Game plan

Jannik Sinner v Sergiy Stakhovsky

Every number combines what Jannik Sinner does well with what Sergiy Stakhovsky allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jannik Sinner wins, best of 3 99%90%: 95%–100% · best of 5: 100%

Serve points won 72.7% / 53.9% Jannik / Sergiy · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 99%serve 72.9% / 54.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jannik Sinner's record against Sergiy Stakhovsky's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.7 on serve, +1.9 on return vs expectation (1688 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jannik	Sergiy
Direction choice	−0.07 ±0.02 better than 40%	+0.03 ±0.12 better than 65%
Shot selection	+0.50 ±0.04 better than 93%	−0.26 ±0.23 better than 27%
Execution	+0.25 ±0.16 better than 78%	−1.63 ±0.76 better than 8%
Points left on the table	2.38 ±0.04 lower than 75%	3.01 ±0.13 lower than 19%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jannik Sinner serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jannik wins	v Sergiy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	78%	80%	84.0%±4.0	44% ▼
Body	11%	67%	69%	72.7%±8.5	0% ▼
T	43%	78%	81%	84.2%±3.9	56% ▲

Optimal v Sergiy Stakhovsky: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jannik wins	v Sergiy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	76%	77%	80.0%±4.5	71% ▲
Body	7%	68%	66%	70.6%±10.1	0% ▼
T	35%	76%	76%	79.5%±4.7	29% ▼

Optimal v Sergiy Stakhovsky: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sergiy Stakhovsky serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sergiy wins	v Jannik	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	73%	68%	67.8%±5.8	46%
Body	14%	60%	58%	54.4%±8.8	1% ▼
T	40%	80%	72%	78.0%±5.3	53% ▲

Optimal v Jannik Sinner: +1.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +8.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sergiy wins	v Jannik	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	72%	69%	68.2%±5.6	63% ▲
Body	8%	62%	59%	58.8%±10.7	0% ▼
T	41%	73%	66%	66.9%±6.3	37% ▼

Optimal v Jannik Sinner: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jannik Sinner returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergiy	Value
FH through the middle	57%	+4.3	+1.3	+0.5	+6.1±2.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.2	−0.6	+5.2±3.3
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−0.1	−1.9	−0.3±3.5
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	−4.2	±0.0	−8.5±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−4.3	−1.8	+1.1	−5.0±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +1.7±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (5521 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergiy	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.1	−2.6	+3.9±2.0
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	−0.6	+0.7	+8.9±2.7
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+0.3	−3.3	+1.2±3.6
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−6.9	−0.3	−11.5±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−7.2	−0.8	−7.5±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (5508 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergiy	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.3	−3.3±2.3
FH crosscourt	24%	−0.2	+0.5	+1.6	+1.9±3.7
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	−1.3	−5.5	−8.6±3.9
BH through the middle	0%	+0.1	+0.6	−0.1	+0.6±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1459 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sergiy	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.9	+0.6	−0.1	−2.4±1.8
BH crosscourt	43%	+1.0	−0.4	−0.5	+0.2±2.4
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+1.3	−2.7	−1.5±4.4
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	±0.0	−0.3	−3.2±2.4
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	+0.2	+1.6	+2.3±4.4

Lean FH inside-in: +3.6±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (3318 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Sergiy Stakhovsky returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−1.8	−1.6	+0.8±2.1
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	−2.6	−1.6	+1.3±3.4
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	+0.9	−4.4	−1.8±3.5
FH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−1.0	−1.1	−6.3±1.8
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	+1.5	−5.4	−8.2±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (242 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
BH slice through the middle	43%	−4.2	−0.9	−3.3	−8.4±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	29%	+0.5	−0.3	−4.0	−3.8±2.4
BH through the middle	14%	+6.4	−1.6	−0.8	+4.1±2.1
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	+0.4	−7.5	−15.5±2.8
BH crosscourt	5%	+8.8	−0.5	−1.2	+7.1±2.2

Lean BH through the middle: +8.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (245 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
FH through the middle	67%	−3.5	+0.4	−1.0	−4.0±2.1
FH crosscourt	33%	−0.2	−2.7	−1.6	−4.5±3.0

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (45 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jannik	Value
BH slice crosscourt	29%	−4.0	−0.1	−5.8	−9.9±2.5
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	+0.8	−0.5	−2.7±1.9
BH crosscourt	19%	+1.0	+1.4	−2.0	+0.4±2.3
BH slice through the middle	14%	−11.3	−0.6	−4.1	−16.0±2.3
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	−2.5	−1.3	−4.0±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (133 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Jannik Sinner

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.8±3.6	+0.9	+3.9
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.1±3.5	+1.3	+2.9
FH to their forehand · return	+3.8±4.8	+1.6	+2.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.2±3.2	+1.3	+1.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.6±3.7	+1.3	+1.3
FH to the middle · return	+2.4±2.7	+0.7	+1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return	−7.7±3.2	−7.3	−0.3
BH slice to the middle · return	−7.2±2.5	−6.1	−1.1
BH to their forehand · return	−3.7±5.0	+1.7	−5.5
FH to their backhand · return	−3.3±4.2	+0.2	−3.5
BH to the middle · return	−3.2±2.5	+0.4	−3.6

Sergiy Stakhovsky

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.9±3.6	+4.8	−0.9
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+1.5±7.1	−1.3	+2.7
FH to the middle · rally	+1.2±2.5	+1.9	−0.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+0.2±2.8	+0.5	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±3.8	±0.0	−0.4
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	−0.6±3.2	−0.6	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−7.9±4.3	−4.0	−4.0
FH to their forehand · return	−7.7±4.6	−4.8	−2.8
FH to their backhand · return	−7.1±4.1	−4.4	−2.7
BH slice to the middle · rally	−5.1±2.5	−3.4	−1.7
BH to their forehand · rally	−5.0±4.9	−1.8	−3.2

Against Sergiy Stakhovsky-like opponents

Jannik Sinner v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	68.1%	40.7%
Players most similar to Sergiy Stakhovsky	8	69.0%	43.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Daniel Altmaier, Richard Gasquet, Pierre Hugues Herbert, Gregoire Barrere, Roger Federer, Nicolas Mahut, Mischa Zverev, Ivan Ljubicic, Andrei Pavel, Mark Philippoussis. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.