Game plan

Yuichi Sugita v Alex Molcan

Every number combines what Yuichi Sugita does well with what Alex Molcan allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Yuichi Sugita wins, best of 3 40%90%: 9%–78% · best of 5: 37%

Serve points won 61.4% / 63.5% Yuichi / Alex · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 40%serve 61.4% / 63.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Yuichi Sugita's record against Alex Molcan's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Yuichi Sugita serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yuichi wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	65%	71%	63.2%±11.7	19% ▼
Body	4%	62%	51%	49.7%±18.1	0% ▼
T	68%	70%	81%	76.6%±8.7	81% ▲

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yuichi wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	58%	77%	63.6%±11.3	58%
Body	13%	63%	63%	63.2%±16.1	0% ▼
T	29%	69%	73%	70.4%±11.9	42% ▲

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alex Molcan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Yuichi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	72%	77%	76.3%±9.9	41% ▲
Body	19%	61%	58%	55.2%±15.6	6% ▼
T	52%	66%	79%	70.5%±10.6	53%

Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Yuichi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	68%	66%	59.7%±11.3	42%
Body	13%	59%	66%	61.5%±16.0	0% ▼
T	45%	71%	68%	67.0%±10.9	58% ▲

Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Yuichi Sugita returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.3	+1.4	−1.1	+4.5±3.0
FH down the line	31%	+1.7	−2.1	−1.1	−1.6±4.0
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+0.4	+1.3	+7.2±4.0

Lean FH through the middle: +1.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+1.6	+0.1	+8.1±2.6
BH crosscourt	36%	+8.8	+1.4	+2.7	+12.9±3.5
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.2	+1.7	−2.7±2.2
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.4	−1.4	+3.2±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.2±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (66 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	+1.9	+1.3	+0.3±2.5
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.0	+1.5	−0.8	+1.7±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Alex Molcan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
FH through the middle	34%	+4.3	±0.0	−1.1	+3.2±3.1
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−0.8	±0.0	−5.0±1.7
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	+0.7	+1.2	+7.4±4.1
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−1.2	−0.5	−0.1±3.9
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+0.8	±0.0	−3.6±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+1.1	+1.0	+8.5±2.7
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−2.6	+0.1	+6.3±3.2
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.4	+1.5	−3.0±2.5
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.8	+1.6	+8.6±4.2
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	−0.7	−2.2	−11.2±3.0

Lean BH down the line: +4.4±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (290 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
FH crosscourt	50%	−0.2	−0.8	−1.7	−2.7±4.3
FH through the middle	38%	−3.5	±0.0	+1.6	−1.9±2.7
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	+1.1	−1.1	−1.8±3.2

Lean FH through the middle: +0.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
BH through the middle	66%	−2.9	+2.5	+0.7	+0.3±2.5
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	+1.8	+0.7	+3.5±3.0
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	+2.1	−0.9	+1.0±4.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Yuichi Sugita

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+3.0±3.2	+1.6	+1.4
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.4±5.2	+0.3	+2.1
FH to the middle · rally	+1.6±2.4	+1.0	+0.6
FH to the middle · return	+1.6±3.5	+1.7	−0.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.5±4.2	−1.0	+1.5
BH to the middle · rally	+0.1±2.8	−1.5	+1.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−8.5±4.7	−6.9	−1.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.5±2.7	−2.2	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.3±4.2	−0.1	−1.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.8±5.0	−0.6	−0.2
BH to the middle · rally	+0.1±2.8	−1.5	+1.6

Alex Molcan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+6.8±4.2	+3.0	+3.7
BH to the middle · rally	+0.7±2.1	+1.0	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.1±4.5	−1.7	+1.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.7±4.7	−1.9	+1.2
FH to the middle · rally	−2.2±2.4	+0.2	−2.4
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.7±2.7	−1.3	−1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.6±3.2	−1.8	−2.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.7±2.7	−1.3	−1.4
FH to the middle · rally	−2.2±2.4	+0.2	−2.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.7±4.7	−1.9	+1.2
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.1±4.5	−1.7	+1.8

Against Alex Molcan-like opponents

Yuichi Sugita v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.1%	38.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Gael Monfils, Miomir Kecmanovic, Yoshihito Nishioka, Albert Ramos, Emil Ruusuvuori, Jiri Vesely, Juan Martin Del Potro, Guido Pella, Nikolay Davydenko. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.