Game plan
Ivan Lendl v Roger Federer
Every number combines what Ivan Lendl does well with what Roger Federer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Ivan Lendl's record against Roger Federer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Ivan | Roger |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.07 ±0.06 better than 75% | +0.04 ±0.02 better than 68% |
| Shot selection | −0.70 ±0.11 better than 5% | +0.18 ±0.03 better than 72% |
| Execution | +0.73 ±0.21 better than 89% | +0.08 ±0.09 better than 72% |
| Points left on the table | 2.96 ±0.11 lower than 22% | 2.74 ±0.04 lower than 35% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Ivan Lendl serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Ivan wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 72% | 69% | 69.0%±2.0 | 62% ▲ |
| Body | 7% | 65% | 63% | 64.1%±4.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 77% | 70% | 72.8%±2.1 | 38% ▼ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.1±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Ivan wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 55% | 73% | 68% | 68.7%±2.1 | 62% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 63% | 61% | 61.3%±5.4 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 39% | 73% | 67% | 68.0%±2.5 | 38% |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.1±0.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Roger Federer serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Ivan | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 76% | 68% | 71.6%±2.0 | 59% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 68% | 62% | 66.9%±3.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 81% | 68% | 75.6%±1.8 | 41% ▼ |
Optimal v Ivan Lendl: ±0.0±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Ivan | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 78% | 69% | 75.5%±1.6 | 69% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 64% | 61% | 62.0%±4.4 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 76% | 70% | 74.0%±2.5 | 31% ▼ |
Optimal v Ivan Lendl: +0.7±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Ivan Lendl returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | +4.3 | −1.4 | −0.9 | +2.0±1.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 30% | +5.5 | +2.3 | −0.8 | +7.1±1.9 |
| FH down the line | 22% | +1.7 | −1.4 | −2.0 | −1.7±2.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 1% | −1.6 | +1.4 | −0.8 | −1.0±1.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −4.2 | +1.0 | −0.4 | −3.6±1.4 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.4±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1908 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 30% | −4.2 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −5.1±0.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 21% | +0.5 | +3.5 | ±0.0 | +4.0±1.3 |
| BH through the middle | 16% | +6.4 | −3.4 | −1.4 | +1.6±1.2 |
| BH slice down the line | 13% | −8.4 | +4.5 | −1.9 | −5.8±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 11% | +8.8 | +3.7 | −0.8 | +11.8±1.7 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +11.7±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (3467 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 40% | −0.2 | +0.6 | −1.5 | −1.2±2.6 |
| FH through the middle | 36% | −3.5 | +1.9 | −1.3 | −2.9±1.7 |
| FH down the line | 23% | −1.8 | +5.8 | −1.4 | +2.6±3.1 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.1±1.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 1% | −6.9 | +0.3 | −1.9 | −8.5±1.3 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (649 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 21% | −2.9 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −4.1±1.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 19% | −4.0 | +3.5 | −2.5 | −3.0±1.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 18% | +1.0 | +0.6 | −0.9 | +0.7±1.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 12% | −11.3 | +3.4 | −1.9 | −9.8±1.6 |
| BH down the line | 7% | −0.2 | −1.9 | −1.0 | −3.2±3.3 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +4.4±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2117 returns charted)
Roger Federer returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Ivan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +0.3 | −1.2 | +3.3±1.0 |
| FH down the line | 25% | +1.7 | −0.4 | +1.4 | +2.7±1.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +4.9±2.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −4.2 | +2.8 | +2.6 | +1.2±1.6 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.9 | +1.5 | −0.9±2.9 |
| BH slice inside-in | 0% | +3.4 | +0.3 | +3.6 | +7.3±2.4 |
Lean BH slice inside-in: +4.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Ivan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 26% | −4.2 | +2.2 | +2.4 | +0.4±0.9 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | −0.8 | −2.2 | +3.5±1.1 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 23% | +0.5 | +3.3 | +3.6 | +7.4±1.2 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +8.8 | −2.0 | +0.5 | +7.3±1.7 |
| BH down the line | 8% | +4.2 | +1.0 | −1.8 | +3.4±2.9 |
| FH inside-out | 0% | +8.6 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +10.5±2.9 |
Lean FH inside-out: +6.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Ivan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | −3.5 | +0.5 | +0.9 | −2.0±1.3 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +1.2 | +3.2 | +2.7±2.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | −0.2 | −1.5 | +1.3 | −0.4±2.7 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −6.9 | +1.5 | +3.8 | −1.6±1.9 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +1.7±1.6 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Ivan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 25% | −4.0 | +1.4 | +2.5 | −0.1±1.1 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | −2.9 | −1.4 | +1.2 | −3.0±0.9 |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | −11.3 | +1.0 | +3.8 | −6.5±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +1.0 | −2.3 | +3.1 | +1.8±1.3 |
| BH down the line | 8% | −0.2 | −0.3 | +3.8 | +3.3±2.8 |
Lean BH down the line: +4.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Ivan Lendl
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH lob to the middle · return +1 | +8.7±4.0 | +9.7 | −1.0 |
| FH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | +4.4±5.7 | +5.8 | −1.4 |
| BH slice to the middle · serve +1 | +4.4±2.0 | +6.2 | −1.8 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | +3.6±2.6 | +5.4 | −1.7 |
| BH slice to the middle · return +1 | +3.2±1.7 | +4.7 | −1.5 |
| BH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.8±4.8 | +5.1 | −2.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smash to their forehand · rally | −9.7±4.4 | −7.7 | −2.0 |
| FH volley to the middle · rally | −7.6±6.3 | −2.9 | −4.7 |
| BH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | −7.2±5.8 | −3.0 | −4.2 |
| BH volley to the middle · rally | −6.9±6.0 | −5.1 | −1.8 |
| Smash to their backhand · rally | −6.8±4.9 | −5.0 | −1.8 |
Roger Federer
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their backhand · return +1 | +9.6±6.9 | +3.9 | +5.7 |
| FH slice to the middle · return | +7.3±2.0 | +2.8 | +4.5 |
| FH volley to their forehand · return +1 | +6.2±8.1 | +0.9 | +5.3 |
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | +6.0±2.3 | +0.8 | +5.2 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | +5.4±3.3 | +0.1 | +5.3 |
| FH slice to their backhand · return | +5.0±3.8 | +0.5 | +4.4 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to the middle · rally | −5.1±5.5 | +2.5 | −7.6 |
| FH volley to the middle · serve +1 | −4.7±4.1 | +1.1 | −5.9 |
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | −4.6±3.5 | +1.4 | −6.0 |
| BH volley to the middle · serve +1 | −4.3±3.5 | +1.2 | −5.5 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | −3.8±2.8 | +0.2 | −4.0 |
Against Roger Federer-like opponents
| Ivan Lendl v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 65.1% | 38.4% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov, Stan Wawrinka, Alexei Popyrin, Dominic Thiem, Tim Van Rijthoven, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Tommy Haas, Ivan Ljubicic, James Blake. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.