Game plan

Vasek Pospisil v Denis Shapovalov

Every number combines what Vasek Pospisil does well with what Denis Shapovalov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Vasek Pospisil wins, best of 3 27%90%: 16%–43% · best of 5: 23%

Serve points won 63.1% / 68.0% Vasek / Denis · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 30%serve 63.6% / 67.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Vasek Pospisil's record against Denis Shapovalov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −13.8 on serve, −4.0 on return vs expectation (106 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Vasek	Denis
Direction choice	−0.20 ±0.14 better than 13%	−0.12 ±0.06 better than 26%
Shot selection	+0.41 ±0.11 better than 87%	+0.40 ±0.12 better than 87%
Execution	−2.16 ±0.60 better than 2%	−0.72 ±0.35 better than 36%
Points left on the table	2.96 ±0.25 lower than 22%	3.39 ±0.11 lower than 9%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Vasek Pospisil serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Vasek wins	v Denis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	78%	71%	75.9%±5.0	36% ▼
Body	8%	56%	63%	56.0%±10.9	0% ▼
T	51%	78%	77%	79.9%±4.5	64% ▲

Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Vasek wins	v Denis	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	78%	78%	82.1%±4.3	48% ▼
Body	7%	63%	66%	65.4%±11.1	0% ▼
T	39%	80%	70%	78.8%±5.2	52% ▲

Optimal v Denis Shapovalov: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Denis Shapovalov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Denis wins	v Vasek	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	77%	77%	80.5%±4.6	51% ▲
Body	7%	65%	66%	67.5%±9.9	0% ▼
T	56%	72%	79%	76.7%±4.9	49% ▼

Optimal v Vasek Pospisil: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Denis wins	v Vasek	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	75%	76%	77.5%±4.7	51% ▼
Body	8%	69%	73%	77.7%±8.3	0% ▼
T	36%	79%	79%	84.7%±4.1	49% ▲

Optimal v Vasek Pospisil: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Vasek Pospisil returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
FH through the middle	54%	+4.3	−1.8	−0.8	+1.6±2.4
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−2.6	−4.8	−5.7±4.1
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.9	+1.0	+7.4±3.9
FH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−2.4	+0.6	−6.0±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.9±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (227 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	−0.1	+2.8	+9.1±2.1
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−2.6	+1.0	−5.8±2.1
BH crosscourt	16%	+8.8	−0.5	+3.1	+11.4±3.1
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	−0.8	−0.3	+3.1±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	+1.5	+3.6	+5.7±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.7±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (311 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
FH through the middle	55%	−3.5	−0.5	+0.2	−3.8±2.3
FH down the line	25%	−1.8	−1.5	−4.3	−7.6±4.0
FH crosscourt	20%	−0.2	−1.0	+1.0	−0.3±3.4

Lean FH through the middle: +0.3±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (51 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Denis	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	−0.6	+1.2	−2.3±2.0
BH crosscourt	29%	+1.0	−3.2	−0.9	−3.1±2.8
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	−6.6	−1.6	−8.4±4.3
BH slice through the middle	6%	−11.3	−1.9	−0.5	−13.7±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +2.0±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (163 returns charted)

Denis Shapovalov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vasek	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−0.4	−2.2	+1.6±2.3
FH crosscourt	20%	+5.5	−0.5	−4.2	+0.8±3.9
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−4.6	−2.0	−4.9±4.1
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	+1.2	−0.5	−3.5±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	+3.5	−0.8	−1.7±2.4

Lean FH through the middle: +2.0±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1294 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vasek	Value
BH through the middle	33%	+6.4	+0.2	−3.0	+3.6±2.1
BH slice through the middle	28%	−4.2	−0.7	−1.0	−5.9±2.0
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	±0.0	−2.0	+2.2±4.1
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	+0.9	−0.6	−8.0±3.2
BH crosscourt	10%	+8.8	−2.5	−3.4	+2.9±3.2

Lean BH through the middle: +4.5±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2081 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vasek	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	−3.8	−1.1	−8.4±2.6
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	+0.1	−5.9	−6.0±4.3
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	−3.0	+0.2	−4.6±4.6
BH through the middle	1%	+0.1	+0.5	+0.1	+0.7±1.6
FH slice crosscourt	1%	−12.5	±0.0	±0.0	−12.5±1.3

Lean FH down the line: +2.6±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (406 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Vasek	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	+1.4	+0.1	−1.4±1.9
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	+0.5	+2.8	+4.4±2.8
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+1.5	−1.5	−0.2±4.4
FH through the middle	6%	−2.9	+0.1	−1.1	−3.9±2.4
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	−1.5	−0.5	−13.3±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1157 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Vasek Pospisil

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.0±4.5	+1.0	+1.0
BH to their backhand · rally	±0.0±3.0	+1.8	−1.8
BH to the middle · return	−1.1±1.9	−3.0	+2.0
BH slice to the middle · rally	−1.2±2.7	+1.0	−2.2
BH to the middle · return +1	−1.9±3.0	−1.9	+0.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.3±3.1	+1.5	−3.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−7.8±4.7	−8.0	+0.2
FH to their forehand · return	−7.7±5.6	−1.9	−5.9
FH to the middle · return	−5.6±2.4	−3.6	−2.0
BH to the middle · rally	−5.1±2.0	−4.8	−0.4
FH to the middle · rally	−5.0±2.2	−5.2	+0.1

Denis Shapovalov

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+5.1±4.9	+0.9	+4.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+1.0±3.9	+1.8	−0.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+0.7±3.0	−0.3	+1.0
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.1±2.8	−1.1	+1.0
BH to their backhand · return +1	−1.2±4.3	−1.8	+0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.3±2.8	−1.3	±0.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−10.6±4.3	−1.0	−9.7
FH to their forehand · return	−8.3±5.4	−6.2	−2.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−7.2±3.3	−6.5	−0.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	−6.5±3.3	−2.3	−4.2
FH to the middle · return	−5.3±2.3	−2.1	−3.1

Against Denis Shapovalov-like opponents

Vasek Pospisil v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.1%	30.4%
Players most similar to Denis Shapovalov	1	49.1%	30.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Rafael Jodar, Jiri Lehecka, Alexei Popyrin, Zizou Bergs, Gabriel Diallo, Pierre Hugues Herbert, Tim Van Rijthoven, Fernando Verdasco, Philipp Kohlschreiber. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.