Game plan

Aslan Karatsev v Joao Fonseca

Every number combines what Aslan Karatsev does well with what Joao Fonseca allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Aslan Karatsev wins, best of 3 35%90%: 16%–60% · best of 5: 32%

Serve points won 62.4% / 65.5% Aslan / Joao · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 39%serve 62.9% / 65.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Aslan Karatsev's record against Joao Fonseca's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −5.6 on serve, −4.6 on return vs expectation (277 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Aslan	Joao
Direction choice	−0.09 ±0.12 better than 32%	+0.02 ±0.07 better than 62%
Shot selection	+0.12 ±0.18 better than 67%	−0.24 ±0.14 better than 28%
Execution	−1.95 ±0.63 better than 3%	+0.83 ±0.60 better than 93%
Points left on the table	2.51 ±0.25 lower than 59%	2.55 ±0.09 lower than 55%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Aslan Karatsev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Aslan wins	v Joao	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	72%	69%	68.6%±5.0	45% ▼
Body	12%	60%	60%	56.3%±9.7	0% ▼
T	42%	69%	73%	67.3%±5.3	55% ▲

Optimal v Joao Fonseca: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Aslan wins	v Joao	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	74%	72%	72.5%±4.9	67% ▲
Body	14%	60%	62%	58.8%±9.5	1% ▼
T	32%	77%	74%	79.3%±5.0	32%

Optimal v Joao Fonseca: +1.0±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Joao Fonseca serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Joao wins	v Aslan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	76%	71%	74.8%±4.8	56% ▲
Body	9%	65%	61%	62.5%±8.6	0% ▼
T	48%	76%	74%	74.5%±4.7	44% ▼

Optimal v Aslan Karatsev: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Joao wins	v Aslan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	69%	76%	71.8%±5.0	50% ▼
Body	10%	61%	61%	59.5%±9.1	0% ▼
T	37%	70%	72%	70.3%±5.4	50% ▲

Optimal v Aslan Karatsev: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Aslan Karatsev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−0.3	+2.3	+6.2±2.2
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.5	+1.9	+3.2	+10.6±3.9
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−1.7	+3.3	+3.3±4.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	−0.9	+0.5	−4.6±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.1±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (426 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	+0.9	+2.3	+9.6±2.1
BH crosscourt	23%	+8.8	+2.6	+3.3	+14.6±3.0
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−1.3	+0.2	−5.3±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−2.1	+0.7	−0.9±3.0
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	−0.2	+4.0	+8.0±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.4±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (459 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
FH through the middle	58%	−3.5	−1.0	−2.1	−6.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	30%	−0.2	−1.6	−1.3	−3.1±4.2
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	−1.2	+0.1	−2.9±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (109 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Joao	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−2.1	−0.3	−5.3±2.1
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	+0.1	+0.6	+1.8±2.8
BH down the line	20%	−0.2	−2.4	−0.5	−3.1±4.9
BH slice through the middle	6%	−11.3	−0.6	±0.0	−11.9±1.6
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+1.2	+0.1	+2.2±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (336 returns charted)

Joao Fonseca returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aslan	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	+1.9	±0.0	+6.2±2.2
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+3.7	−2.1	+7.1±4.2
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−1.3	+0.4	−5.2±2.2
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+6.9	−2.3	+6.3±4.3
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+2.6	−1.3	−2.9±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (792 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aslan	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+2.6	+1.2	+10.1±2.0
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+3.2	+0.5	+12.4±3.1
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+6.3	+0.3	+10.8±4.5
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−1.2	−0.7	−6.0±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	+1.2	−0.4	+1.3±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (891 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aslan	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	−0.7	+0.4	−3.8±2.6
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.7	+2.4	+1.4±4.3
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+1.9	−0.4	−0.3±4.7
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	−0.1	+0.2	−12.6±1.9
FH slice down the line	3%	−9.4	+0.3	−1.1	−10.2±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (233 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Aslan	Value
BH through the middle	38%	−2.9	−0.6	+0.9	−2.6±1.9
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.0	−1.2	±0.0	−0.2±2.8
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+0.7	−3.3	−2.8±4.9
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	−1.2	+0.4	−3.7±2.2
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	+0.5	+2.4	+3.4±4.3

Lean FH inside-in: +5.2±4.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (627 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Aslan Karatsev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	+3.9±3.1	+0.3	+3.7
BH to their forehand · return +1	+3.6±6.5	+1.7	+1.9
FH to the middle · return +1	+1.0±3.4	−0.6	+1.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.8±3.6	+1.5	−0.7
FH to their forehand · return	+0.8±5.1	+1.7	−1.0
FH to their backhand · return	+0.4±4.4	−0.7	+1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−7.6±4.1	−4.9	−2.7
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.9±3.5	−4.1	−2.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.8±3.2	−2.6	−2.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.6±2.4	−4.0	−0.6
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.2±3.7	−3.2	−0.9

Joao Fonseca

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+6.5±4.3	+1.8	+4.7
BH to their backhand · return	+4.1±3.3	+3.0	+1.1
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.3±6.1	+1.5	+1.9
FH to their forehand · return +1	+3.0±5.0	+0.4	+2.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.9±3.9	+0.2	+2.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.7±3.8	+0.8	+1.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−8.9±4.8	+1.6	−10.6
FH slice to the middle · rally	−7.0±3.9	−5.1	−1.9
BH to their backhand · return +1	−5.2±3.8	−1.3	−3.9
BH slice to the middle · rally	−4.4±2.9	−3.3	−1.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.0±3.2	−1.9	−2.1

Against Joao Fonseca-like opponents

Aslan Karatsev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.1%	36.2%
Players most similar to Joao Fonseca	2	58.6%	27.1%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Hubert Hurkacz, Fabian Marozsan, Sebastian Korda, Alexei Popyrin, Laslo Djere, Kei Nishikori, Dominic Thiem, Fernando Verdasco, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Philipp Kohlschreiber. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.