Game plan

Barbora Strycova v Martina Navratilova

Every number combines what Barbora Strycova does well with what Martina Navratilova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Barbora Strycova wins, best of 3 46%90%: 18%–76% · best of 5: 45%

Serve points won 57.8% / 58.6% Barbora / Martina · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 46%serve 57.8% / 58.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Barbora Strycova's record against Martina Navratilova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Barbora	Martina
Direction choice	±0.00 ±0.10 better than 53%	+0.05 ±0.09 better than 63%
Shot selection	−0.31 ±0.25 better than 21%	+0.74 ±0.23 better than 98%
Execution	−0.18 ±0.48 better than 52%	−0.47 ±0.49 better than 35%
Points left on the table	2.69 ±0.11 lower than 35%	4.11 ±0.23 lower than 0%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Barbora Strycova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Martina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	67%	61%	62.5%±8.0	35%
Body	25%	59%	58%	59.1%±9.4	10% ▼
T	40%	70%	67%	69.0%±8.3	55% ▲

Optimal v Martina Navratilova: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Barbora wins	v Martina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	57%	61.1%±9.1	40% ▲
Body	22%	52%	62%	58.8%±9.8	7% ▼
T	45%	57%	67%	59.6%±7.7	53% ▲

Optimal v Martina Navratilova: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Martina Navratilova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Martina wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	65%	69%	67.9%±7.9	23% ▼
Body	15%	61%	61%	64.4%±9.7	15%
T	47%	66%	65%	63.2%±7.7	62% ▲

Optimal v Barbora Strycova: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Martina wins	v Barbora	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	59%	64%	65%	63.7%±7.9	68% ▲
Body	12%	58%	61%	62.8%±10.8	0% ▼
T	29%	67%	61%	63.3%±8.5	32% ▲

Optimal v Barbora Strycova: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Barbora Strycova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
FH slice through the middle	37%	−6.7	+3.5	+0.9	−2.3±2.5
FH through the middle	32%	+4.2	+0.4	−3.2	+1.4±2.8
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.3	−0.8	+3.2	+7.7±4.0
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+2.2	+2.4	−2.0±2.5
FH slice down the line	5%	−10.5	+0.3	−1.6	−11.9±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +7.8±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.0	+2.9	−4.4	+4.6±2.6
BH slice through the middle	29%	−6.2	+1.4	−2.0	−6.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	15%	+7.7	+2.3	+3.1	+13.1±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	10%	−4.2	+1.5	+12.4	+9.8±2.7
BH down the line	8%	+2.2	+3.4	−2.3	+3.2±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +10.6±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (164 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
FH through the middle	57%	−3.2	+1.1	+1.0	−1.1±2.8
FH crosscourt	19%	+0.5	+1.1	+2.2	+3.9±3.8
FH down the line	14%	−0.6	+3.1	+2.0	+4.5±4.4
FH slice through the middle	10%	−15.2	+1.2	±0.0	−14.0±1.1

Lean FH through the middle: −0.5±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (63 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Martina	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.5	−1.1	+5.5	+5.9±3.5
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	±0.0	+1.3	−1.4±2.5
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+0.9	+0.8	+1.1±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (49 returns charted)

Martina Navratilova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	−2.8	+3.1	+4.5±2.7
FH crosscourt	40%	+5.3	+2.1	+3.0	+10.4±4.0
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	+0.1	+1.2	+2.8±4.7
BH slice through the middle	3%	−4.8	+1.0	+0.9	−2.9±2.1
FH slice through the middle	1%	−6.7	+0.5	−0.7	−7.0±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (420 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH slice through the middle	43%	−6.2	+7.2	+0.9	+1.9±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	24%	−4.2	+6.2	−0.7	+1.3±2.1
BH slice down the line	13%	−12.5	+8.8	+0.2	−3.4±3.0
BH through the middle	10%	+6.0	−0.9	+1.0	+6.2±2.8
BH crosscourt	4%	+7.7	−2.5	−2.5	+2.7±3.7

Lean BH through the middle: +4.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (976 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	+1.6	+2.0	+4.1±4.3
FH down the line	31%	−0.6	−4.6	+1.8	−3.4±5.3
FH through the middle	27%	−3.2	−2.6	+2.7	−3.1±3.1
FH slice down the line	3%	−14.1	+1.3	±0.0	−12.7±1.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (193 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Barbora	Value
BH slice through the middle	35%	−11.7	+5.6	±0.0	−6.1±1.6
BH slice down the line	20%	−10.6	+6.9	±0.0	−3.6±3.1
BH slice crosscourt	15%	−7.5	+2.7	±0.0	−4.8±2.1
BH down the line	6%	−0.5	+3.2	−2.8	−0.1±5.0
FH inside-in	6%	+0.7	+4.2	+2.0	+7.0±4.3

Lean FH inside-in: +10.1±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (298 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Barbora Strycova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	+5.7±3.5	+3.1	+2.6
BH to their forehand · rally	+4.9±6.0	+0.7	+4.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.3±5.4	+1.3	+3.0
FH to their forehand · return	+3.7±6.0	+2.3	+1.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+0.9±5.5	+2.4	−1.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.6±5.6	+2.8	−2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	−4.6±5.6	−2.8	−1.7
FH to the middle · rally	−4.2±3.7	+0.2	−4.4
BH to the middle · rally	−3.5±3.3	−0.7	−2.8
FH to the middle · serve +1	−2.8±3.9	−2.0	−0.8
BH to the middle · return	−2.8±3.4	+0.6	−3.4

Martina Navratilova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	+12.6±5.9	+7.9	+4.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	+9.2±7.0	+4.5	+4.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	+3.8±5.7	−1.5	+5.3
BH to the middle · return	+2.1±3.8	+2.2	±0.0
FH to the middle · return	+0.8±3.7	−2.7	+3.5
FH to the middle · serve +1	+0.3±4.3	+3.0	−2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−8.5±5.0	−7.8	−0.7
BH to the middle · rally	−7.2±3.6	−6.2	−1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−6.5±4.7	−4.8	−1.7
BH to their backhand · return	−5.1±5.6	−1.1	−4.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.3±5.8	−1.5	−1.8

Against Martina Navratilova-like opponents

Barbora Strycova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	55.5%	42.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karolina Muchova, Taylor Townsend, Kirsten Flipkens, Francesca Schiavone, Roberta Vinci, Amelie Mauresmo, Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, Jana Novotna, Gabriela Sabatini. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.