Game plan
Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer
Every number combines what Stan Wawrinka does well with what Roger Federer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Stan Wawrinka's record against Roger Federer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.2 on serve, +0.8 on return vs expectation (1367 points); head-to-head: +0.5 on serve, −0.8 on return vs expectation (3009 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Stan | Roger |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.15 ±0.05 better than 88% | +0.04 ±0.02 better than 68% |
| Shot selection | −0.72 ±0.08 better than 5% | +0.18 ±0.03 better than 72% |
| Execution | −0.11 ±0.23 better than 63% | +0.08 ±0.09 better than 72% |
| Points left on the table | 2.40 ±0.08 lower than 74% | 2.74 ±0.04 lower than 35% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Stan Wawrinka serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Stan wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 45% | 72% | 69% | 68.2%±2.0 | 41% ▼ |
| Body | 9% | 63% | 63% | 62.8%±4.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 77% | 70% | 72.6%±2.1 | 59% ▲ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.4±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Stan wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 73% | 68% | 68.6%±2.1 | 65% ▲ |
| Body | 4% | 63% | 61% | 60.6%±5.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 73% | 67% | 67.5%±2.3 | 35% ▼ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.2±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Roger Federer serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Stan | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 76% | 73% | 76.8%±1.7 | 50% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 68% | 66% | 71.0%±3.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 81% | 75% | 81.3%±1.6 | 50% ▲ |
Optimal v Stan Wawrinka: +0.3±0.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Stan | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 78% | 74% | 79.5%±1.6 | 69% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 64% | 66% | 66.5%±4.0 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 76% | 73% | 76.7%±1.9 | 31% ▼ |
Optimal v Stan Wawrinka: +0.5±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Stan Wawrinka returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 30% | +4.3 | −2.6 | −0.9 | +0.7±1.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 27% | −4.2 | +0.7 | −0.4 | −3.9±1.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 15% | +5.5 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +4.7±2.2 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 13% | −4.3 | +2.3 | −1.0 | −3.0±2.0 |
| FH down the line | 8% | +1.7 | −2.6 | −2.0 | −2.9±2.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2553 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 40% | −4.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −5.0±0.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 30% | +0.5 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | +2.0±1.2 |
| BH through the middle | 12% | +6.4 | −3.1 | −1.4 | +1.9±1.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 8% | +8.8 | −0.5 | −0.8 | +7.5±2.1 |
| BH slice down the line | 6% | −8.4 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −9.9±2.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +8.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2669 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | −3.5 | −1.3 | −1.3 | −6.1±1.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 33% | −0.2 | −1.8 | −1.5 | −3.6±2.6 |
| FH down the line | 10% | −1.8 | −0.5 | −1.4 | −3.7±3.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 6% | −12.7 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −12.3±2.2 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 2% | −12.5 | −0.3 | −2.7 | −15.5±2.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (745 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 31% | +1.0 | +0.4 | −0.9 | +0.5±1.3 |
| BH through the middle | 28% | −2.9 | +0.7 | −0.7 | −2.9±1.1 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 16% | −4.0 | −4.1 | −2.5 | −10.6±1.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 9% | −11.3 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −14.9±1.7 |
| BH down the line | 7% | −0.2 | −2.1 | −1.0 | −3.4±3.3 |
| FH inside-in | 4% | +0.6 | +2.6 | −1.5 | +1.6±3.3 |
Lean FH inside-in: +5.8±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1996 returns charted)
Roger Federer returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Stan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +0.3 | −1.1 | +3.4±0.9 |
| FH down the line | 25% | +1.7 | −0.4 | −0.8 | +0.5±2.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.5 | −0.6 | −1.0 | +3.9±2.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −4.2 | +2.8 | ±0.0 | −1.4±1.5 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.9 | −0.3 | −2.6±2.9 |
| BH through the middle | 0% | +6.6 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +7.3±2.2 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.9±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Stan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 26% | −4.2 | +2.2 | +0.7 | −1.3±1.0 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | −0.8 | +0.2 | +5.8±1.0 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 23% | +0.5 | +3.3 | +1.0 | +4.8±1.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +8.8 | −2.0 | +1.0 | +7.9±1.5 |
