Game plan

Fabian Marozsan v Gijs Brouwer

Every number combines what Fabian Marozsan does well with what Gijs Brouwer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Fabian Marozsan wins, best of 3 60%90%: 37%–80% · best of 5: 62%

Serve points won 64.7% / 62.7% Fabian / Gijs · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 57%serve 64.2% / 62.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Fabian Marozsan's record against Gijs Brouwer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +5.5 on serve, +2.0 on return vs expectation (303 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Fabian	Gijs
Direction choice	+0.17 ±0.08 better than 91%	+0.02 ±0.09 better than 62%
Shot selection	+0.04 ±0.26 better than 58%	−0.08 ±0.26 better than 42%
Execution	+0.87 ±0.78 better than 93%	−1.66 ±0.67 better than 7%
Points left on the table	2.29 ±0.13 lower than 85%	3.10 ±0.19 lower than 16%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Fabian Marozsan −0.42, Gijs Brouwer +0.30. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Fabian Marozsan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Fabian wins	v Gijs	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	75%	71.0%±6.9	60% ▲
Body	10%	69%	59%	65.1%±11.3	0% ▼
T	44%	69%	69%	61.7%±8.3	40% ▼

Optimal v Gijs Brouwer: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Fabian wins	v Gijs	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	71%	78%	76.5%±7.2	63% ▲
Body	11%	69%	70%	75.2%±9.7	10% ▼
T	38%	64%	73%	65.1%±8.0	27% ▼

Optimal v Gijs Brouwer: +0.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Gijs Brouwer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Gijs wins	v Fabian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	82%	72%	80.6%±6.7	29% ▼
Body	12%	57%	61%	55.1%±13.2	0% ▼
T	58%	69%	79%	73.7%±6.1	71% ▲

Optimal v Fabian Marozsan: +1.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Gijs wins	v Fabian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	60%	67%	72%	66.8%±6.9	54% ▼
Body	7%	68%	64%	68.7%±13.4	0% ▼
T	33%	71%	71%	70.1%±8.1	46% ▲

Optimal v Fabian Marozsan: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Fabian Marozsan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gijs	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.3	+1.4	±0.0	+5.6±2.8
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	+4.6	−1.1	+9.0±4.4
FH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	+0.1	+0.2	−3.9±2.3
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+4.8	−1.3	+5.2±4.4
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+1.0	±0.0	−3.3±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.4±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (360 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gijs	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+2.1	+0.7	+9.2±2.5
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	+2.5	−2.7	+8.5±3.5
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.3	−3.7±2.5
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	−1.2	−3.1	−0.1±4.5
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−0.9	−0.1	−0.5±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +3.8±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (317 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gijs	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+0.6	±0.0	−2.9±2.9
FH down the line	26%	−1.8	−0.4	−1.6	−3.7±4.2
FH crosscourt	24%	−0.2	+1.6	−2.7	−1.3±4.1
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	−0.1	±0.0	−12.7±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (104 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gijs	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	+2.4	−0.7	−1.2±2.4
BH crosscourt	40%	+1.0	+1.7	+0.6	+3.4±3.2
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	+1.8	−2.0	−0.4±4.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.6±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (229 returns charted)

Gijs Brouwer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabian	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−0.3	+3.4	+7.4±2.8
FH down the line	27%	+1.7	−3.6	+7.1	+5.2±4.5
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+1.0	+2.9	+9.4±4.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (179 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabian	Value
BH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	−1.7	+0.3	−5.6±2.5
BH through the middle	27%	+6.4	−2.8	+3.5	+7.1±2.6
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+0.2	+4.9	+9.3±4.3
BH slice down the line	12%	−8.4	+0.6	+1.7	−6.1±3.4
BH crosscourt	12%	+8.8	−3.2	+3.4	+9.0±3.5

Lean BH down the line: +7.9±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (267 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabian	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	−2.2	+1.0	−4.7±2.9
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	−0.6	−0.7	−1.6±4.4
FH down the line	14%	−1.8	−1.5	+0.9	−2.4±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (85 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabian	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	−0.6	+1.0	−2.4±2.4
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.0	−2.0	+3.7	+2.7±3.3
BH down the line	22%	−0.2	−0.1	+1.2	+0.9±4.6
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	−1.3	+1.0	−3.1±2.1
BH slice through the middle	7%	−11.3	−0.1	±0.0	−11.4±1.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (144 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Fabian Marozsan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+4.1±2.6	+3.0	+1.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.4±4.0	+1.8	+1.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.0±5.5	+1.0	+2.0
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.4±5.9	+3.1	−0.7
BH to their backhand · return	+2.3±4.0	+3.5	−1.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.2±4.6	−1.1	+3.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−6.6±3.4	−4.9	−1.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.6±3.0	+0.3	−5.9
BH to the middle · rally	−5.4±2.8	−2.0	−3.4
FH to their backhand · return	−3.9±5.9	−0.3	−3.7
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.3±5.5	+0.9	−4.1

Gijs Brouwer

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	+4.2±4.1	−0.2	+4.4
BH to their forehand · return	+3.9±6.5	−3.3	+7.2
FH to the middle · return	+3.7±2.9	−0.8	+4.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.3±5.4	+2.2	+1.2
BH to the middle · return	+2.1±2.8	−1.6	+3.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.4±5.6	−3.8	+5.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.9±3.5	−3.7	+0.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.5±3.1	−0.7	−1.9
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.9±3.2	−2.7	+0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.1±3.3	−2.5	+1.4
BH slice to the middle · rally	−0.8±3.3	+1.0	−1.8

Against Gijs Brouwer-like opponents

Fabian Marozsan v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.6%	34.5%
Players most similar to Gijs Brouwer	2	68.2%	35.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Joao Fonseca, Denis Shapovalov, Thiago Monteiro, Rafael Nadal, Jeremy Chardy, Tim Van Rijthoven, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin Del Potro, Pablo Cuevas, Philipp Kohlschreiber. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.