RallyIQ

Game plan

Rafael Nadal v Mikhail Youzhny

Every number combines what Rafael Nadal does well with what Mikhail Youzhny allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Rafael Nadal wins, best of 3 89%90%: 73%–96% · best of 5: 93%
Serve points won 70.6% / 60.7% Rafael / Mikhail · tour 65.7%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 89%serve 70.7% / 60.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Rafael Nadal's record against Mikhail Youzhny's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.5 on serve, +1.1 on return vs expectation (1772 points); head-to-head: −1.5 on serve, −2.8 on return vs expectation (816 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerRafaelMikhail
Direction choice+0.02 ±0.03
better than 62%		+0.03 ±0.06
better than 67%
Shot selection+0.38 ±0.05
better than 85%		−1.03 ±0.16
better than 1%
Execution+1.32 ±0.10
better than 99%		+0.33 ±0.37
better than 79%
Points left on the table2.66 ±0.04
lower than 43%		2.57 ±0.10
lower than 52%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Rafael Nadal serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowRafael winsv MikhailMatchupOptimal
Wide31%75%70%71.8%±3.431%
Body18%64%70%71.2%±7.25% ▼
T51%69%79%74.2%±3.564% ▲

Optimal v Mikhail Youzhny: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowRafael winsv MikhailMatchupOptimal
Wide54%71%75%73.8%±3.267% ▲
Body18%67%60%64.1%±8.75% ▼
T28%75%71%74.6%±3.628%

Optimal v Mikhail Youzhny: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Mikhail Youzhny serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowMikhail winsv RafaelMatchupOptimal
Wide43%71%66%64.2%±3.756% ▲
Body5%53%58%47.4%±8.30% ▼
T52%69%74%68.0%±3.444% ▼

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowMikhail winsv RafaelMatchupOptimal
Wide60%67%71%65.7%±3.451% ▼
Body5%62%57%55.8%±8.80% ▼
T36%69%66%62.6%±4.249% ▲

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Rafael Nadal returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv MikhailValue
FH through the middle46%+4.3+0.4+0.9+5.5±1.5
FH crosscourt31%+5.5+2.4−1.5+6.4±2.7
FH down the line16%+1.7−0.8−1.4−0.6±3.2
FH slice through the middle3%−4.2+0.1+0.8−3.3±2.1
FH slice crosscourt2%−4.3+7.5−1.8+1.4±2.6
BH through the middle0%+6.6+0.4+2.3+9.3±2.3

Lean BH through the middle: +4.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv MikhailValue
BH through the middle38%+6.4−0.2+2.3+8.5±1.4
BH crosscourt19%+8.8−1.2+3.6+11.2±2.6
BH slice through the middle17%−4.2+2.1+3.4+1.3±1.5
BH down the line15%+4.2+3.3−0.8+6.8±2.9
BH slice down the line7%−8.4+5.7+2.2−0.5±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv MikhailValue
FH crosscourt48%−0.2+0.7−1.7−1.2±3.3
FH through the middle33%−3.5−2.6+0.5−5.6±2.1
FH down the line17%−1.8+3.8+0.8+2.9±3.9
BH inside-out1%+0.9+0.3+0.4+1.6±3.4
FH slice through the middle1%−12.7−0.2+0.8−12.1±1.9

Lean FH down the line: +5.0±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv MikhailValue
BH through the middle35%−2.9+2.0+1.0+0.1±1.3
BH crosscourt28%+1.0−1.0−2.8−2.8±2.2
BH down the line17%−0.2+1.8+0.4+2.0±3.0
FH through the middle9%−2.9+1.2+0.5−1.2±1.8
FH inside-in8%+0.6+1.5−1.7+0.4±3.6

Lean BH down the line: +2.5±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Mikhail Youzhny returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
FH through the middle44%+4.3+0.5−0.9+3.9±1.6
FH down the line25%+1.7+3.6+0.1+5.4±3.0
FH crosscourt18%+5.5−1.7+1.7+5.5±3.0
FH slice through the middle7%−4.2+0.9±0.0−3.3±2.0
FH slice down the line4%−4.3+1.1−3.6−6.8±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (741 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
BH slice through the middle43%−4.2+2.6+1.9+0.3±1.4
BH slice crosscourt28%+0.5+2.0+3.6+6.1±2.1
BH slice down the line10%−8.4−1.0−3.0−12.4±2.8
BH through the middle9%+6.4−4.3+0.7+2.8±2.0
BH down the line5%+4.2−6.0−1.0−2.8±3.4
BH crosscourt4%+8.8−2.6+4.3+10.5±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +9.4±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (778 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
FH through the middle42%−3.5+2.1−0.4−1.8±2.1
FH down the line40%−1.8−0.6+0.4−2.0±3.7
FH crosscourt19%−0.2−1.4−0.7−2.4±3.3

Lean FH through the middle: +0.1±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (187 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
BH slice crosscourt26%−4.0+0.4−2.6−6.2±2.4
BH through the middle23%−2.9−1.0+0.1−3.8±1.7
BH crosscourt19%+1.0−0.9−0.2−0.1±2.3
BH down the line14%−0.2+0.1−1.3−1.4±3.7
BH slice through the middle10%−11.3−0.1−0.9−12.2±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (674 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Rafael Nadal

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH volley to their backhand · rally+19.0±7.4+10.3+8.6
BH volley to their forehand · rally+14.0±6.6+16.7−2.7
BH slice to the middle · return+7.2±2.6+3.0+4.2
BH slice to their backhand · return+7.2±3.6+0.9+6.3
BH to the middle · return+6.2±2.4+1.1+5.0
BH to the middle · return +1+4.3±3.1+2.5+1.8

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally−4.2±2.7−1.0−3.1
BH slice to their backhand · return +1−3.7±3.4−0.9−2.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1−3.1±3.9±0.0−3.2
BH to their backhand · return +1−2.7±4.5+0.3−3.0
FH volley to their forehand · rally−2.3±7.4−1.0−1.3

Mikhail Youzhny

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally+13.8±7.1+3.3+10.5
BH slice to the middle · return+8.1±2.5+2.3+5.9
BH slice to their forehand · return+4.9±4.5+0.2+4.6
FH to the middle · serve +1+3.3±3.1+3.7−0.5
FH to their backhand · return +1+3.2±4.4+2.0+1.3
FH slice to the middle · return+3.1±2.7+2.2+0.9

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH to their backhand · rally−5.8±3.0−2.6−3.2
FH to the middle · return +1−4.5±3.4−2.1−2.5
FH volley to their forehand · rally−4.5±7.3+4.7−9.2
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1−4.2±3.9−0.5−3.6
FH to their forehand · rally−3.9±3.5−1.5−2.5

Against Mikhail Youzhny-like opponents

Rafael Nadal vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–66.0%40.1%
Players most similar to Mikhail Youzhny12 68.1%43.1%
Mikhail Youzhny (charted head-to-head)5 65.7%39.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Daniel Altmaier, Bernard Tomic, Benjamin Bonzi, Richard Gasquet, Damir Dzumhur, Mikhail Kukushkin, Denis Kudla, Jarkko Nieminen, David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head