Game plan

Matteo Berrettini v Casper Ruud

Every number combines what Matteo Berrettini does well with what Casper Ruud allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Matteo Berrettini wins, best of 3 51%90%: 35%–67% · best of 5: 51%

Serve points won 70.8% / 70.6% Matteo / Casper · tour 64.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 46%serve 69.8% / 70.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Matteo Berrettini's record against Casper Ruud's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.7 on serve, +1.0 on return vs expectation (1819 points); head-to-head: +0.1 on serve, −1.3 on return vs expectation (904 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Matteo	Casper
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.06 better than 51%	−0.03 ±0.05 better than 49%
Shot selection	−0.61 ±0.09 better than 8%	−0.02 ±0.09 better than 51%
Execution	+0.03 ±0.36 better than 70%	+0.87 ±0.19 better than 93%
Points left on the table	2.71 ±0.09 lower than 39%	2.68 ±0.08 lower than 40%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Matteo Berrettini −1.25, Casper Ruud −0.15. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Matteo Berrettini serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Matteo wins	v Casper	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	79%	73%	78.6%±2.4	59% ▲
Body	6%	68%	63%	67.2%±6.5	0% ▼
T	48%	80%	74%	79.2%±2.4	41% ▼

Optimal v Casper Ruud: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Matteo wins	v Casper	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	79%	71%	76.9%±2.5	44% ▼
Body	7%	68%	62%	66.9%±6.4	0% ▼
T	43%	76%	73%	76.2%±2.8	56% ▲

Optimal v Casper Ruud: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Casper Ruud serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Casper wins	v Matteo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	75%	76%	78.1%±2.4	61% ▲
Body	9%	64%	65%	65.7%±5.7	0% ▼
T	43%	78%	75%	77.9%±2.4	39% ▼

Optimal v Matteo Berrettini: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Casper wins	v Matteo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	71%	74%	72.5%±2.7	46% ▼
Body	7%	60%	65%	62.8%±6.4	0% ▼
T	41%	72%	71%	70.3%±3.1	54% ▲

Optimal v Matteo Berrettini: +0.7±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Matteo Berrettini returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Casper	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	−0.5	+0.8	+4.5±1.4
FH slice through the middle	22%	−4.2	+1.2	−1.0	−4.0±1.7
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	−4.0	−3.0	−5.2±3.1
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	−1.3	+2.7	+6.9±3.2
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+2.1	−0.3	−2.5±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1460 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Casper	Value
BH through the middle	31%	+6.4	+0.7	+0.7	+7.8±1.3
BH slice through the middle	29%	−4.2	−0.5	−1.0	−5.7±1.5
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	+0.1	−0.3	+8.6±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	11%	+0.5	−1.5	−1.1	−2.1±2.4
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+1.7	−0.4	+5.5±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.7±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1842 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Casper	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	−1.8	+0.4	−4.8±2.0
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	−1.3	−1.8	−4.9±4.1
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	−3.0	−4.0	−7.2±3.9
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+1.1	−0.7	−12.3±2.2
FH slice down the line	2%	−9.4	±0.0	−0.5	−9.9±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.0±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (389 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Casper	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	+0.2	±0.0	−2.7±1.2
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	−1.2	−1.0	−1.1±1.9
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	±0.0	+3.4	+3.2±3.9
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.2	+0.4	−2.2±1.9
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−3.7	−4.0	−7.1±3.9

Lean BH down the line: +5.0±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1173 returns charted)

Casper Ruud returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.3	+0.7	−0.2	+4.8±1.5
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−0.7	+0.7	−4.2±1.4
FH down the line	13%	+1.7	+1.2	−1.2	+1.7±3.2
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	−1.3	+1.0	+5.2±3.2
FH slice down the line	8%	−4.3	+1.5	+1.0	−1.8±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2447 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+1.2	+1.0	+8.7±1.4
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	+2.4	+1.5	+12.7±2.0
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.7	−1.3	−7.3±1.8
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+3.2	−4.0	+3.4±3.9
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−0.7	−2.8	−3.0±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (3085 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	+1.8	−0.8	−2.5±1.8
FH crosscourt	30%	−0.2	+1.1	−0.5	+0.4±3.6
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	+0.8	±0.0	−0.9±4.0
FH slice through the middle	5%	−12.7	+0.2	−1.3	−13.8±2.2
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.3	−0.1	+0.3±1.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (709 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Matteo	Value
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.0	+0.4	−1.6	−0.2±1.7
BH through the middle	25%	−2.9	−1.2	−0.1	−4.2±1.4
FH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.2	−0.8	−3.8±1.5
FH inside-in	10%	+0.6	+2.1	−0.5	+2.1±3.6
FH inside-out	9%	+1.0	−1.6	±0.0	−0.6±2.9

Lean FH inside-in: +3.9±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2232 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.