| BH down the line | 8% | +4.2 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +5.4±2.7 |
| FH inside-out | 0% | +8.6 | +0.5 | −0.8 | +8.3±3.0 |
Lean FH inside-out: +4.9±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Stan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | −3.5 | +0.5 | −1.3 | −4.2±1.3 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +1.2 | −3.9 | −4.4±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | −0.2 | −1.5 | −1.0 | −2.7±2.8 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −6.9 | +1.5 | −0.4 | −5.8±2.1 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0±1.6 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Stan | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 25% | −4.0 | +1.4 | −0.7 | −3.3±1.6 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | −2.9 | −1.4 | −0.4 | −4.7±0.8 |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | −11.3 | +1.0 | −0.4 | −10.7±1.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +1.0 | −2.3 | −0.2 | −1.5±1.3 |
| BH down the line | 8% | −0.2 | −0.3 | −1.0 | −1.6±2.6 |
| FH inside-in | 4% | +0.6 | +0.6 | −1.0 | +0.1±2.9 |
Lean FH inside-in: +4.7±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Stan Wawrinka
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice to their forehand · return | +1.8±1.9 | +3.4 | −1.6 |
| FH slice to the middle · rally | +1.6±1.8 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| FH slice to their forehand · return +1 | +1.2±3.5 | +2.4 | −1.2 |
| FH slice to their backhand · return | +0.9±2.2 | +1.8 | −0.9 |
| FH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | +0.7±4.6 | +2.3 | −1.6 |
| FH slice to their forehand · rally | +0.5±2.9 | +2.5 | −1.9 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH volley to the middle · rally | −9.7±4.9 | −4.5 | −5.3 |
| BH volley to the middle · rally | −7.3±4.4 | −5.2 | −2.1 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −7.0±4.0 | −1.3 | −5.7 |
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | −6.9±4.2 | −2.7 | −4.3 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | −6.1±1.9 | −2.1 | −4.0 |
Roger Federer
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smash to the middle · rally | +6.9±4.3 | +6.3 | +0.6 |
| FH volley to the middle · rally | +6.7±4.6 | +2.8 | +3.9 |
| FH volley to their backhand · rally | +4.8±3.7 | +1.2 | +3.6 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | +4.5±3.6 | +1.9 | +2.6 |
| BH drop shot to their forehand · serve +1 | +3.7±4.8 | +7.5 | −3.8 |
| BH drop shot to their forehand · rally | +3.3±4.1 | +3.4 | −0.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to the middle · serve +1 | −6.0±2.2 | −1.3 | −4.7 |
| FH drop shot to their forehand · rally | −4.2±5.4 | +0.4 | −4.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | −4.0±2.0 | +0.5 | −4.4 |
| FH slice to their backhand · return +1 | −3.7±3.3 | −2.1 | −1.6 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | −3.0±2.3 | +0.2 | −3.2 |
Against Roger Federer-like opponents
| Stan Wawrinka v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 64.7% | 34.8% |
| Players most similar to Roger Federer | 8 | 65.1% | 35.3% |
| Roger Federer (charted head-to-head) | 17 | 63.1% | 29.9% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexei Popyrin, Dominic Thiem, Tim Van Rijthoven, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Tommy Haas, Ivan Ljubicic, James Blake. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.
Charted head-to-head
- Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer Roland Garros QF · Clay · 5 Jun 2019
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Cincinnati Masters QF · Hard · 17 Aug 2018
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Indian Wells Masters F · Hard · 19 Mar 2017
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Australian Open SF · Hard · 26 Jan 2017
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Tour Finals SF · Hard · 21 Nov 2015
- Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer US Open SF · Hard · 11 Sep 2015
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Roland Garros QF · Clay · 3 Jun 2015
- Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer Rome Masters SF · Clay · 16 May 2015
- Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer Wimbledon QF · Grass · 2 Jul 2014
- Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer Monte Carlo Masters F · Clay · 20 Apr 2014
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Shanghai Masters R16 · Hard · 8 Oct 2012
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Roland Garros R16 · Clay · 29 May 2011
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Indian Wells Masters QF · Hard · 16 Mar 2011
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Australian Open QF · Hard · 26 Jan 2011
- Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer Roland Garros R16 · Clay · 1 Jun 2010
- Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka Monte Carlo Masters R16 · Clay · 16 Apr 2009
- Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer Dubai R32 · Hard · 20 Feb 2006