Game plan

Marat Safin v Alex De Minaur

Every number combines what Marat Safin does well with what Alex De Minaur allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marat Safin wins, best of 3 55%90%: 32%–77% · best of 5: 57%

Serve points won 62.0% / 61.0% Marat / Alex · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 55%serve 62.0% / 61.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marat Safin's record against Alex De Minaur's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marat	Alex
Direction choice	+0.12 ±0.04 better than 84%	−0.25 ±0.03 better than 9%
Shot selection	−0.07 ±0.10 better than 44%	+0.19 ±0.07 better than 72%
Execution	−0.19 ±0.22 better than 58%	+0.34 ±0.21 better than 80%
Points left on the table	2.39 ±0.07 lower than 74%	2.56 ±0.06 lower than 54%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marat Safin serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marat wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	76%	70%	73.3%±3.0	30% ▼
Body	7%	67%	58%	61.2%±6.4	0% ▼
T	57%	77%	74%	76.8%±2.5	70% ▲

Optimal v Alex De Minaur: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marat wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	74%	72%	73.2%±2.9	66% ▲
Body	6%	73%	60%	70.3%±6.6	0% ▼
T	41%	75%	69%	72.1%±3.1	34% ▼

Optimal v Alex De Minaur: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alex De Minaur serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Marat	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	72%	72%	71.3%±2.8	55% ▲
Body	17%	64%	64%	64.3%±5.3	3% ▼
T	41%	75%	75%	75.0%±2.9	42%

Optimal v Marat Safin: +0.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Marat	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	73%	71%	71.4%±3.0	57% ▲
Body	17%	62%	65%	64.3%±5.9	4% ▼
T	39%	68%	73%	68.9%±3.3	39%

Optimal v Marat Safin: +0.2±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marat Safin returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−1.5	+1.6	+4.4±1.3
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+1.4	−0.2	+2.8±2.7
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	−2.1	−1.2	+2.2±2.7
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	+0.7	−0.5	−4.0±2.0
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−0.1	−2.0	−6.4±3.2
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	−0.1	+1.1	+7.6±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +4.8±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1806 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	−0.6	+0.4	+8.6±1.9
BH through the middle	34%	+6.4	−0.5	+1.1	+7.0±1.3
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−3.7	+1.2	−6.7±1.8
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.1	+0.3	+4.6±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−5.2	−2.0	−6.6±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1839 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.6	+0.2	−1.7±1.7
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	±0.0	−2.1	−2.3±3.4
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	−0.8	+0.6	−2.0±3.8
BH inside-in	2%	+2.5	−2.6	+0.4	+0.3±2.4
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.0	+0.8	+2.0±1.3

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (678 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH crosscourt	49%	+1.0	−0.4	+0.4	+1.0±1.5
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−0.6	+0.8	−2.7±1.2
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.7	−0.1	+1.5±3.8
BH slice through the middle	1%	−11.3	−0.4	−0.2	−11.9±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	0%	−4.0	+0.4	±0.0	−3.6±2.2

Lean BH down the line: +1.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1511 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Alex De Minaur returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.3	+2.5	−1.6	+5.1±1.4
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	+4.4	−4.0	+2.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	−0.5	−3.1	+2.0±3.2
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	+0.6	−3.2±1.9
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−1.9	+0.5	−5.7±3.2

Lean FH through the middle: +2.3±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2397 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
BH through the middle	50%	+6.4	+2.5	−1.7	+7.1±1.3
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+0.8	−3.5	+6.1±2.2
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−2.2	−3.0	−1.0±3.7
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−3.3	+1.0	−6.5±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−2.6	±0.0	−2.1±2.6

Lean BH through the middle: +2.8±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2394 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
FH through the middle	56%	−3.5	+1.5	+0.1	−1.9±1.8
FH down the line	30%	−1.8	+0.6	−0.6	−1.8±3.6
FH crosscourt	13%	−0.2	+0.2	+0.4	+0.4±3.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	+0.1	+3.1	−9.5±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (654 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+1.3	+0.3	−1.3±1.2
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	−0.1	−0.5	+0.4±1.8
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+0.8	−2.4	−1.8±4.2
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.6	+0.1	−3.4±2.0
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	−0.5	−0.6	−0.1±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.3±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1588 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Marat Safin

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to the middle · rally	+6.9±5.9	+2.4	+4.5
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.3±2.8	+0.3	+2.0
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.1±1.3	+0.7	+1.4
FH to the middle · serve +1	+1.2±1.5	±0.0	+1.1
FH to the middle · return	+0.8±1.0	−0.4	+1.2
BH volley to the middle · rally	+0.8±5.3	+5.4	−4.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−10.9±4.3	−6.2	−4.7
BH lob to their backhand · rally	−8.4±4.4	−3.7	−4.7
BH slice to their forehand · return	−5.9±3.5	−2.8	−3.1
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−5.6±4.5	−0.8	−4.8
BH slice to their backhand · return	−5.3±2.5	−4.0	−1.4

Alex De Minaur

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+7.1±4.8	+4.3	+2.8
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+7.0±5.0	+3.5	+3.5
BH slice to the middle · rally	+2.4±1.3	+0.6	+1.7
FH slice to their forehand · rally	+2.3±3.8	+1.6	+0.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.2±2.1	+2.2	±0.0
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.2±1.4	+1.1	+1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
Smash to their forehand · rally	−6.8±4.2	−3.6	−3.2
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−4.4±5.2	−5.2	+0.7
BH to their forehand · return	−3.6±2.8	−0.4	−3.2
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.9±2.2	−0.6	−2.3
FH slice to their backhand · return	−2.0±3.1	−2.5	+0.5

Against Alex De Minaur-like opponents

Marat Safin v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.2%	36.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Jenson Brooksby, Miomir Kecmanovic, Alexandre Muller, Jordan Thompson, Taro Daniel, Ilya Ivashka, Andreas Seppi, Viktor Troicki, Janko Tipsarevic, Hyeon Chung. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.