Game plan

Conchita Martinez v Steffi Graf

Every number combines what Conchita Martinez does well with what Steffi Graf allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Conchita Martinez wins, best of 3 21%90%: 6%–49% · best of 5: 15%

Serve points won 54.3% / 60.5% Conchita / Steffi · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 19%serve 53.4% / 60.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Conchita Martinez's record against Steffi Graf's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +6.2 on serve, −2.6 on return vs expectation (437 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Conchita	Steffi
Direction choice	+0.23 ±0.15 better than 88%	+0.53 ±0.08 better than 100%
Shot selection	−0.92 ±0.32 better than 4%	−0.44 ±0.09 better than 13%
Execution	+1.03 ±0.87 better than 93%	−0.43 ±0.23 better than 36%
Points left on the table	2.70 ±0.22 lower than 34%	2.61 ±0.12 lower than 52%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Conchita Martinez serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Conchita wins	v Steffi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	58%	63%	54.0%±7.7	62% ▲
Body	20%	52%	55%	49.5%±9.7	5% ▼
T	34%	63%	57%	51.1%±9.5	33%

Optimal v Steffi Graf: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Conchita wins	v Steffi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	55%	58%	46.2%±6.8	40% ▼
Body	14%	59%	52%	55.1%±11.3	14%
T	31%	57%	62%	54.8%±9.6	46% ▲

Optimal v Steffi Graf: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Steffi Graf serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Steffi wins	v Conchita	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	68%	72%	73.9%±6.9	65% ▲
Body	14%	57%	59%	57.9%±10.2	0% ▼
T	36%	67%	64%	62.9%±8.5	35%

Optimal v Conchita Martinez: +1.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Steffi wins	v Conchita	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	57%	64%	66%	65.4%±7.0	72% ▲
Body	13%	58%	50%	52.9%±11.0	0% ▼
T	30%	67%	67%	69.6%±9.4	28% ▼

Optimal v Conchita Martinez: +0.9±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Conchita Martinez returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Steffi	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	−0.4	−3.5	+0.3±2.5
FH down the line	34%	+1.5	+2.0	+1.5	+5.1±3.9
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.3	+2.9	−0.2	+8.0±3.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (106 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Steffi	Value
BH slice through the middle	36%	−6.2	−1.1	+3.9	−3.4±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	28%	−4.2	+3.8	+4.4	+4.0±2.5
BH slice down the line	12%	−12.5	+3.1	+3.7	−5.7±3.4
BH through the middle	10%	+6.0	+0.5	−4.6	+1.9±2.2
BH crosscourt	9%	+7.7	+0.3	−3.4	+4.6±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (165 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Steffi	Value
FH down the line	47%	−0.6	+3.3	+1.1	+3.9±4.2
FH crosscourt	29%	+0.5	−0.2	+1.9	+2.2±3.6
FH through the middle	24%	−3.2	−0.1	−1.8	−5.1±2.3

Lean FH down the line: +2.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (49 returns charted)

Steffi Graf returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Conchita	Value
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	+1.6	+1.8	+8.7±3.7
FH through the middle	30%	+4.2	−4.4	±0.0	−0.3±2.8
FH down the line	13%	+1.5	−0.7	+1.3	+2.2±4.5
FH slice through the middle	12%	−6.7	+2.6	+0.5	−3.6±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−6.6	+2.7	±0.0	−3.9±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (951 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Conchita	Value
BH slice crosscourt	41%	−4.2	+7.1	+4.5	+7.4±2.3
BH slice through the middle	32%	−6.2	+2.5	+2.8	−1.0±2.0
BH slice down the line	13%	−12.5	+9.4	+3.3	+0.2±3.0
BH through the middle	3%	+6.0	−5.6	−1.8	−1.3±3.0
FH inside-out	3%	+7.0	−4.1	+1.3	+4.3±3.9
FH inside-in	2%	+9.5	+0.8	+1.8	+12.1±4.1

Lean FH inside-in: +8.8±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2089 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Conchita	Value
FH crosscourt	45%	+0.5	+0.8	+0.9	+2.2±3.9
FH through the middle	32%	−3.2	−6.0	−1.4	−10.6±2.8
FH down the line	23%	−0.6	+3.6	+1.6	+4.6±4.8

Lean FH down the line: +5.9±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (350 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Conchita	Value
BH slice crosscourt	27%	−7.5	+3.0	+3.6	−0.9±2.5
FH inside-out	23%	+1.4	+0.5	+1.6	+3.4±3.5
FH inside-in	15%	+0.7	+4.1	+0.9	+5.7±4.2
BH slice through the middle	14%	−11.7	+2.2	+0.6	−8.9±2.2
FH through the middle	12%	−2.7	−3.0	−1.4	−7.1±2.4

Lean FH inside-in: +7.1±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (927 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.