Game plan
Tommy Haas v Roger Federer
Every number combines what Tommy Haas does well with what Roger Federer allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tommy Haas's record against Roger Federer's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.8 on serve, +7.5 on return vs expectation (481 points); head-to-head: +3.0 on serve, −0.2 on return vs expectation (1984 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Tommy | Roger |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.12 ±0.07 better than 84% | +0.04 ±0.02 better than 68% |
| Shot selection | −0.59 ±0.12 better than 9% | +0.18 ±0.03 better than 72% |
| Execution | −0.02 ±0.38 better than 67% | +0.08 ±0.09 better than 72% |
| Points left on the table | 2.57 ±0.14 lower than 52% | 2.74 ±0.04 lower than 35% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Tommy Haas serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Tommy wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 72% | 69% | 68.4%±3.6 | 51% ▲ |
| Body | 4% | 62% | 63% | 61.0%±8.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 57% | 69% | 70% | 64.3%±3.2 | 49% ▼ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Tommy wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 53% | 73% | 68% | 68.4%±3.4 | 66% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 57% | 61% | 54.4%±8.5 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 66% | 67% | 60.0%±3.9 | 29% ▼ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Roger Federer serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Tommy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 76% | 72% | 75.8%±3.0 | 41% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 68% | 63% | 67.8%±6.4 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 81% | 77% | 83.3%±2.4 | 59% ▲ |
Optimal v Tommy Haas: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Tommy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 78% | 79% | 83.7%±2.4 | 69% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 64% | 67% | 67.4%±7.6 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 76% | 75% | 78.4%±3.2 | 31% ▼ |
Optimal v Tommy Haas: +0.9±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Tommy Haas returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | +4.3 | +0.8 | −0.9 | +4.1±1.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 22% | +5.5 | −0.4 | −0.8 | +4.3±2.8 |
| FH down the line | 17% | +1.7 | +1.4 | −2.0 | +1.1±3.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 12% | −4.2 | +3.3 | −0.4 | −1.3±1.7 |
| FH slice down the line | 4% | −4.3 | +1.0 | −0.4 | −3.6±2.6 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (729 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 38% | −4.2 | +3.4 | −0.8 | −1.6±1.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 22% | +0.5 | +4.2 | ±0.0 | +4.7±2.0 |
| BH through the middle | 15% | +6.4 | +3.0 | −1.4 | +8.1±1.9 |
| BH slice down the line | 9% | −8.4 | +3.5 | −1.9 | −6.8±2.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 8% | +8.8 | +2.1 | −0.8 | +10.2±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +8.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (754 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 47% | −3.5 | +1.2 | −1.3 | −3.5±2.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 25% | −0.2 | −2.8 | −1.5 | −4.6±3.3 |
| FH down the line | 23% | −1.8 | −1.3 | −1.4 | −4.5±3.5 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −12.7 | +1.3 | −0.1 | −11.5±1.9 |
Lean FH through the middle: +0.9±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (204 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 28% | −2.9 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −4.6±1.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 23% | +1.0 | +0.6 | −0.9 | +0.7±2.1 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 20% | −4.0 | +0.5 | −2.5 | −6.0±2.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 13% | −11.3 | −1.2 | −1.9 | −14.5±2.0 |
| BH down the line | 12% | −0.2 | +1.5 | −1.0 | +0.3±3.7 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (585 returns charted)
Roger Federer returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tommy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +4.7±1.5 |
| FH down the line | 25% | +1.7 | −0.4 | −1.0 | +0.3±2.6 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.5 | −0.6 | +2.5 | +7.4±3.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −4.2 | +2.8 | +0.7 | −0.7±1.9 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.9 | +0.7 | −1.6±2.9 |
