RallyIQ

Game plan

Rafael Nadal v Nikolay Davydenko

Every number combines what Rafael Nadal does well with what Nikolay Davydenko allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Rafael Nadal wins, best of 3 58%90%: 32%–81% · best of 5: 60%
Serve points won 60.4% / 58.8% Rafael / Nikolay · tour 63.4%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 69%serve 63.1% / 59.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Rafael Nadal's record against Nikolay Davydenko's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.9 on serve, +0.1 on return vs expectation (12273 points); head-to-head: −4.8 on serve, +1.3 on return vs expectation (986 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

CareerRafaelNikolay
Direction choice+0.02 ±0.03
better than 62%		−0.01 ±0.06
better than 56%
Shot selection+0.38 ±0.05
better than 85%		+0.02 ±0.07
better than 54%
Execution+1.32 ±0.10
better than 99%		+0.14 ±0.29
better than 74%
Points left on the table2.66 ±0.04
lower than 43%		2.24 ±0.09
lower than 89%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Rafael Nadal serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowRafael winsv NikolayMatchupOptimal
Wide31%75%72%73.5%±2.744% ▲
Body18%64%62%63.5%±5.65% ▼
T51%69%73%66.7%±3.051%

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: +0.5±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowRafael winsv NikolayMatchupOptimal
Wide54%71%69%67.3%±3.041% ▼
Body18%67%61%64.5%±6.618%
T28%75%69%71.9%±3.141% ▲

Optimal v Nikolay Davydenko: ±0.0±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Nikolay Davydenko serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowNikolay winsv RafaelMatchupOptimal
Wide38%70%66%63.0%±3.136% ▼
Body12%60%58%54.7%±5.30% ▼
T51%71%74%70.0%±2.764% ▲

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.8±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowNikolay winsv RafaelMatchupOptimal
Wide50%67%71%65.1%±2.963% ▲
Body10%66%57%59.8%±5.810%
T40%68%66%62.4%±3.427% ▼

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Rafael Nadal returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NikolayValue
FH through the middle46%+4.3+0.4+0.4+5.0±1.3
FH crosscourt31%+5.5+2.4−1.0+6.9±2.4
FH down the line16%+1.7−0.8−0.7+0.2±2.7
FH slice through the middle3%−4.2+0.1+2.2−1.9±2.1
FH slice crosscourt2%−4.3+7.5−0.3+2.8±2.6
BH through the middle0%+6.6+0.4+2.6+9.6±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +5.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NikolayValue
BH through the middle38%+6.4−0.2+2.6+8.8±1.2
BH crosscourt19%+8.8−1.2+1.2+8.9±2.2
BH slice through the middle17%−4.2+2.1+2.6+0.5±1.3
BH down the line15%+4.2+3.3+0.3+7.9±2.4
BH slice down the line7%−8.4+5.7+4.8+2.1±2.2
FH through the middle1%+7.7+2.5+0.4+10.6±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +4.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NikolayValue
FH crosscourt48%−0.2+0.7−0.1+0.3±3.0
FH through the middle33%−3.5−2.6+0.2−5.9±1.8
FH down the line17%−1.8+3.8−1.9+0.1±3.5
BH inside-out1%+0.9+0.3±0.0+1.1±3.4
FH slice through the middle1%−12.7−0.2+0.4−12.5±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.2±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv NikolayValue
BH through the middle35%−2.9+2.0+1.6+0.7±1.3
BH crosscourt28%+1.0−1.0+1.5+1.5±2.1
BH down the line17%−0.2+1.8±0.0+1.5±3.0
FH through the middle9%−2.9+1.2+0.2−1.4±1.6
FH inside-in8%+0.6+1.5−0.1+2.0±3.3

Lean FH inside-in: +1.1±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Nikolay Davydenko returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
FH through the middle43%+4.3±0.0−0.9+3.4±1.3
FH down the line23%+1.7−1.1+0.1+0.7±2.7
FH crosscourt19%+5.5−2.3+1.7+4.9±2.5
FH slice through the middle8%−4.2−1.2±0.0−5.4±1.9
FH slice down the line3%−4.3−0.1−3.6−8.0±3.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.1±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1320 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
BH through the middle43%+6.4+0.5+0.7+7.5±1.2
BH crosscourt21%+8.8−0.6+4.3+12.5±2.0
BH down the line15%+4.2+3.7−1.0+6.9±2.8
BH slice through the middle11%−4.2−1.4+1.9−3.7±1.7
BH slice crosscourt5%+0.5−2.2+3.6+1.9±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1258 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
FH through the middle46%−3.5+1.9−0.4−2.1±1.8
FH crosscourt26%−0.2−0.2−0.7−1.1±3.1
FH down the line25%−1.8−2.6+0.4−3.9±3.5
BH through the middle3%+0.1−0.1+0.1+0.1±1.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv RafaelValue
BH through the middle47%−2.9+0.9+0.1−1.9±1.2
BH crosscourt36%+1.0+0.5−0.2+1.3±1.7
BH down the line17%−0.2−0.7−1.3−2.3±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.1±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1069 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Rafael Nadal

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally+7.1±5.0+11.2−4.1
BH volley to their backhand · rally+6.5±4.6+2.3+4.2
BH slice to their forehand · return +1+6.1±3.0+4.8+1.3
BH slice to the middle · return+5.3±1.2+3.1+2.1
FH volley to their backhand · rally+5.1±4.8+9.1−3.9
BH to the middle · return+4.8±0.9+1.6+3.2

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH slice to their forehand · rally−5.2±3.5−4.6−0.6
FH to their forehand · return−2.5±2.2−1.2−1.3
BH slice to their backhand · return +1−2.0±1.7−0.9−1.1
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1−1.8±2.5−1.1−0.6
FH to their forehand · return +1−1.6±1.9+0.9−2.4

Nikolay Davydenko

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally+6.4±4.6−0.7+7.1
FH volley to their backhand · rally+5.5±4.5+2.0+3.5
BH to their forehand · return+4.4±2.2+1.3+3.1
BH to the middle · return +1+2.1±1.3+1.3+0.8
BH to the middle · return+2.1±0.8±0.0+2.0
Smash to their backhand · rally+1.9±4.1+1.1+0.8

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
BH volley to their backhand · rally−8.0±4.4−2.8−5.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally−7.0±1.7−3.3−3.8
FH slice to the middle · rally−5.9±2.4−3.9−2.0
BH slice to their backhand · return +1−5.5±2.2−2.4−3.1
FH volley to their forehand · rally−5.2±4.5+1.8−7.0

Against Nikolay Davydenko-like opponents

Rafael Nadal vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–66.0%40.1%
Players most similar to Nikolay Davydenko73 61.6%38.0%
Nikolay Davydenko (charted head-to-head)6 58.3%41.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Borna Coric, Fernando Verdasco, Denis Istomin, Viktor Troicki, David Nalbandian, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head