% | +0.6 | −2.7 | −0.4 | −2.6±4.4 |
Lean BH down the line: +5.1±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1074 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Andrei Pavel
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +4.0±3.9 | +3.3 | +0.7 |
| BH slice to the middle · return | +2.4±2.9 | +3.8 | −1.5 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.4±3.5 | +0.6 | −0.2 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −0.9±2.6 | ±0.0 | −0.9 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.1±2.7 | −0.4 | −0.8 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −1.6±3.4 | −3.0 | +1.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | −5.0±2.9 | −2.3 | −2.7 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −3.9±4.2 | −4.5 | +0.6 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −3.3±4.6 | −3.6 | +0.3 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −2.5±2.5 | −1.2 | −1.3 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −2.0±3.8 | +0.6 | −2.6 |
Milos Raonic
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | +5.3±4.5 | +3.3 | +2.1 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +5.3±4.3 | −0.6 | +5.9 |
| BH to the middle · return | +2.4±2.8 | −0.5 | +2.8 |
| FH to the middle · return | −0.5±2.8 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −0.6±5.1 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| BH slice to the middle · return | −1.2±2.9 | −1.6 | +0.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · rally | −10.5±5.5 | −6.3 | −4.1 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −6.6±3.0 | −4.9 | −1.7 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −4.6±3.4 | −1.6 | −3.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | −4.6±4.9 | −1.9 | −2.6 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −3.8±3.0 | −2.3 | −1.5 |
Against Milos Raonic-like opponents
| Andrei Pavel v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 62.2% | 32.9% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Alexei Popyrin, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Thanasi Kokkinakis, John Isner, Jeremy Chardy, Sam Querrey, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Jack Sock, Fernando Gonzalez. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.