Game plan

Roberto Carballes Baena v Fabio Fognini

Every number combines what Roberto Carballes Baena does well with what Fabio Fognini allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Roberto Carballes Baena wins, best of 3 47%90%: 20%–76% · best of 5: 47%

Serve points won 63.2% / 63.7% Roberto / Fabio · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 48%serve 63.1% / 63.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roberto Carballes Baena's record against Fabio Fognini's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.4 on serve, −3.4 on return vs expectation (208 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Roberto	Fabio
Direction choice	−0.06 ±0.09 better than 41%	±0.00 ±0.06 better than 58%
Shot selection	+0.14 ±0.19 better than 68%	−0.12 ±0.12 better than 36%
Execution	+0.70 ±0.38 better than 89%	−1.06 ±0.38 better than 24%
Points left on the table	2.61 ±0.12 lower than 48%	2.46 ±0.10 lower than 67%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Roberto Carballes Baena +0.93, Fabio Fognini +0.20. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Roberto Carballes Baena serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Fabio	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	68%	69%	63.3%±5.6	42% ▼
Body	12%	56%	73%	67.2%±9.7	3% ▼
T	42%	72%	75%	72.0%±5.6	55% ▲

Optimal v Fabio Fognini: +0.2±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Fabio	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	63%	71%	60.4%±5.4	48% ▼
Body	15%	61%	71%	68.9%±9.7	28% ▲
T	25%	63%	71%	61.9%±7.5	24%

Optimal v Fabio Fognini: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Fabio Fognini serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Fabio wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	71%	71%	68.6%±5.4	57% ▲
Body	13%	56%	62%	54.1%±11.6	0% ▼
T	44%	68%	75%	68.3%±6.2	43%

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Fabio wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	67%	73%	67.7%±5.9	46%
Body	13%	57%	63%	56.5%±12.5	0% ▼
T	41%	67%	73%	68.8%±6.2	54% ▲

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Roberto Carballes Baena returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	+1.9	+1.3	+7.5±2.2
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+2.6	−0.3	+4.0±4.0
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+0.3	−0.3	+5.5±4.1
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	+0.9	−4.1±2.3
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.3	+1.4	−1.5±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +2.8±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (452 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.1	+0.6	+7.2±2.1
BH crosscourt	37%	+8.8	+2.0	+2.8	+13.6±2.9
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	+2.1	−1.8±2.4
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+0.4	±0.0	+4.6±4.5
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−0.1	+3.8	+4.3±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (393 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+0.9	+0.8	−1.8±2.6
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−0.8	+0.9	−1.6±4.5
FH crosscourt	13%	−0.2	+1.0	+0.6	+1.4±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (148 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Fabio	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.9	+1.7	+1.8±2.7
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.4	−1.6±2.1
FH inside-out	11%	+1.0	−0.1	+0.9	+1.8±3.5
FH through the middle	11%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.8	−1.2±2.1
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	−0.3	−0.4	−0.9±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.6±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (297 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Fabio Fognini returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+1.0	+1.6	+6.9±2.2
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	+4.7	−1.2	+5.3±4.3
FH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	+0.2	−0.6	−4.6±2.2
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	−0.3	+3.3	+8.5±4.2
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.8	+0.1	−3.4±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (717 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH through the middle	35%	+6.4	+0.4	+1.3	+8.1±2.1
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	−0.2	+0.6	+9.2±3.0
BH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	+1.4	−1.2	−4.1±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	−0.8	−2.1	−2.4±2.9
BH down the line	6%	+4.2	−1.0	−1.0	+2.2±4.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.9±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (814 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.5	−0.5	+0.4	−3.5±2.8
FH down the line	35%	−1.8	−4.1	±0.0	−5.8±4.7
FH crosscourt	15%	−0.2	−0.2	+0.8	+0.4±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (145 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	−0.6	+1.1	−2.3±2.1
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.0	+0.2	+0.6	+1.8±2.8
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−1.0	−2.4	−3.6±4.9
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	+0.1	+0.4	−2.3±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.0	−2.7	−2.1	−8.8±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (690 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Roberto Carballes Baena

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	+4.2±3.7	+1.7	+2.5
BH to the middle · rally	+3.5±2.3	+1.8	+1.7
BH to the middle · return	+3.1±2.6	+0.8	+2.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±3.6	+2.9	+0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.0±2.8	+1.6	+1.4
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.8±4.0	+1.8	+1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−6.0±4.2	−0.4	−5.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.7±4.8	−0.5	−2.2
FH to their forehand · return	−2.6±5.3	+1.2	−3.8
FH to their backhand · return	−2.2±4.5	−0.2	−2.0
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±2.6	+2.6	−4.7

Fabio Fognini

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+6.5±5.8	+5.1	+1.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.9±4.4	+3.0	−0.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.8±4.0	−0.4	+3.3
FH to their forehand · return	+2.8±4.0	+0.6	+2.2
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+2.8±5.8	+1.3	+1.5
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.5±2.9	+0.9	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	−5.9±5.3	−4.6	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.3±3.5	−7.4	+2.0
BH slice to their backhand · return	−4.9±3.6	−2.4	−2.5
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.4±4.4	−2.7	−1.6
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	−3.1±3.3	−2.8	−0.3

Against Fabio Fognini-like opponents

Roberto Carballes Baena v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.8%	35.6%
Players most similar to Fabio Fognini	1	67.7%	36.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Alexander Shevchenko, Zizou Bergs, Laslo Djere, Alexandre Muller, Roman Safiullin, Matteo Arnaldi, Otto Virtanen, Kei Nishikori, Lucas Pouille, Gregoire Barrere. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.