Game plan

David Wheaton v Milos Raonic

Every number combines what David Wheaton does well with what Milos Raonic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

David Wheaton wins, best of 3 31%90%: 13%–55% · best of 5: 27%

Serve points won 69.0% / 73.3% David / Milos · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 31%serve 69.0% / 73.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by David Wheaton's record against Milos Raonic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	David	Milos
Direction choice	−0.35 ±0.17 better than 4%	+0.11 ±0.05 better than 82%
Shot selection	+0.55 ±0.20 better than 95%	+0.70 ±0.10 better than 97%
Execution	−0.43 ±0.91 better than 47%	−0.74 ±0.34 better than 35%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

David Wheaton serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Milos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	37%	69%	76%	72.3%±6.5	40% ▲
Body	19%	62%	69%	67.8%±9.0	6% ▼
T	44%	77%	78%	79.6%±6.3	54% ▲

Optimal v Milos Raonic: +0.5±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Milos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	76%	78%	80.5%±5.7	47%
Body	19%	61%	66%	63.9%±9.9	6% ▼
T	35%	72%	76%	75.2%±6.6	47% ▲

Optimal v Milos Raonic: +0.9±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Milos Raonic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Milos wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	77%	72%	76.6%±5.7	43% ▼
Body	7%	74%	68%	77.6%±9.3	0% ▼
T	44%	85%	81%	88.7%±4.0	57% ▲

Optimal v David Wheaton: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Milos wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	84%	67%	80.0%±5.8	50% ▼
Body	7%	67%	72%	76.1%±10.4	0% ▼
T	37%	80%	76%	83.0%±4.9	50% ▲

Optimal v David Wheaton: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

David Wheaton returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−1.3	−1.3	+1.7±2.4
FH down the line	29%	+1.7	−1.0	−1.5	−0.8±4.0
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+4.3	−3.1	+6.7±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.4	+2.2	−2.1	+6.5±2.4
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	+3.5	−1.8	+10.5±3.0
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	+1.1	−4.6	+0.7±4.2
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−0.7	−0.2	−5.2±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	10%	+0.5	+1.0	−0.9	+0.6±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (123 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+0.2	−0.6	−3.9±2.5
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	+2.6	+0.9	+3.2±4.0
FH down the line	26%	−1.8	+2.8	−4.2	−3.1±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.0±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (62 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Milos	Value
BH through the middle	46%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.4	−2.3±2.1
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	−0.1	−1.6	−0.6±2.6
BH down the line	25%	−0.2	+1.6	−2.8	−1.4±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (81 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Milos Raonic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	−0.8	−0.4	+3.0±2.4
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.5	−3.8	+2.7	+4.4±3.7
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−2.5	−0.2	−1.1±4.0
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	−1.8	±0.0	−6.0±1.6
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.3	−1.3	±0.0	−5.7±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1484 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−0.5	−0.9	+5.0±2.2
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−2.9	−2.1	+3.8±3.0
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−1.5	−1.1	−6.8±2.0
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−0.9	−3.2	+0.1±4.1
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−1.5	+0.9	−0.1±2.6

Lean BH through the middle: +3.5±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1719 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.5	−0.4	−2.1	−5.9±2.7
FH crosscourt	32%	−0.2	+0.3	−0.2	−0.2±4.2
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−1.0	+0.1	−2.8±4.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+0.2	±0.0	−12.5±1.1
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.6	±0.0	−10.0±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (383 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−1.5	−1.4	−5.9±2.2
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	−3.3	+3.9	+1.6±2.8
BH down the line	10%	−0.2	+0.3	−3.7	−3.6±4.6
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.1	−2.1	−4.8±2.4
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	−2.7	−0.2	−2.4±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.9±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1074 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

David Wheaton

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+8.4±6.6	+9.3	−0.9
BH to their forehand · return	+7.0±6.6	+10.5	−3.4
BH to the middle · return	+1.1±3.4	+1.1	±0.0
FH to the middle · return	+0.2±3.5	−1.6	+1.8
FH to their backhand · return	−1.1±5.8	+3.8	−4.9
BH to their backhand · return	−3.2±5.0	+1.3	−4.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−3.2±5.0	+1.3	−4.4
FH to their backhand · return	−1.1±5.8	+3.8	−4.9
FH to the middle · return	+0.2±3.5	−1.6	+1.8
BH to the middle · return	+1.1±3.4	+1.1	±0.0
BH to their forehand · return	+7.0±6.6	+10.5	−3.4

Milos Raonic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+4.2±6.1	−0.6	+4.8
BH to their backhand · return	+1.6±4.9	−0.5	+2.2
FH to the middle · return	−1.1±3.5	−0.9	−0.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±4.7	−4.0	+2.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.8±5.0	−0.9	−1.0
BH to the middle · return	−2.8±3.2	−0.4	−2.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−5.1±5.8	−4.9	−0.2
BH to the middle · return	−2.8±3.2	−0.4	−2.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.8±5.0	−0.9	−1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.2±4.7	−4.0	+2.8
FH to the middle · return	−1.1±3.5	−0.9	−0.2

Against Milos Raonic-like opponents

David Wheaton v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.1%	33.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Alexei Popyrin, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Thanasi Kokkinakis, John Isner, Jeremy Chardy, Sam Querrey, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Jack Sock, Fernando Gonzalez. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.