Game plan

Goran Ivanisevic v Michael Stich

Every number combines what Goran Ivanisevic does well with what Michael Stich allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Goran Ivanisevic wins, best of 3 56%90%: 33%–78% · best of 5: 58%

Serve points won 68.6% / 67.3% Goran / Michael · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 62%serve 67.2% / 64.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Goran Ivanisevic's record against Michael Stich's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.7 on serve, −2.3 on return vs expectation (4901 points); head-to-head: −1.4 on serve, −6.7 on return vs expectation (611 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Goran	Michael
Direction choice	−0.30 ±0.08 better than 5%	−0.23 ±0.10 better than 10%
Shot selection	+0.24 ±0.16 better than 75%	+0.53 ±0.16 better than 95%
Execution	−0.76 ±0.38 better than 34%	−1.39 ±0.40 better than 13%
Points left on the table	4.76 ±0.30 lower than 1%	4.51 ±0.30 lower than 2%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Goran Ivanisevic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Goran wins	v Michael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	82%	75%	83.3%±3.0	34% ▼
Body	5%	63%	71%	70.3%±7.8	0% ▼
T	53%	81%	77%	82.2%±3.1	66% ▲

Optimal v Michael Stich: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Goran wins	v Michael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	81%	77%	83.7%±2.7	44% ▼
Body	3%	66%	70%	72.8%±8.7	0% ▼
T	43%	88%	75%	89.3%±2.4	56% ▲

Optimal v Michael Stich: +0.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Michael Stich serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Michael wins	v Goran	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	77%	79%	82.3%±2.9	53% ▲
Body	10%	60%	68%	64.4%±7.8	0% ▼
T	51%	80%	84%	87.7%±2.6	47% ▼

Optimal v Goran Ivanisevic: +1.0±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Michael wins	v Goran	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	77%	78%	81.6%±3.3	54% ▲
Body	8%	68%	63%	67.6%±8.0	0% ▼
T	51%	75%	78%	80.1%±3.1	46% ▼

Optimal v Goran Ivanisevic: +0.7±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Goran Ivanisevic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−3.9	−1.9	−1.6±1.9
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−3.1	+2.3	+0.9±3.6
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+0.8	−2.3	+4.0±3.5
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	−0.2	−2.0	−3.8±1.7
BH inside-in	1%	+7.7	±0.0	−2.0	+5.8±2.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (827 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
BH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−1.7	−2.0	−7.9±1.8
BH through the middle	23%	+6.4	−6.1	−3.1	−2.7±1.9
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	−6.9	+1.9	−0.7±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	−2.2	−1.1	−2.7±2.8
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	+2.6	−0.9	−6.6±3.0
FH through the middle	1%	+7.7	−3.1	−1.9	+2.7±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +6.3±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1565 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	−1.3	−0.6	−5.3±2.4
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	+2.9	−2.2	+0.5±4.0
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	+3.8	+1.7	+3.7±4.6
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	−0.6	±0.0	+1.8±2.4

Lean FH down the line: +5.5±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (355 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	−1.7	−2.5	−7.1±1.4
BH down the line	21%	−0.2	+1.4	+1.7	+2.9±3.6
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	−3.6	±0.0	−2.6±2.5
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.4	−0.6	−3.8±2.2
BH slice through the middle	3%	−11.3	−0.5	−1.0	−12.7±2.3
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+4.6	+1.7	+7.3±3.5

Lean FH inside-out: +11.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1106 returns charted)

Michael Stich returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.3	−1.1	−1.9	+1.3±2.0
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	+1.1	+1.8	+8.4±3.5
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−1.3	−4.4	−4.0±4.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	−1.0	−3.2	−8.4±2.2
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	+0.5	−2.0	−3.1±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.9±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (949 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
BH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	−2.0	−2.0	−8.2±1.8
BH through the middle	26%	+6.4	−4.8	−2.0	−0.4±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	20%	+0.5	−1.5	+6.7	+5.7±2.6
BH crosscourt	11%	+8.8	−1.0	−1.2	+6.5±3.3
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	±0.0	−4.7	−0.5±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.6±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1006 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	−0.3	−2.8	−6.6±2.4
FH down the line	32%	−1.8	−1.7	−6.2	−9.7±4.4
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	−0.5	+0.6	−0.1±3.8
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−0.4	−1.1	−1.4±1.3
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	+0.9	+1.0	−10.8±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.5±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (279 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−0.1	−1.1	−4.0±1.7
BH crosscourt	21%	+1.0	+1.2	−0.5	+1.7±2.8
BH down the line	19%	−0.2	−2.1	+1.6	−0.7±4.1
BH slice crosscourt	11%	−4.0	±0.0	−2.0	−6.1±2.5
BH slice through the middle	8%	−11.3	−1.2	−0.6	−13.1±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (639 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.