| BH inside-in | 0% | +7.7 | −1.6 | +3.3 | +9.3±3.4 |
Lean BH inside-in: +5.7±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tommy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 26% | −4.2 | +2.2 | +2.3 | +0.3±1.4 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | −0.8 | +0.8 | +6.4±1.5 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 23% | +0.5 | +3.3 | +2.5 | +6.3±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +8.8 | −2.0 | +3.3 | +10.1±2.1 |
| BH down the line | 8% | +4.2 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +5.6±3.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tommy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | −3.5 | +0.5 | +1.4 | −1.6±1.8 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +1.2 | −3.0 | −3.6±3.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.8 | −2.5±3.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −6.9 | +1.5 | −0.8 | −6.2±2.2 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.4±1.8 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tommy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 25% | −4.0 | +1.4 | −1.6 | −4.2±1.8 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | −2.9 | −1.4 | +1.0 | −3.3±1.4 |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | −11.3 | +1.0 | −0.8 | −11.1±1.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +1.0 | −2.3 | −1.2 | −2.5±1.9 |
| BH down the line | 8% | −0.2 | −0.3 | +1.7 | +1.1±3.6 |
Lean BH down the line: +5.3±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Tommy Haas
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice to the middle · return | +3.9±2.4 | +4.5 | −0.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +1.7±1.9 | +2.6 | −1.0 |
| BH slice to the middle · return +1 | +1.4±2.5 | +2.9 | −1.5 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return +1 | +0.9±2.2 | +1.9 | −1.1 |
| FH to the middle · return | +0.5±1.6 | +1.3 | −0.8 |
| BH to their backhand · return +1 | +0.2±2.5 | +0.5 | −0.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH drop shot to their forehand · rally | −11.6±6.4 | −3.8 | −7.8 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −6.5±6.3 | +0.8 | −7.3 |
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | −5.9±4.0 | −1.9 | −4.0 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | −5.9±3.2 | −2.9 | −3.0 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −5.4±2.5 | −1.8 | −3.5 |
Roger Federer
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their backhand · rally | +10.7±6.0 | +2.1 | +8.6 |
| FH volley to their forehand · rally | +5.5±6.0 | +2.4 | +3.1 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | +5.1±6.3 | +3.5 | +1.6 |
| FH slice to the middle · return | +4.7±2.6 | +2.8 | +1.9 |
| BH slice to their forehand · return | +4.5±3.8 | +0.4 | +4.2 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +4.1±1.9 | +3.2 | +0.9 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · rally | −2.9±2.8 | −0.7 | −2.2 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | −2.3±2.4 | −1.8 | −0.5 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −1.9±1.4 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −1.7±1.4 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | −1.6±4.6 | +0.2 | −1.8 |
Against Roger Federer-like opponents
| Tommy Haas v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 61.6% | 32.5% |
| Players most similar to Roger Federer | 2 | 63.6% | 42.4% |
| Roger Federer (charted head-to-head) | 10 | 63.7% | 29.7% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov, Stan Wawrinka, Alexei Popyrin, Dominic Thiem, Tim Van Rijthoven, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Ivan Ljubicic, James Blake. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.
Charted head-to-head
- Tommy Haas v Roger Federer Stuttgart R16 · Grass · 14 Jun 2017
- Tommy Haas v Roger Federer Halle F · Grass · 17 Jun 2012
- Tommy Haas v Roger Federer Wimbledon SF · Grass · 3 Jul 2009
- Roger Federer v Tommy Haas Roland Garros R16 · Clay · 1 Jun 2009
- Tommy Haas v Roger Federer Halle SF · Grass · 17 Jun 2006
- Tommy Haas v Roger Federer Australian Open R16 · Hard · 23 Jan 2006
- Tommy Haas v Roger Federer Doha SF · Hard · 6 Jan 2006
- Roger Federer v Tommy Haas Australian Open R16 · Hard · 22 Jan 2002
- Roger Federer v Tommy Haas Basel R32 · Hard · 23 Oct 2000
- Tommy Haas v Roger Federer Olympics SF · Hard · 22 Sep 2000