Game plan

Yevgeny Kafelnikov v Thomas Enqvist

Every number combines what Yevgeny Kafelnikov does well with what Thomas Enqvist allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Yevgeny Kafelnikov wins, best of 3 19%90%: 9%–34% · best of 5: 14%

Serve points won 58.7% / 65.6% Yevgeny / Thomas · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 22%serve 59.8% / 65.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Yevgeny Kafelnikov's record against Thomas Enqvist's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −11.7 on serve, +4.1 on return vs expectation (293 points); head-to-head: −0.5 on serve, −1.0 on return vs expectation (403 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Yevgeny	Thomas
Direction choice	+0.30 ±0.06 better than 98%	+0.16 ±0.14 better than 90%
Shot selection	−0.27 ±0.14 better than 26%	−0.49 ±0.18 better than 11%
Execution	−0.55 ±0.29 better than 42%	−0.02 ±0.73 better than 67%
Points left on the table	2.43 ±0.15 lower than 70%	2.26 ±0.26 lower than 87%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Yevgeny Kafelnikov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yevgeny wins	v Thomas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	72%	74%	73.4%±5.1	64% ▲
Body	7%	66%	65%	67.4%±10.8	0% ▼
T	42%	76%	78%	78.7%±5.1	36% ▼

Optimal v Thomas Enqvist: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yevgeny wins	v Thomas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	73%	72%	71.5%±5.8	44% ▼
Body	6%	63%	65%	64.7%±11.4	0% ▼
T	43%	69%	75%	72.5%±6.3	56% ▲

Optimal v Thomas Enqvist: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Thomas Enqvist serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Thomas wins	v Yevgeny	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	71%	76%	74.3%±5.1	43% ▼
Body	8%	63%	60%	60.3%±12.3	0% ▼
T	44%	79%	79%	82.1%±4.8	57% ▲

Optimal v Yevgeny Kafelnikov: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Thomas wins	v Yevgeny	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	81%	75%	82.5%±5.6	54% ▲
Body	10%	67%	62%	66.1%±11.0	0% ▼
T	49%	74%	72%	74.5%±5.6	46% ▼

Optimal v Yevgeny Kafelnikov: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Yevgeny Kafelnikov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	−1.0	+0.2	+3.5±2.3
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+1.7	−3.0	+0.3±3.9
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	−0.6	+1.0	+5.9±3.9
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	−0.1	−2.7	+3.7±2.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (998 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
BH through the middle	28%	+6.4	−1.2	−2.7	+2.5±2.4
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	−2.0	−1.3	+5.5±3.2
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−0.2	−0.5	−4.9±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	+0.4	+0.9	+1.8±2.8
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−0.6	−3.1	+0.6±4.2
FH through the middle	2%	+7.7	+0.3	+0.2	+8.3±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +7.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1105 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
FH down the line	34%	−1.8	−0.4	−1.0	−3.2±4.4
FH through the middle	34%	−3.5	−0.1	+0.3	−3.3±2.7
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	−4.3	−0.1	−4.6±4.1
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.3	+0.3	+1.6±1.8
BH inside-out	1%	+0.9	−1.2	−3.2	−3.5±3.6

Lean FH down the line: +0.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (473 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Thomas	Value
BH crosscourt	44%	+1.0	−1.3	+1.8	+1.5±2.6
BH through the middle	25%	−2.9	−1.3	+0.3	−3.9±2.1
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	+2.1	−3.2	−1.3±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.0	−1.5	−0.4	−5.9±2.6
BH slice through the middle	4%	−11.3	−1.7	+3.3	−9.7±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1049 returns charted)

Thomas Enqvist returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.3	±0.0	−0.1	+4.2±2.2
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.5	−0.2	−1.9	+3.4±3.8
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+1.2	−0.4	+2.5±3.9

Lean FH through the middle: +0.6±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (270 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−2.0	−2.0	+2.4±2.3
BH crosscourt	32%	+8.8	−0.1	−3.6	+5.1±3.2
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	−1.1	+2.2	+5.3±4.5
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.6	+0.6	−5.3±1.9
BH slice down the line	3%	−8.4	+0.4	−0.9	−8.9±3.1

Lean BH down the line: +2.4±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (272 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.5	−1.7	±0.0	−5.1±2.5
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	−0.1	+1.2	+0.9±4.1
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	−4.3	−0.1	−6.3±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.0±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (107 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yevgeny	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	−0.3	−0.6	+0.1±2.6
BH through the middle	41%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.1	−1.9±2.0
BH down the line	15%	−0.2	+2.7	−2.8	−0.3±4.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (219 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.