Game plan

Carlos Alcaraz v Marat Safin

Every number combines what Carlos Alcaraz does well with what Marat Safin allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Carlos Alcaraz wins, best of 3 63%90%: 42%–81% · best of 5: 67%

Serve points won 64.4% / 61.6% Carlos / Marat · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 70%serve 66.2% / 62.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Carlos Alcaraz's record against Marat Safin's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −6.5 on serve, +1.3 on return vs expectation (1244 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Carlos	Marat
Direction choice	+0.08 ±0.03 better than 77%	+0.12 ±0.04 better than 84%
Shot selection	+0.20 ±0.07 better than 73%	−0.07 ±0.10 better than 44%
Execution	+0.54 ±0.21 better than 85%	−0.19 ±0.22 better than 58%
Points left on the table	2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70%	2.39 ±0.07 lower than 74%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Carlos Alcaraz serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Marat	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	73%	72%	72.3%±2.5	59% ▲
Body	18%	67%	64%	67.8%±4.7	4% ▼
T	37%	77%	75%	76.5%±2.5	37%

Optimal v Marat Safin: +0.2±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Marat	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	71%	70.3%±2.6	50%
Body	16%	66%	65%	67.7%±5.3	3% ▼
T	34%	72%	73%	73.3%±2.8	47% ▲

Optimal v Marat Safin: +0.4±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Marat Safin serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marat wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	76%	66%	70.4%±2.9	49% ▲
Body	7%	67%	61%	64.8%±5.9	1% ▼
T	57%	77%	68%	70.3%±2.6	50% ▼

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marat wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	74%	67%	68.6%±2.8	53%
Body	6%	73%	58%	69.3%±6.3	19% ▲
T	41%	75%	65%	68.3%±3.1	28% ▼

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Carlos Alcaraz returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+1.2	−1.6	+3.8±1.3
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.3	−3.1	+3.8±2.6
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+1.2	−4.0	−1.1±2.8
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.6	−3.4±1.8
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+0.8	+0.5	−3.0±3.1

Lean FH through the middle: +1.7±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.0	−1.7	+5.7±1.3
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	+1.5	−3.5	+6.9±1.9
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.3	+1.0	−5.5±1.5
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	−0.5	−3.0	+0.7±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.3	±0.0	−0.7±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.2±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.5	−1.0	+0.1	−4.4±1.7
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.2	+0.4	−0.1±2.9
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	−1.0	−0.6	−3.3±3.6
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	+3.1	−10.4±2.3
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−1.6	+0.6	−10.5±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marat	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+0.1	−0.5	+0.6±1.5
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	−2.1	+0.3	−4.7±1.2
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.4	−2.4	−1.2±3.8
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	±0.0	+0.1	−2.8±1.7
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	−1.5	+0.4	−0.5±3.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.1±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)

Marat Safin returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−1.5	+0.5	+3.3±1.2
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+1.4	+1.0	+4.0±2.5
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	−2.1	+0.8	+4.2±2.4
FH slice through the middle	5%	−4.2	+0.7	−1.5	−5.1±1.9
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−0.1	+0.9	−3.5±3.1
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	−0.1	+0.4	+6.9±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +3.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1806 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	−0.6	+0.7	+8.9±1.6
BH through the middle	34%	+6.4	−0.5	+0.4	+6.3±1.2
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−3.7	−2.8	−10.7±1.8
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.1	+0.1	+4.3±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−5.2	−0.4	−5.0±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.2±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1839 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.6	+0.1	−1.8±1.7
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	±0.0	−1.0	−1.3±3.3
FH down the line	23%	−1.8	−0.8	−2.0	−4.6±3.5
BH inside-in	2%	+2.5	−2.6	−0.2	−0.4±2.3
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.0	−1.2	±0.0±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (678 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH crosscourt	49%	+1.0	−0.4	−0.2	+0.4±1.4
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−0.6	−1.2	−4.7±1.2
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+1.7	−1.6	±0.0±3.6
BH slice through the middle	1%	−11.3	−0.4	−3.6	−15.3±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	0%	−4.0	+0.4	−2.1	−5.7±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.1±0.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1511 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Carlos Alcaraz

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1	+8.9±5.9	+6.5	+2.4
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+8.0±7.3	+7.4	+0.6
FH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+6.5±7.3	+1.6	+4.8
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+6.1±7.1	+4.7	+1.4
BH drop shot to their forehand · rally	+4.8±5.8	+0.5	+4.3
FH slice to their forehand · rally	+4.7±4.3	+4.0	+0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · return	−13.3±4.8	−7.6	−5.6
BH to their forehand · rally	−7.1±4.8	−0.8	−6.2
FH to their backhand · return	−5.5±4.5	−0.9	−4.6
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	−5.1±7.6	+1.2	−6.3
BH to their forehand · return	−4.5±5.4	±0.0	−4.4

Marat Safin

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to the middle · rally	+7.7±6.5	+5.4	+2.2
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+3.2±6.9	−0.4	+3.6
FH slice to the middle · rally	+0.3±3.7	+1.8	−1.4
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.1±3.2	−0.1	+0.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+0.1±4.2	+0.8	−0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.3±2.6	−1.6	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−15.5±7.2	−9.7	−5.8
FH to their backhand · rally	−9.6±3.5	−6.9	−2.7
BH slice to the middle · rally	−8.4±2.8	−3.5	−4.9
FH to their backhand · return	−8.1±4.7	−5.5	−2.6
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−7.6±4.3	−7.3	−0.3

Against Marat Safin-like opponents

Carlos Alcaraz v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.5%	41.2%
Players most similar to Marat Safin	7	59.4%	41.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Sebastian Korda, Jack Draper, Borna Coric, David Goffin, Viktor Troicki, Janko Tipsarevic, Marcos Baghdatis, Nicolas Almagro, David Nalbandian, Gustavo Kuerten. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.