RallyIQ

Game plan

James Blake v Roger Federer

Every number combines what James Blake does well with what Roger Federer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

James Blake wins, best of 3 3%90%: 1%–11% · best of 5: 1%
Serve points won 57.1% / 72.0% James / Roger · tour 65.7%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 7%serve 59.0% / 71.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by James Blake's record against Roger Federer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −5.2 on serve, −2.3 on return vs expectation (419 points); head-to-head: −3.5 on serve, −1.4 on return vs expectation (1592 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerJamesRoger
Direction choice+0.08 ±0.07
better than 78%		+0.04 ±0.02
better than 68%
Shot selection+0.03 ±0.12
better than 56%		+0.18 ±0.03
better than 72%
Execution−0.86 ±0.36
better than 30%		+0.08 ±0.09
better than 72%
Points left on the table2.49 ±0.14
lower than 62%		2.74 ±0.04
lower than 35%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

James Blake serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowJames winsv RogerMatchupOptimal
Wide39%68%69%64.3%±3.926% ▼
Body13%64%63%63.5%±5.926% ▲
T49%75%70%70.2%±3.848%

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowJames winsv RogerMatchupOptimal
Wide51%71%68%66.5%±3.964% ▲
Body8%58%61%55.5%±8.10% ▼
T41%70%67%64.7%±4.236% ▼

Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Roger Federer serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowRoger winsv JamesMatchupOptimal
Wide46%76%76%79.0%±3.141% ▼
Body8%68%58%63.3%±6.20% ▼
T46%81%76%82.5%±2.459% ▲

Optimal v James Blake: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowRoger winsv JamesMatchupOptimal
Wide56%78%69%74.9%±2.949% ▼
Body6%64%59%60.1%±7.50% ▼
T38%76%72%75.2%±3.651% ▲

Optimal v James Blake: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

James Blake returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
FH crosscourt38%+5.5+0.1−0.8+4.9±2.6
FH through the middle34%+4.3−2.7−0.9+0.7±1.8
FH down the line22%+1.7−0.6−2.0−0.9±3.0
FH slice through the middle4%−4.2−0.6−0.4−5.2±1.7
FH slice crosscourt1%−4.3+0.1−1.0−5.2±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (587 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
BH slice through the middle25%−4.2+3.0−0.8−2.0±1.5
BH through the middle25%+6.4−2.0−1.4+3.0±1.6
BH slice crosscourt17%+0.5+4.2±0.0+4.7±2.0
BH crosscourt16%+8.8−1.4−0.8+6.6±2.3
BH down the line11%+4.2−0.1−3.0+1.2±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (875 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
FH through the middle33%−3.5+0.9−1.3−3.8±2.1
FH crosscourt31%−0.2+1.6−1.5−0.2±3.3
FH down the line26%−1.8−0.5−1.4−3.7±3.5
FH slice through the middle6%−12.7+1.1−0.1−11.7±1.9
FH slice down the line3%−9.4−2.1−1.3−12.8±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (159 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RogerValue
BH crosscourt35%+1.0−3.3−0.9−3.2±2.0
BH through the middle31%−2.9−0.2−0.7−3.8±1.6
BH down the line17%−0.2+0.5−1.0−0.7±3.6
BH slice crosscourt6%−4.0+0.4−2.5−6.1±2.1
BH slice through the middle4%−11.3+0.4−1.9−12.9±1.8
FH inside-in3%+0.6+0.5−1.5−0.5±3.0

Lean FH inside-in: +2.8±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (545 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Roger Federer returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JamesValue
FH through the middle49%+4.3+0.3±0.0+4.5±1.6
FH down the line25%+1.7−0.4+0.8+2.1±2.7
FH crosscourt17%+5.5−0.6−3.0+1.9±3.0
FH slice through the middle5%−4.2+2.8+1.0−0.4±1.9
FH slice down the line2%−4.3+1.9+0.1−2.2±2.8
BH through the middle0%+6.6+0.6+0.6+7.8±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +4.7±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JamesValue
BH slice through the middle26%−4.2+2.2+0.3−1.6±1.5
BH through the middle25%+6.4−0.8+0.6+6.3±1.6
BH slice crosscourt23%+0.5+3.3+2.9+6.7±2.0
BH crosscourt14%+8.8−2.0−1.2+5.7±2.3
BH down the line8%+4.2+1.0+0.1+5.3±3.4
FH inside-out0%+8.6+0.5+0.8+9.9±3.4

Lean FH inside-out: +6.3±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JamesValue
FH through the middle45%−3.5+0.5+0.2−2.7±1.9
FH down the line28%−1.8+1.2+3.0+2.5±3.2
FH crosscourt20%−0.2−1.5+6.0+4.3±3.4
BH slice through the middle2%−6.9+1.5+1.3−4.1±2.2
BH through the middle1%+0.1+0.3−0.8−0.3±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv JamesValue
BH slice crosscourt25%−4.0+1.4+1.3−1.3±1.7
BH through the middle22%−2.9−1.4−0.8−5.0±1.5
BH slice through the middle16%−11.3+1.0+1.3−9.0±1.8
BH crosscourt14%+1.0−2.3−0.6−1.9±1.9
BH down the line8%−0.2−0.3−1.6−2.1±3.6
FH inside-in4%+0.6+0.6+6.0+7.1±3.5

Lean FH inside-in: +10.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

James Blake

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to their forehand · rally+4.4±4.3+5.9−1.5
BH slice to their backhand · return+4.2±3.0+4.8−0.6
FH to their forehand · return+3.3±4.6+4.3−1.0
BH slice to the middle · return+2.3±2.5+2.2+0.1
BH to the middle · rally+1.3±2.3+2.1−0.8
BH to the middle · return +1+1.1±2.7+0.8+0.3

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH volley to their forehand · serve +1−9.6±6.8−7.7−1.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1−8.4±3.8−3.2−5.1
BH to their forehand · return +1−6.7±5.3−4.0−2.7
FH to their backhand · return +1−5.8±4.3−3.2−2.6
FH to the middle · return +1−5.6±2.4−3.2−2.4

Roger Federer

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their backhand · return +1+5.5±4.4+2.5+2.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1+4.5±3.7+3.0+1.5
BH to their forehand · return+4.3±4.5+1.1+3.2
FH to their backhand · return+3.8±4.0+0.9+2.8
BH to their forehand · return +1+3.5±5.3+1.5+2.0
BH slice to their backhand · return+3.3±2.9+2.3+1.0

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally−4.4±5.4+1.3−5.6
FH to their forehand · rally−2.8±3.5+1.1−3.9
FH to the middle · return +1−1.9±2.3+0.1−2.0
FH to their forehand · return−1.9±4.5−0.9−1.0
BH to the middle · serve +1−1.8±2.7−1.8−0.1

Against Roger Federer-like opponents

James Blake vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–60.9%35.9%
Players most similar to Roger Federer2 58.7%35.2%
Roger Federer (charted head-to-head)9 56.1%31.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov, Stan Wawrinka, Alexei Popyrin, Dominic Thiem, Tim Van Rijthoven, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Tommy Haas, Ivan Ljubicic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head