Game plan
Rafael Nadal v Tim Henman
Every number combines what Rafael Nadal does well with what Tim Henman allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Rafael Nadal's record against Tim Henman's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.2 on serve, −6.9 on return vs expectation (613 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Rafael | Tim |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.02 ±0.03 better than 62% | +0.09 ±0.11 better than 80% |
| Shot selection | +0.38 ±0.05 better than 85% | +0.03 ±0.21 better than 56% |
| Execution | +1.32 ±0.10 better than 99% | −1.47 ±0.39 better than 10% |
| Points left on the table | 2.66 ±0.04 lower than 43% | 3.76 ±0.27 lower than 5% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Rafael Nadal serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Rafael wins | v Tim | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 31% | 75% | 76% | 77.7%±3.2 | 44% ▲ |
| Body | 18% | 64% | 65% | 66.3%±6.4 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 51% | 69% | 79% | 74.4%±3.6 | 51% |
Optimal v Tim Henman: +0.8±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Rafael wins | v Tim | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 54% | 71% | 76% | 74.3%±3.2 | 67% ▲ |
| Body | 18% | 67% | 70% | 73.7%±6.0 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 28% | 75% | 75% | 78.2%±3.4 | 28% |
Optimal v Tim Henman: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Tim Henman serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Tim wins | v Rafael | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 45% | 76% | 66% | 70.0%±3.6 | 43% ▼ |
| Body | 11% | 64% | 58% | 58.4%±6.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 77% | 74% | 76.6%±3.3 | 57% ▲ |
Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Tim wins | v Rafael | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 73% | 71% | 71.3%±3.6 | 60% ▲ |
| Body | 15% | 62% | 57% | 56.5%±6.1 | 2% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 73% | 66% | 67.9%±4.2 | 38% |
Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Rafael Nadal returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tim | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | +4.3 | +0.4 | −5.1 | −0.4±1.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 31% | +5.5 | +2.4 | +2.7 | +10.6±2.6 |
| FH down the line | 16% | +1.7 | −0.8 | −1.7 | −0.9±3.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 3% | −4.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −4.2±2.1 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.3 | +7.5 | +0.9 | +4.1±2.4 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +7.7±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tim | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | −0.2 | −4.7 | +1.5±1.4 |
| BH crosscourt | 19% | +8.8 | −1.2 | −4.4 | +3.2±2.3 |
| BH slice through the middle | 17% | −4.2 | +2.1 | −2.5 | −4.6±1.8 |
| BH down the line | 15% | +4.2 | +3.3 | −0.2 | +7.4±2.7 |
| BH slice down the line | 7% | −8.4 | +5.7 | +0.2 | −2.5±2.8 |
| FH inside-in | 0% | +8.0 | +2.3 | +2.7 | +13.0±3.6 |
Lean FH inside-in: +11.6±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tim | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 48% | −0.2 | +0.7 | −1.2 | −0.7±3.3 |
| FH through the middle | 33% | −3.5 | −2.6 | +0.2 | −5.9±2.1 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | +3.8 | +2.5 | +4.5±3.9 |
| BH inside-out | 1% | +0.9 | +0.3 | +2.0 | +3.2±3.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −12.7 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −12.8±1.3 |
Lean FH down the line: +6.2±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tim | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 35% | −2.9 | +2.0 | −0.8 | −1.7±1.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | +1.0 | −1.0 | +2.1 | +2.0±2.3 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.2 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +3.6±2.8 |
| FH through the middle | 9% | −2.9 | +1.2 | +0.2 | −1.4±1.8 |
| FH inside-in | 8% | +0.6 | +1.5 | −1.2 | +0.9±3.6 |
Lean BH down the line: +3.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted)
Tim Henman returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 36% | +4.3 | −0.5 | −0.9 | +2.9±1.7 |
| FH down the line | 31% | +1.7 | +3.3 | +0.1 | +5.0±2.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.5 | −3.5 | +1.7 | +3.7±3.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 9% | −4.2 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | −2.8±2.0 |
| FH slice down the line | 5% | −4.3 | +0.8 | −3.6 | −7.0±3.1 |
Lean FH down the line: +2.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (666 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 32% | −4.2 | +0.3 | +1.9 | −2.0±1.5 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 27% | +0.5 | +1.2 | +3.6 | +5.3±2.1 |
| BH through the middle | 16% | +6.4 | −2.1 | +0.7 | +4.9±1.9 |
| BH slice down the line | 10% | −8.4 | −0.9 | −3.0 | −12.2±2.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 9% | +8.8 | −5.3 | +4.3 | +7.7±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +6.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (792 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 36% | −1.8 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.5±3.6 |
| FH through the middle | 30% | −3.5 | −2.4 | −0.4 | −6.3±2.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 28% | −0.2 | +2.5 | −0.7 | +1.6±3.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 4% | −12.7 | +1.5 | +0.1 | −11.1±2.1 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −9.4 | −0.9 | −1.2 | −11.5±1.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (238 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 27% | −4.0 | +0.4 | −2.6 | −6.2±2.4 |
| BH through the middle | 19% | −2.9 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −2.0±1.8 |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | −11.3 | +0.7 | −0.9 | −11.5±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 | −1.8±2.4 |
| BH slice down the line | 10% | −9.3 | +2.1 | −2.9 | −10.1±4.3 |
| FH inside-out | 3% | +1.0 | −2.0 | +0.4 | −0.6±2.6 |
Lean FH inside-out: +4.9±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (582 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Rafael Nadal
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +10.5±5.0 | +11.2 | −0.7 |
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | +6.9±4.7 | +2.3 | +4.6 |
| BH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | +6.0±5.0 | +6.9 | −0.9 |
| BH slice to their forehand · return | +5.2±3.0 | +3.3 | +1.8 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +5.1±1.8 | +2.7 | +2.4 |
| FH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | +4.4±4.9 | +5.5 | −1.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return +1 | −3.4±1.8 | +1.5 | −4.9 |
| FH to the middle · return | −3.0±1.3 | +0.1 | −3.1 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return +1 | −2.8±2.1 | −0.9 | −2.0 |
| BH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | −2.8±4.5 | −3.0 | +0.2 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −2.4±1.7 | −0.9 | −1.5 |
Tim Henman
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | +6.5±4.0 | +0.8 | +5.6 |
| BH volley to the middle · serve +1 | +5.6±3.8 | +3.4 | +2.2 |
| FH volley to the middle · serve +1 | +5.2±4.2 | +2.9 | +2.3 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +4.1±4.5 | −3.0 | +7.1 |
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.4±2.4 | +3.8 | −1.4 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +2.3±2.1 | +1.3 | +1.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | −7.2±4.6 | −2.0 | −5.2 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −4.9±1.8 | −3.5 | −1.4 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | −4.6±4.4 | +2.5 | −7.0 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −4.5±1.6 | −3.8 | −0.6 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −4.3±2.0 | −4.9 | +0.7 |
Against Tim Henman-like opponents
| Rafael Nadal v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 66.0% | 40.1% |
| Players most similar to Tim Henman | 2 | 71.0% | 30.6% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Gilles Muller, Greg Rusedski, Mark Philippoussis, Pete Sampras, Patrick Rafter, Todd Martin, Richard Krajicek, Boris Becker, Michael Stich, Brad Gilbert. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.