Game plan

Thanasi Kokkinakis v Robin Soderling

Every number combines what Thanasi Kokkinakis does well with what Robin Soderling allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Thanasi Kokkinakis wins, best of 3 24%90%: 7%–53% · best of 5: 19%

Serve points won 63.5% / 69.4% Thanasi / Robin · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 21%serve 62.6% / 69.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Thanasi Kokkinakis's record against Robin Soderling's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +2.8 on serve, −0.8 on return vs expectation (1357 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Thanasi	Robin
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.07 better than 63%	−0.04 ±0.10 better than 45%
Shot selection	−0.38 ±0.18 better than 18%	+0.37 ±0.15 better than 84%
Execution	−0.13 ±0.56 better than 61%	−0.27 ±0.51 better than 54%
Points left on the table	2.45 ±0.10 lower than 68%	2.34 ±0.15 lower than 80%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Thanasi Kokkinakis serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Thanasi wins	v Robin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	76%	77%	79.2%±4.7	61% ▲
Body	5%	61%	67%	64.8%±12.1	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	76%	74.5%±5.3	39% ▼

Optimal v Robin Soderling: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Thanasi wins	v Robin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	80%	78%	84.0%±4.0	65% ▲
Body	7%	62%	65%	64.4%±12.4	0% ▼
T	41%	77%	76%	80.7%±5.0	35% ▼

Optimal v Robin Soderling: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Robin Soderling serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Robin wins	v Thanasi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	72%	77%	76.0%±4.9	42% ▼
Body	9%	66%	66%	68.2%±10.2	0% ▼
T	45%	79%	78%	82.0%±4.5	58% ▲

Optimal v Thanasi Kokkinakis: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Robin wins	v Thanasi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	80%	80%	85.1%±4.2	62% ▲
Body	7%	68%	62%	67.1%±11.6	0% ▼
T	44%	66%	72%	66.7%±6.4	38% ▼

Optimal v Thanasi Kokkinakis: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +9.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Thanasi Kokkinakis returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Robin	Value
FH through the middle	38%	+4.3	+1.1	+0.3	+5.7±2.5
FH down the line	31%	+1.7	−1.4	±0.0	+0.3±4.2
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	+1.0	−1.3	+5.1±4.4
FH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.7	+0.5	−5.4±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−4.3	+0.8	+1.1	−2.4±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +3.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (466 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Robin	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.4	+1.3	+0.4	+8.1±2.6
BH crosscourt	35%	+8.8	−0.4	+0.6	+9.0±3.3
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.5	+2.0	−3.7±2.4
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	−2.5	+0.3	+2.0±4.5
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−0.9	±0.0	−0.4±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (473 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Robin	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+1.3	−1.8	−4.0±2.8
FH down the line	30%	−1.8	−0.5	−0.3	−2.6±4.6
FH crosscourt	20%	−0.2	−1.2	+0.4	−1.0±4.2
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+0.1	+2.0	−10.6±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (96 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Robin	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.9	+1.1	−0.1	−1.9±2.3
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.0	±0.0	+1.2	+2.3±3.1
BH down the line	16%	−0.2	−1.2	+0.8	−0.6±5.0
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+1.4	−1.8	−3.3±2.1
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	+0.9	−0.3	+1.6±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (318 returns charted)

Robin Soderling returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thanasi	Value
FH down the line	46%	+1.7	−0.1	−3.3	−1.7±4.0
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	+0.9	−1.8	+3.3±2.5
FH crosscourt	7%	+5.5	−0.5	+0.2	+5.2±4.3
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	±0.0	−0.2	−4.4±1.9
FH slice down the line	1%	−4.3	−0.3	−0.7	−5.2±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (369 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thanasi	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.9	−0.6	+6.6±2.4
BH down the line	21%	+4.2	−0.2	−2.0	+2.1±4.6
BH crosscourt	20%	+8.8	+0.2	−2.2	+6.8±3.4
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.6	−1.6	−6.4±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	+0.3	−0.3	+0.5±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (411 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thanasi	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.5	+1.3	±0.0	−2.2±2.7
FH down the line	39%	−1.8	−5.3	−0.3	−7.4±4.6
FH crosscourt	16%	−0.2	−1.4	−3.5	−5.1±4.2
BH inside-out	4%	+0.9	−3.1	−0.4	−2.6±3.6

Lean FH through the middle: +2.5±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (115 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thanasi	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	+0.6	−0.2	−2.5±2.2
BH down the line	30%	−0.2	−1.0	−0.4	−1.6±4.9
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.0	+2.1	+1.1	+4.2±3.0
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	−0.3	±0.0	−3.2±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (266 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return +1	+12.7±6.7	+4.6	+8.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+7.8±5.1	+2.3	+5.6
BH to the middle · return +1	+3.8±3.3	+3.1	+0.8
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+3.1±4.2	−0.1	+3.2
BH to the middle · return	+3.1±3.1	+2.6	+0.5
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+2.8±3.0	+0.3	+2.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−3.1±3.7	−1.7	−1.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.5±5.1	−4.5	+2.0
FH to their forehand · return	−0.4±6.0	−1.1	+0.7
FH to their forehand · return +1	−0.3±5.5	−1.5	+1.2
FH to their backhand · return	−0.2±4.8	−2.3	+2.1

Robin Soderling

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+10.6±6.3	+5.4	+5.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+6.2±5.4	±0.0	+6.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.1±4.3	±0.0	+2.0
BH to the middle · return +1	+1.9±3.4	+1.4	+0.5
BH to the middle · return	+1.1±3.0	+3.0	−2.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	+0.8±4.8	−0.7	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.5±3.6	−1.1	−4.4
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.6±4.1	−3.8	−0.9
BH to their forehand · return	−3.4±5.7	−0.1	−3.3
FH to their backhand · return	−3.0±4.7	−0.3	−2.7
FH to their forehand · return	−2.7±5.9	−1.6	−1.1

Against Robin Soderling-like opponents

Thanasi Kokkinakis v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.0%	31.7%
Players most similar to Robin Soderling	6	68.4%	31.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Joao Fonseca, Hubert Hurkacz, Andrey Rublev, Alexei Popyrin, Laslo Djere, Marin Cilic, Roman Safiullin, Kyle Edmund, Tomas Berdych. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.