Game plan

Max Mirnyi v Stefan Edberg

Every number combines what Max Mirnyi does well with what Stefan Edberg allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Max Mirnyi wins, best of 3 18%90%: 8%–34% · best of 5: 12%

Serve points won 63.1% / 70.8% Max / Stefan · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 18%serve 63.1% / 70.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Max Mirnyi's record against Stefan Edberg's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Max	Stefan
Direction choice	−0.09 ±0.21 better than 32%	+0.16 ±0.05 better than 89%
Shot selection	+1.40 ±0.23 better than 100%	+0.79 ±0.06 better than 98%
Execution	−1.00 ±0.99 better than 25%	−0.62 ±0.21 better than 40%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Max Mirnyi serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Max wins	v Stefan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	82%	69%	79.0%±6.1	54% ▲
Body	12%	64%	62%	62.3%±10.3	0% ▼
T	48%	73%	74%	72.2%±6.5	46% ▼

Optimal v Stefan Edberg: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Max wins	v Stefan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	78%	69%	74.5%±6.2	65% ▲
Body	12%	66%	63%	65.7%±10.4	0% ▼
T	36%	73%	70%	71.1%±7.5	35%

Optimal v Stefan Edberg: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Stefan Edberg serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Stefan wins	v Max	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	75%	81%	82.4%±5.4	55% ▲
Body	20%	69%	69%	73.7%±10.4	7% ▼
T	38%	72%	84%	81.4%±6.0	38%

Optimal v Max Mirnyi: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Stefan wins	v Max	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	72%	73%	72.2%±6.4	68% ▲
Body	15%	65%	63%	64.8%±12.9	2% ▼
T	30%	70%	72%	70.5%±7.1	30%

Optimal v Max Mirnyi: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Max Mirnyi returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.3	−0.5	−2.2	+1.5±2.3
FH down the line	32%	+1.7	+1.2	+3.0	+5.9±3.5
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	−5.4	+0.5	+0.6±3.4
FH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	+1.1	−0.2	−3.3±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +3.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (140 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
BH slice through the middle	32%	−4.2	−1.7	−1.4	−7.3±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	27%	+0.5	+4.0	+0.9	+5.4±2.5
BH through the middle	18%	+6.4	−1.8	−4.0	+0.7±2.0
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	−1.5	+4.9	−5.0±2.8
BH crosscourt	6%	+8.8	+1.4	+1.4	+11.7±2.0

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +5.9±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (154 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
BH down the line	30%	−0.2	−1.9	−1.3	−3.5±3.9
BH through the middle	23%	−2.9	−4.5	−3.0	−10.4±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	21%	−4.0	+0.9	+1.4	−1.7±2.2
BH slice through the middle	12%	−11.3	−0.4	+1.3	−10.4±2.0
BH crosscourt	8%	+1.0	−3.7	+3.7	+1.1±1.9

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +3.9±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (99 returns charted)

Stefan Edberg returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Max	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	+0.4	−2.5	+2.2±2.3
FH down the line	31%	+1.7	+5.4	−1.8	+5.3±3.5
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+2.6	−1.1	+7.0±3.4
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	+0.8	−1.0	−1.9±2.2
FH slice through the middle	1%	−4.2	−0.5	±0.0	−4.7±1.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (3660 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Max	Value
BH slice through the middle	32%	−4.2	+1.2	−1.0	−4.0±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	25%	+0.5	+5.2	+0.9	+6.7±2.1
BH through the middle	14%	+6.4	−1.4	−1.5	+3.6±2.3
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	+5.0	+0.7	−2.8±2.7
BH crosscourt	9%	+8.8	+1.1	−2.0	+7.9±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (4178 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Max	Value
FH down the line	34%	−1.8	+5.6	+1.3	+5.1±3.9
FH through the middle	32%	−3.5	−0.4	−0.6	−4.5±2.3
FH crosscourt	28%	−0.2	+2.2	+3.4	+5.4±3.5
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.9	+1.3	−0.4	−6.1±1.7
BH slice inside-in	2%	−2.1	+0.2	−1.8	−3.7±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.8±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1191 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Max	Value
BH slice crosscourt	29%	−4.0	+2.5	−1.8	−3.4±1.6
BH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.4	−1.7	−4.9±2.1
BH crosscourt	13%	+1.0	−0.8	+0.9	+1.1±2.8
BH slice through the middle	12%	−11.3	+2.8	−0.4	−8.9±1.5
BH slice down the line	12%	−9.3	+4.3	+4.6	−0.4±3.0
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	+2.7	+4.2	+6.7±4.2

Lean BH down the line: +8.7±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (2884 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Max Mirnyi

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return	+6.2±3.2	+4.3	+2.0
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+1.6±5.3	+1.0	+0.6
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	−1.7±6.4	+4.3	−6.0
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.9±2.7	−2.0	−0.9
FH to the middle · return	−5.1±3.2	−2.4	−2.7
BH to the middle · return	−9.7±2.9	−6.6	−3.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−9.7±2.9	−6.6	−3.2
FH to the middle · return	−5.1±3.2	−2.4	−2.7
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.9±2.7	−2.0	−0.9
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	−1.7±6.4	+4.3	−6.0
BH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+1.6±5.3	+1.0	+0.6

Stefan Edberg

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+10.5±4.8	+1.4	+9.0
BH to their forehand · return	+4.9±5.2	−0.6	+5.5
FH to their backhand · return	+4.3±4.4	+4.3	±0.0
BH to their backhand · return	+0.5±3.4	+1.6	−1.0
FH to the middle · return	−2.0±2.9	+0.8	−2.7
BH to the middle · return	−4.5±2.5	−2.0	−2.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.3±5.3	−3.4	−1.9
BH to the middle · return	−4.5±2.5	−2.0	−2.5
FH to the middle · return	−2.0±2.9	+0.8	−2.7
BH to their backhand · return	+0.5±3.4	+1.6	−1.0
FH to their backhand · return	+4.3±4.4	+4.3	±0.0

Against Stefan Edberg-like opponents

Max Mirnyi v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	65.8%	27.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Tim Henman, Greg Rusedski, Mark Philippoussis, Patrick Rafter, Boris Becker, Michael Stich, David Wheaton, John Mcenroe, Pat Cash. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.