Game plan

Stefan Edberg v Rafael Nadal

Every number combines what Stefan Edberg does well with what Rafael Nadal allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Stefan Edberg wins, best of 3 32%90%: 21%–46% · best of 5: 28%

Serve points won 63.8% / 67.6% Stefan / Rafael · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 32%serve 63.8% / 67.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Stefan Edberg's record against Rafael Nadal's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Stefan	Rafael
Direction choice	+0.16 ±0.05 better than 89%	+0.02 ±0.03 better than 62%
Shot selection	+0.79 ±0.06 better than 98%	+0.38 ±0.05 better than 85%
Execution	−0.62 ±0.21 better than 40%	+1.32 ±0.10 better than 99%
Points left on the table	3.93 ±0.11 lower than 5%	2.66 ±0.04 lower than 43%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Stefan Edberg serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Stefan wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	75%	66%	68.6%±1.9	55% ▲
Body	20%	69%	58%	63.7%±3.2	7% ▼
T	38%	72%	74%	71.2%±2.0	38%

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.1±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Stefan wins	v Rafael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	72%	71%	71.2%±1.8	68% ▲
Body	15%	65%	57%	59.1%±3.5	2% ▼
T	30%	70%	66%	64.5%±2.4	30%

Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Rafael Nadal serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Stefan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	75%	69%	70.5%±2.0	44% ▲
Body	18%	64%	62%	63.0%±3.4	5% ▼
T	51%	69%	74%	68.3%±1.9	51%

Optimal v Stefan Edberg: +0.5±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Rafael wins	v Stefan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	71%	69%	67.5%±1.8	67% ▲
Body	18%	67%	63%	66.5%±3.4	5% ▼
T	28%	75%	70%	73.5%±2.1	28%

Optimal v Stefan Edberg: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Stefan Edberg returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	+0.4	−0.9	+3.8±0.9
FH down the line	31%	+1.7	+5.4	+0.1	+7.2±1.9
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	+2.6	+1.7	+9.9±1.8
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	+0.8	+1.9	+1.0±1.7
FH slice through the middle	1%	−4.2	−0.5	±0.0	−4.8±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.9±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (3660 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
BH slice through the middle	32%	−4.2	+1.2	+1.9	−1.1±1.0
BH slice crosscourt	25%	+0.5	+5.2	+3.6	+9.3±1.6
BH through the middle	14%	+6.4	−1.4	+0.7	+5.7±1.2
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	+5.0	−3.0	−6.4±2.0
BH crosscourt	9%	+8.8	+1.1	+4.3	+14.1±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +10.4±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (4178 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
FH down the line	34%	−1.8	+5.6	+0.4	+4.2±2.7
FH through the middle	32%	−3.5	−0.4	−0.4	−4.3±1.5
FH crosscourt	28%	−0.2	+2.2	−0.7	+1.3±2.5
BH slice through the middle	2%	−6.9	+1.3	−0.9	−6.5±2.1
BH slice inside-in	2%	−2.1	+0.2	−2.6	−4.5±2.8

Lean FH down the line: +4.1±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1191 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rafael	Value
BH slice crosscourt	29%	−4.0	+2.5	−2.6	−4.1±2.0
BH through the middle	17%	−2.9	−0.4	+0.1	−3.1±1.2
BH crosscourt	13%	+1.0	−0.8	−0.2	±0.0±1.8
BH slice through the middle	12%	−11.3	+2.8	−0.9	−9.4±2.0
BH slice down the line	12%	−9.3	+4.3	−2.9	−7.9±3.7
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+2.6	−0.7	+2.5±3.3

Lean FH inside-in: +6.1±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (2884 returns charted)

Rafael Nadal returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+0.4	−2.2	+2.4±1.0
FH crosscourt	31%	+5.5	+2.4	+3.0	+10.9±1.7
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−0.8	+0.5	+1.4±2.1
FH slice through the middle	3%	−4.2	+0.1	−0.2	−4.3±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	+7.5	−1.9	+1.2±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.3±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	−0.2	−4.0	+2.2±0.7
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−1.2	−1.5	+6.1±1.3
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	+2.1	−1.4	−3.6±1.2
BH down the line	15%	+4.2	+3.3	+1.4	+9.0±1.7
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+5.7	+0.9	−1.8±2.0
FH inside-in	0%	+8.0	+2.3	+3.0	+13.3±3.1

Lean FH inside-in: +10.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
FH crosscourt	48%	−0.2	+0.7	+4.0	+4.4±2.2
FH through the middle	33%	−3.5	−2.6	−2.4	−8.5±1.4
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+3.8	+4.0	+6.1±3.0
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	+0.3	+3.7	+4.9±2.9
FH slice through the middle	1%	−12.7	−0.2	+0.7	−12.1±1.9

Lean FH down the line: +5.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Stefan	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	+2.0	−3.0	−3.9±0.9
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	−1.0	−1.3	−1.3±1.4
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	+1.8	+3.7	+5.3±2.1
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	+1.2	−2.4	−4.1±1.3
FH inside-in	8%	+0.6	+1.5	+4.0	+6.1±2.6

Lean FH inside-in: +6.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Stefan Edberg

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+14.1±6.5	+3.6	+10.5
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+11.4±5.6	+8.5	+2.9
FH lob to their backhand · return +1	+8.3±5.7	+9.8	−1.4
FH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+7.6±5.5	+8.5	−0.9
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+7.5±5.0	+2.0	+5.5
BH slice to their forehand · return +1	+7.3±4.3	+4.4	+2.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
Smash to their forehand · rally	−8.7±5.0	−1.0	−7.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.8±3.5	−3.4	−2.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	−5.5±4.2	±0.0	−5.5
FH to the middle · return +1	−4.9±3.2	−2.4	−2.5
BH to the middle · return +1	−4.8±2.8	−6.1	+1.2

Rafael Nadal

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+18.0±6.9	+16.7	+1.4
BH slice to their forehand · return	+11.9±4.3	+4.7	+7.3
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+9.8±6.9	+10.3	−0.5
FH volley to the middle · rally	+9.8±7.9	+8.8	+1.0
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+8.5±6.3	+9.4	−0.9
BH slice to their backhand · serve +1	+8.1±3.7	−0.2	+8.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	−6.5±3.3	−0.9	−5.5
BH to the middle · return +1	−5.2±3.0	+2.5	−7.6
FH to the middle · return +1	−4.7±3.4	+0.4	−5.1
BH lob to their backhand · rally	−4.4±5.6	+0.3	−4.7
BH lob to their backhand · return +1	−2.3±5.5	−1.1	−1.2

Against Rafael Nadal-like opponents

Stefan Edberg v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	64.9%	37.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cameron Norrie, Lorenzo Musetti, Mariano Navone, Yoshihito Nishioka, Albert Ramos, Federico Delbonis, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.